Public Opinion and Public Policy in Post-Brexit Post-Pandemic Britain

英国脱欧现在经常被视为已经完成和尘埃落定。那些投票支持留欧的人（据说）他们已经适应了这一结果，工党和自由民主党都不热衷于重新讨论这个问题，而英国政府则热衷于利用脱离欧盟单一市场和关税同盟所带来的“机会”。但实际上，民意调查和调查数据表明，选民们在英国应该留在欧盟内部还是离开欧盟方面仍然势均力敌，迄今为止，他们经常怀疑其后果，并且他们并不总是支持偏离欧盟单一市场监管规则的建议。与此同时，在苏格兰和北方爱尔兰，对留在英国的支持都有所下降，这两个地区的多数人都投票留在英国。与此同时，由于COVID-19大流行及其后果，加上乌克兰战争，英国脱欧正在与2016年公投时截然不同的情况下实施，包括通货膨胀螺旋，劳动力市场紧张和地缘战略环境变化，这一事态发展可能会影响选民对英国退欧的最终判断。这些考虑因素表明，公众如何看待英国退欧--从而在多大程度上影响2016年公投（目前实施的）将为英国与欧盟的关系问题提供一个持久的解决方案-不应被视为理所当然。为了让公众就此议题进行辩论，本项目将绘制及分析英国退欧后主要公众态度及评价的趋势，并评估这些态度及评价可能受到（i）COVID-19大流行及其经济后果，及（ii）乌克兰战争的影响程度。它将特别审查：（i）英国脱欧是否被视为成功或失败，以及这种评估对欧盟内部或外部支持程度的影响（如果有的话），（ii）公众对英国退出欧盟后对英国开放的一些监管政策选择的态度，（iii）英国脱欧和相关的“文化战争”问题可能在多大程度上继续影响政党选择，以及（iv）苏格兰人如何评估一方面是英国的一部分而不是欧盟的一部分与另一方面是一个独立的国家而不是欧盟的一部分的比较后果。这些主题将通过原始调查工作，对其他相关学术调查的重新分析，以及整理和分析有关的商业调查数据。作为“变化中的欧洲中的英国”倡议的一个奖学金，该项目的主要受众是政策制定者、媒体和感兴趣的公众。为此，将通过两个现有网站（whatukthinks.org/eu和whatscotlandthinks.org）以及一个公共介绍/网络研讨会、播客和媒体参与方案，并以更正式的学术出版物为基础，随时提供其产出和分析。

Brexit is now often presented as being done and dusted. Those who voted Remain have (it is said) accommodated themselves to the outcome, neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats are keen to revisit the issue, while the UK government is keen to exploit the 'opportunities' that being outside the EU single market and customs union affords.Yet in practice, polling and survey data suggest that voters are still evenly divided on whether the UK should be inside or outside the EU, that they are often doubtful of its consequences to date, and that they are not always supportive of proposals for divergence from the regulatory rules of the EU single market. Meanwhile, support for remaining part of the UK has fallen in both Scotland and Northern Ireland, in both of which a majority voted Remain. At the same time, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, together with the Ukraine war, Brexit is being implemented in very different circumstances from those that pertained at the time of the 2016 referendum, including an inflationary spiral, a tight labour market and a changed geo-strategic environment, a development that may influence voters' eventual judgement of Brexit.These considerations suggest that how the public view Brexit - and thus the extent to which the 2016 referendum (as currently implemented) will provide a lasting resolution of the question of the UK's relationship with the EU - should not be taken for granted. With a view to informing public debate on the subject, this project will chart and analyse trends in key public attitudes and evaluations following the implementation of Brexit, and assess how far those attitudes and evaluations may have been affected by (i) the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic aftermath, and (ii) the Ukraine war. It will examine in particular:(i) whether Brexit comes to be regarded as a success or a failure and the impact, if any, this evaluation has on levels of support for being inside or outside the EU,(ii) public attitudes towards some of the regulatory policy choices open to the UK following its exit from the EU,(iii) to what extent Brexit and associated 'culture war' issues might continue to influence party choice, and(iv) how people in Scotland evaluate the comparative consequences of being, on the one hand, part of the UK and outside the EU versus, on the other, being an independent country and part of the EU.These topics will be pursued through original survey work, the reanalysis of other relevant academic surveys, and collating and analysing relevant commercial polling data. As a fellowship of 'The UK in a Changing Europe' initiative, the project's principal audiences are policy makers, the media, and the interested public. To that end, its outputs and analysis will be made readily available via two existing websites, whatukthinks.org/eu and whatscotlandthinks.org, and a programme of public presentations/webinars, podcasts, and media engagement, underpinned by more formal academic publications.