UK in a Changing Europe Fellowship

变化中的欧洲中的英国奖学金

• 批准号: ES/T000732/1
• 负责人: Meredith Crowley
• 金额: $ 62.08万
• 依托单位: University of Cambridge
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FT000732%2F1
• 关键词: UK; Changing; Europe; Fellowship

What types of trade agreements should the UK join post-Brexit? The world trading system, comprised of multilateral, mega-regional, and bilateral trade agreements offers multiple paths forward for the future of UK trade. Which path to take depends crucially upon answers to questions like: How do the complex features of overlapping international trade agreements impact the choices of globally-engaged firms? How do trade policy and commitments over domestic policy among trading partners affects firms' decisions to enter and exit foreign markets, set prices and export volumes, and adopt production technologies? The UK's future trade agreements must be crafted in a global environment in which the future direction of the world trading system is uncertain. The largest multilateral agreement, the World Trade Organization, is struggling to cope with some of the most intractable problems in international economic policy, including state support of industry and the protection of intellectual property. Mega-regional agreements, like the European Single Market, face serious complaints about rules and practices that infringe on national sovereignty and lack popular democratic support. Bilateral and smaller regional agreements are proliferating, but their value in creating trade seems to vary considerably. Under this Fellowship, I will conduct research to better understand how individual firm responses to government policy and international agreements aggregate to global trade flows and, hence, impact welfare. Firstly, I will conduct empirical research estimating a firm and product level gravity model of trade, with detailed information on bilateral tariff preferences and the content of trade agreements provisions. This project will provide valuable guidance to policymakers regarding the global input sourcing choices of UK firms and the influence that specific trade agreements provisions exert over these decisions. To evaluate the impacts of trade agreements, policymakers use standard economic models that assume markets within a country are competitive - that is, firms have no power to markup their prices over cost. I propose to build a multi-country model of trade featuring oligopolistic competition among producers charging variable markups and the use of local distribution services. Final consumer prices will thus embody foreign production costs, a global and destination-specific markup charged by the foreign producer, and a local distribution margin. Applying this model to analysis of proposed bilateral, regional, or multilateral trade agreements will highlight heterogeneity in changes to international and domestic prices across firms and industrial sectors under different types of trade agreements. Finally, I will examine firms' choices of currencies in which to invoice their international sales. International trade is founded on micro transactions in different currencies. The currency in which exporters set their prices determines the degree to which movements in exchange rates affect the relative prices of internationally traded goods with implications for how export and import volumes will respond to large exchange rate shocks. Two projects will examine how (1) competition in foreign markets influences a firm's choice of an invoicing currency and (2) the relationship between the number of different currencies a firm uses for its foreign sales and the financing available to a firm. This research will fill important gaps in policymakers' knowledge about UK trade which can be used to better predict the likely outcomes of different proposed trading arrangements. Regardless of the form Brexit takes, the need for concrete facts and more accurate models to evaluate policy is indisputable.

英国脱欧后应加入哪些类型的贸易协定？世界贸易体系由多边、大型区域和双边贸易协定组成，为英国贸易的未来提供了多种途径。选择哪条道路，关键取决于对以下问题的回答：重叠的国际贸易协定的复杂特征如何影响全球参与企业的选择？贸易伙伴之间的贸易政策和对国内政策的承诺如何影响公司进入和退出外国市场、确定价格和出口量以及采用生产技术的决定？英国未来的贸易协定必须在世界贸易体系未来方向不确定的全球环境中制定。世界贸易组织（WTO）是最大的多边协定，它正在努力科普国际经济政策中一些最棘手的问题，包括国家对工业的支持和知识产权的保护。像欧洲单一市场这样的大型区域性协议，面临着侵犯国家主权和缺乏民众民主支持的规则和做法的严重投诉。双边和较小的区域协定正在激增，但它们在创造贸易方面的价值似乎差别很大。在这个奖学金，我将进行研究，以更好地了解如何个别企业对政府政策和国际协议的反应，聚集到全球贸易流量，从而影响福利。首先，通过对双边关税优惠和贸易协定条款内容的详细信息，对企业和产品层面的贸易引力模型进行实证研究。该项目将为政策制定者提供有关英国企业全球投入采购选择以及具体贸易协定条款对这些决定的影响的宝贵指导。为了评估贸易协定的影响，政策制定者使用标准的经济模型，该模型假设一个国家的市场是竞争性的--也就是说，公司没有权力将价格提高到成本之上。我建议建立一个多国贸易模式，其特点是生产商之间的寡头竞争，收取可变的加价和使用当地的分销服务。因此，最终消费者价格将体现外国生产成本、外国生产商收取的全球和特定目的地加价以及当地分销利润。将这一模型应用于分析拟议的双边、区域或多边贸易协定，将突出不同类型贸易协定下企业和工业部门的国际和国内价格变化的异质性。最后，我将研究企业选择的货币，以发票的国际销售。国际贸易建立在不同货币的微观交易基础上。出口商定价所用的货币决定了汇率变动对国际贸易货物相对价格的影响程度，从而影响到进出口量如何应对大规模汇率冲击。两个项目将研究（1）外国市场的竞争如何影响企业对计价货币的选择，以及（2）企业用于对外销售的不同货币数量与企业可用融资之间的关系。这项研究将填补政策制定者对英国贸易知识的重要空白，这些知识可用于更好地预测不同拟议贸易安排的可能结果。无论英国脱欧采取何种形式，都需要具体的事实和更准确的模型来评估政策是无可争议的。

项目成果

The Pro-competitive Effects of Trade Agreements

贸易协定的促进竞争效应

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Crowley, M.

The Looming Threat of Tariff Hikes: Entry into Exporting under Trade Agreement Renegotiation

迫在眉睫的关税上涨威胁：贸易协定重新谈判下进入出口

• DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201020
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: AEA Papers and Proceedings
• 作者: Crowley M

The Economics of Deep Trade Agreements

深度贸易协定的经济学

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Breinlich, H.

The Economic Effects of Brexit: What have we learned?

英国脱欧的经济影响：我们学到了什么？

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Crowley, M.

Invoicing and the dynamics of pricing-to-market: Evidence from UK export prices around the Brexit referendum

发票和市场定价动态：英国脱欧公投前后英国出口价格的证据

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103570
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of International Economics
• 影响因子: 3.3
• 作者: Corsetti G