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SBE-RCUK Lead Agency: The Geopolitical Orientations of Russia's Neighboring State Populations

SBE-RCUK 牵头机构：俄罗斯邻国人口的地缘政治取向

基本信息

批准号：
ES/S005919/1
负责人：
Kristin Marie Bakke
金额：
$ 46.98万
依托单位：
University College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FS005919%2F1
关键词：
SBE RCUK Lead Agency Geopolitical

项目摘要

This research project will produce a detailed portrait of the geopolitical orientations of the populations in the countries across the post-Soviet regions of Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. The investigators will systematically explain the reasons for such orientations, including pro and anti-Russian and Western opinions, and they will consider the consistency of these orientations in the context of significant domestic political changes, regional economic disparities, sizable population movements and geopolitical shifts, and possible continuation or spreading of violent confrontations between Russian and Western-backed forces across the Eurasian region. The project will contribute to understanding the political dynamics of successor states of the former Soviet Union as they negotiate imperial legacies, economic interdependence, and dynamic geopolitical competition and change in the region. In contrast with standard international relations approaches, which tend to focus on elite politics within states and large state geopolitical competition over these states and contested separatist region, the project will focus on enhancing knowledge about the attitudes and beliefs of ordinary residents of these polities with respect to both domestic and foreign politics. The increased understanding of the geopolitical orientations of residents along Russia's borderland states will provide valuable new insights to inform the development and conduct of foreign policy in the United Kingdom, the United States, and and other nations. Project findings will help increase on-the-ground familiarity and domestic considerations of foreign-policy choices in regions at a time of polarization, suspicion, crisis, and uncertainty. Indeed, scholars, policy makers, and the public have increased their interest in Russia's exercise of "soft power," the expansion of its influence through persuasion and attraction rather than military or economic pressure. Yet the reaction to these efforts by the populations in non-Russian parts of the former Soviet Union has not been comprehensively or intensively measured, however. This project will examine how the geopolitical crisis that began with Russia's annexation of Crimea has reshaped the geopolitical outlook of the different populations in countries and disputed territories of the former Soviet Union that border Russia. Critical to the future of the region is competition for influence between Russian and its Western competitors for building and maintaining a sphere of influence. The project will focus on the political attitudes and identifications of ordinary people, not state elites. The investigators who are collaborating in the conduct of this project are political geographers and political scientists from the United States and the United Kingdom who are experts in post-Soviet affairs. They will conduct a simultaneous set of public opinion surveys of seven independent states, four existing de facto republics in separatist regions, and two contested territories within Ukraine. The investigators will examine the media output across the former Soviet Union and will conduct two waves of a large public opinion survey of 13,200 respondents to gauge and understand geopolitical attitudes and orientations. They will employ a mixed-methods approach that combines the examination of cultural and news broadcasts in all the study sites and quantitative analysis of data from a two-wave survey panel.

该研究项目将详细描述后苏联时期欧洲、高加索和中亚地区各国人口的地缘政治倾向。调查人员将系统地解释这些倾向的原因，包括亲俄、反俄和西方的观点，他们将在重大的国内政治变化、区域经济差异、大规模人口流动和地缘政治变化，以及俄罗斯和西方支持的势力在欧亚地区可能继续或蔓延的暴力对抗的背景下，考虑这些倾向的一致性。该项目将有助于理解前苏联继承国的政治动态，因为他们谈判帝国遗产，经济相互依存，以及该地区动态的地缘政治竞争和变化。标准的国际关系方法倾向于关注国家内部的精英政治和大国在这些国家和有争议的分离主义地区的地缘政治竞争，与之相反，该项目将侧重于提高对这些国家的普通居民对国内外政治的态度和信仰的了解。对俄罗斯边境国家居民地缘政治取向的进一步了解，将为英国、美国和其他国家的外交政策的发展和实施提供有价值的新见解。项目研究结果将有助于在两极分化、猜疑、危机和不确定的时期，增加对地区外交政策选择的实地了解和国内考虑。事实上，学者、政策制定者和公众对俄罗斯运用“软实力”的兴趣越来越大，即通过说服和吸引力而不是军事或经济压力来扩大其影响力。然而，前苏联非俄罗斯地区的人民对这些努力的反应还没有得到全面或深入的衡量。该项目将研究以俄罗斯吞并克里米亚开始的地缘政治危机如何重塑了与俄罗斯接壤的前苏联国家和有争议领土的不同人口的地缘政治前景。对该地区未来至关重要的是俄罗斯与其西方竞争对手之间建立和维持势力范围的影响力竞争。该项目将关注普通民众的政治态度和认同，而不是国家精英。参与该项目的调查人员是来自美国和英国的政治地理学家和政治科学家，他们是后苏联时期事务方面的专家。他们将同时对七个独立国家、四个分裂地区的事实上的共和国以及乌克兰境内两个有争议的地区进行民意调查。调查人员将检查前苏联的媒体输出，并将对13,200名受访者进行两波大规模民意调查，以衡量和了解地缘政治的态度和方向。他们将采用一种混合方法，结合对所有研究地点的文化和新闻广播的检查，以及对来自两波调查小组的数据进行定量分析。