The impact of trade policy and exchange rate shocks on trade volumes and prices in post-Brexit Britain

英国脱欧后贸易政策和汇率冲击对贸易量和价格的影响

• 批准号: ES/R001553/1
• 负责人: Meredith Crowley
• 金额: $ 33.9万
• 依托单位: University of Cambridge
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FR001553%2F1
• 关键词: impact; trade; policy; exchange; rate

How will Brexit affect the development and growth of British manufacturing firms? Britain's popular referendum vote to exit from the European Union has created a great deal of uncertainty about the future of Britain's external trade relations with countries that belong to the European Union as well as with other major trading economies external to the EU, including the United States and China. With the government preparing for exit negotiations, little is known about the future external trade policy the UK government intends to establish with regard to European Union states as well as with non-EU countries.Theresa May's announcement of her intention to withdraw Britain from the single market implies that Britain will be confronted with the task of conducting its trade policy independent of the EU. The imminent de-coupling of Britain's external trade policy from that of the EU raises a host of questions about the appropriate conduct of both trade and monetary policy to serve the needs of manufacturers located in Britain and the British population. For example, the EU (inclusive of Britain) currently has in place import restrictions on products that constitute roughly 7 percent of China's exports to the EU (Bown and Crowley, 2016). When Britain formally leaves the EU, the import protection afforded by these restrictions will disappear and Britain will have to decide whether it wants to re-institute new tariffs on these goods or go forward with a freer trade policy. Key to making a sound policy choice will be an understanding of the consequences of not only any tariff imposed by Britain, but also how the existence of the EU tariff will impact Britain's trade and domestic import-competing manufacturers who have been battered by intense global competition. Other practical and pertinent questions raised by Brexit include: How much will the price of Britain's imports rise as a consequence of the pound's devaluation? How will the volume of its exports change when the relative price of its imported inputs increases and the relative price of its exports fall on world markets? Which industrial sectors will benefit the most from the competitive advantage in foreign markets arising from the pound's devaluation? How will a new EU or US import tariff on Chinese steel affect British steel manufacturers?In order to predict the impacts of trade policy and exchange rate movements on important variables like import prices and export volumes, economic models need as inputs crucial parameters like the responsiveness (elasticity) of import prices to exchange rate movements and the responsiveness (elasticity) of British imports to changes in trade policy around the globe. How to identify and estimate these crucial parameters is an open research question in economics.The proposed project will address these challenges by developing economic models and estimating the key parameters of these models in order to answer these questions. To achieve this, we will develop the implications of Corsetti and Dedola (2005) and Bown and Crowley (2007), will build upon the existing methodologies in Bown and Crowley (2006, 2007) and Crowley, Song and Meng (2016), will build new and unique datasets, and will develop novel methodologies where necessary to inform, in a timely fashion, new questions that are raised by Brexit. The proposed research would result in cutting edge, timely economic analysis and forecasts. We will proactively engage with key stakeholders of this research in a targeted and timely way, namely (1) civil servants who will need to support the design, conduct and implementation of trade and monetary policy, (2) policy makers who must decide on the design of these two areas of policy, and (3) manufacturing firms and (4) manufacturing sector workers who will be impacted by the consequences of these policy choices.

英国脱欧将如何影响英国制造业企业的发展和壮大？英国全民公投决定退出欧盟，给英国与欧盟国家以及与欧盟以外的其他主要贸易经济体(包括美国和中国)的对外贸易关系的未来带来了极大的不确定性。随着英国政府准备退出谈判，人们对英国政府打算针对欧盟国家和非欧盟国家制定的未来对外贸易政策知之甚少。特雷莎·梅宣布打算让英国退出单一市场，这意味着英国将面临独立于欧盟执行贸易政策的任务。英国的对外贸易政策即将与欧盟脱钩，这引发了一系列问题，即贸易和货币政策应如何恰当地实施，以满足位于英国的制造商和英国民众的需求。例如，欧盟(包括英国)目前对中国对欧盟出口的产品实施进口限制，这些产品约占中国对欧盟出口的7%(鲍恩和克劳利，2016年)。当英国正式退出欧盟时，这些限制提供的进口保护将消失，英国将不得不决定是要对这些商品重新征收新关税，还是要推进更自由的贸易政策。做出合理政策选择的关键将是不仅要了解英国征收的任何关税的后果，还要了解欧盟关税的存在将如何影响英国的贸易和受到激烈全球竞争打击的国内进口竞争制造商。英国退欧引发的其他实际和中肯的问题包括：英镑贬值会使英国进口商品的价格上涨多少？当其进口投入品的相对价格上升，而其出口的相对价格在世界市场上下降时，其出口量将如何变化？哪些行业将从英镑贬值带来的海外市场竞争优势中受益最大？欧盟或美国对中国钢铁征收的新进口关税将如何影响英国钢铁制造商？为了预测贸易政策和汇率变动对进口价格和出口量等重要变量的影响，经济模型需要输入关键参数，如进口价格对汇率变动的反应(弹性)，以及英国进口对全球贸易政策变化的反应(弹性)。如何识别和估计这些关键参数在经济学中是一个开放的研究问题。拟议的项目将通过开发经济模型和估计这些模型的关键参数来解决这些挑战，以回答这些问题。为了实现这一目标，我们将发展Corsetti and Dedola(2005)和Bown and Crowley(2007)的影响，将在Bown and Crowley(2006、2007)和Crowley，Song and Meng(2016)现有方法的基础上发展，将建立新的和独特的数据集，并将在必要时开发新的方法，以及时告知英国脱欧带来的新问题。拟议的研究将产生尖端的、及时的经济分析和预测。我们将以有针对性和及时的方式，主动与这项研究的主要利益相关者接触，即(1)需要支持贸易和货币政策的设计、实施和实施的公务员，(2)必须决定这两个政策领域的设计的政策制定者，以及(3)将受到这些政策选择后果影响的制造业公司和(4)制造业工人。

项目成果

Invoicing and the dynamics of pricing-to-market: Evidence from UK export prices around the Brexit referendum

发票和市场定价动态：英国脱欧公投前后英国出口价格的证据

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103570
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of International Economics
• 影响因子: 3.3
• 作者: Corsetti G

Invoicing and Pricing-to-Market - A Study of Price and Markup Elasticities of UK Exporters

发票和市场定价 - 英国出口商的价格和加价弹性研究

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Corsetti, G.,

Markets and Markups: A New Empirical Framework and Evidence on Exporters from China

• DOI: 10.17863/cam.21789
• 发表时间: 2018-02
• 期刊: SSRN Electronic Journal
• 作者: G. Corsetti;Meredith A. Crowley;Lu Han;Huasheng Song