Social and Economic Implications of Transport Sharing and Automation

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This study will link the changing nature of jobs due to automation and the platform economy to regional infrastructure planning and transport operations, and the role specifically of transport automation within this context. The patterns and forms of jobs are changing due to many different reasons, leading to non-traditional work schedules and differences in commuting patterns, non-standard work travel patterns, and even elimination of certain jobs and creation of new ones, with significant implications for regional infrastructure planning and transport operations. At the same time, there are enormous changes anticipated in infrastructure and operations, due to large-scale automation in the transport sector (eg autonomous and connected vehicles). This project will make estimates of the changing nature of jobs due to these considerations at the regional level towards the goal of deriving the transport and regional infrastructural planning consequences. The project will use labour market survey data as well as privately-held labour market data on jobs, skills and industry to estimate regional variations due to these trends, given regional industry-occupation mix. These changes will be linked to the Spatial Urban Data System (SUDS), which is a UK-wide geospatial data infrastructure under development within UBDC containing transport infrastructural and operational conditions. , and which has been recently used to identify areas of transport poverty throughout the UK and the extent to which and which we will expand through work with the project's industrial partners. Using these data sources, we will identify regional automation risks due to unique industry and skill concentrations and derive transport and infrastructure planning implications. Within this context, we will also evaluate the role of autonomous vehicles given potentially different commuting patterns using specialist transport simulation models. We will further develop specialist transport simulation models to ascertain which packages of "last-mile" transport solutions (low-energy station cars, autonomous vehicles, shared transport, active travel and demand-response services) are likely to bring about high-quality, sustainable and socially-equitable forms of transport accessibility in areas at risk of changing nature of jobs. We will then combine the results of our various model scenarios, using ensemble forecasting methods utilising Bayesian Model Averaging or related techniques to ascertain which packages are more likely to bring about high-quality transport accessibility in the selected areas.