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What "Brexit Means Brexit" Means to Citizens

“英国脱欧意味着英国脱欧”对公民意味着什么

基本信息

批准号：
ES/R000573/1
负责人：
Sara Hobolt
金额：
$ 15.39万
依托单位：
London School of Economics and Political Science
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FR000573%2F1
关键词：
What Brexit Means Citizens

项目摘要

In the referendum on 23 June 2016 voters gave the British government a mandate for Britain to be the first country to ever leave the EU. Yet, the options of 'leave' or 'remain' do not give clear guidance as to what kind of Brexit people want or will accept. At the heart of this research project is a question of huge importance to policy-makers: which negotiation outcomes will be considered legitimate by the British public? The negotiations ahead involve an array of complex policy questions, including the much debated trade-off over whether the government should prioritise controlling the inflow of EU immigrants or preferential trade agreements with the EU. But there are many other policy choices that relate to EU budget contributions, EU subsidies, financial services, jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and so on. None of these featured on the referendum ballot, nor are they issues that most people gave much thought to in advance of the referendum. This project therefore aims to shed light on the question of what the Prime Minister's repeated dictum - 'Brexit Means Brexit' - actually means to ordinary people. What expectations do voters, both Leavers and Remainers, have of Brexit, what process do they want the negotiations to take and ultimately what outcome do they want? We also aim to advance our broader knowledge of how people form policy attitudes. Alongside self-interest, the dominant explanation of attitude formation is that people rely on informational short-cuts, typically cues from political parties. But the EU referendum is a situation in which the two largest parties - Labour and the Conservatives - were openly split internally before the vote and are still divided on the nature of Brexit. We argue that people are also responsive to other cues. These are both social and political in nature. The former are cues about what other types of people in similar social groups think. The latter are based around political divisions based on new opinion based groups formed around the distinction between Leavers and Remainers. Our aim is to thus gather new information on people's views about the Brexit negotiations, but also shed light on what types of social and political cues shape these opinions. In close collaboration with the 'UK in a Changing Europe' programme, we will disseminate information on people's expectations of Brexit by focusing on three crucial questions: What, Why and With What Consequence.- What do people expect of Brexit, what process do they want the negotiations to take and what are their preferred outcomes? - Why, and how, do people arrive at positions on these complex policy issues? - What are the consequences of these expectations and preferences for the negotiation positions of policy-makers and the legitimacy of the Brexit outcome?To address these three core questions, we make use of state-of-the-art survey and experimental methods in collaboration with YouGov, a leading online polling company. These methods include 1) conjoint analysis, an innovative experimental design that enables us to determine how people value different features of complex Brexit trade-offs; 2) survey experiments that allow us to causally examine how different in-group cues affect opinions, and 3) a three-wave survey panel, with an oversample of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, that allows us to study the dynamics of public opinion over the course of the Brexit negotiations, as well as heterogeneity in opinions by social group and national identity. We aim to contribute to the public debate on Brexit, through a series of on-going public events, briefings, blog posts and media appearances, and also contribute to the scholarly debate on how citizens form opinions on complex policy issues.

在2016年6月23日的公投中，选民授权英国政府成为第一个离开欧盟的国家。然而，“离开”或“留下”的选择并没有明确指导人们想要或将接受什么样的英国退欧。这个研究项目的核心是一个对政策制定者非常重要的问题：英国公众将认为哪些谈判结果是合法的？未来的谈判涉及一系列复杂的政策问题，包括政府是否应该优先控制欧盟移民的流入或与欧盟的优惠贸易协定。但还有许多其他政策选择，涉及欧盟预算贡献、欧盟补贴、金融服务、欧洲法院的管辖权等，但这些都没有出现在公投选票上，也不是大多数人在公投前考虑过的问题。因此，该项目旨在阐明首相反复强调的格言“Brexit Means Brexit”对普通人的实际意义。选民，无论是脱欧者还是留欧者，对英国脱欧有什么期望，他们希望谈判采取什么进程，最终他们想要什么结果？我们的目标还包括更广泛地了解人们如何形成政策态度。除了自我利益，态度形成的主要解释是人们依赖于信息捷径，通常是来自政党的线索。但欧盟公投是这样一种情况，两个最大的政党--工党和保守党--在投票前就公开内部分裂，目前仍在英国脱欧的性质上存在分歧。我们认为人们也会对其他线索做出反应。这些都是社会和政治性质的。前者是关于类似社会群体中其他类型的人的想法的线索。后者是基于政治分歧的基础上形成的新的意见为基础的群体之间的区别离开和留欧派。我们的目的是收集有关人们对英国脱欧谈判的看法的新信息，同时也揭示了哪些类型的社会和政治线索塑造了这些意见。在与“英国在不断变化的欧洲”计划的密切合作，我们将通过关注三个关键问题来传播人们对英国脱欧的期望信息：什么，为什么和后果。人们对英国脱欧有什么期望，他们希望谈判采取什么进程，他们更喜欢的结果是什么？- 人们为什么以及如何在这些复杂的政策问题上达成立场？- 这些期望和偏好对政策制定者的谈判立场以及英国退欧结果的合法性有什么影响？为了解决这三个核心问题，我们与领先的在线民意调查公司YouGov合作，利用最先进的调查和实验方法。这些方法包括1）联合分析，这是一种创新的实验设计，使我们能够确定人们如何评估复杂的英国退欧权衡的不同特征; 2）调查实验，使我们能够因果地检查不同的群体内线索如何影响意见，3）三波调查小组，苏格兰，威尔士和北方爱尔兰的过度样本，这使我们能够研究英国脱欧谈判过程中公众舆论的动态，以及社会群体和国家认同的意见异质性。我们的目标是通过一系列正在进行的公共活动，简报，博客文章和媒体露面，为英国脱欧的公共辩论做出贡献，并有助于公民如何形成对复杂政策问题的意见的学术辩论。