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Post-Brexit trade and investment: explaining the issues, formulating trade agreements and understanding the effect on UK foreign direct investment

英国脱欧后的贸易和投资：解释问题、制定贸易协定并了解对英国外国直接投资的影响

基本信息

批准号：
ES/T002050/1
负责人：
Leonard Winters
金额：
$ 17.42万
依托单位：
University of Sussex
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FT002050%2F1
关键词：
Post Brexit trade investment explaining

项目摘要

This proposal describes three exercises designed to advance the public understanding of and policy-making engagement with the Brexit process. Video Explainers:Since early 2017, the UKTPO has produced four three-minute animated videos that help to explain the issues and the effects of Brexit. These have enabled complex issues to be presented in an engaging and comprehensible manner. They have reached wide audiences and, through this, may have helped to inform public opinion and affect political decisions. They take great care to use layman's terms and avoid complex terminology and jargon. We propose to issue four new videos over the next eight months. Brexit defies prediction, but all animations will be on highly pertinent issues in current debates that are not fully understood by many policymakers, MPs, journalists and the public. Our initial list is:- Tracing Brexit effects to constituency level.- Rolling over existing trade agreements.- Trade remedies.- EU trade negotiating structures.Each video will be published on the University of Sussex's Vimeo and You Tube channels, the UK Trade Policy Observatory website and UK in a Changing Europe's website. Each will be accompanied by a press release to the UKTPO's media contacts and notification to the UKTPO's list of 1000+contacts. Each will also be posted on the University of Sussex social media accounts (Twitter and Facebook) and the UKTPO's Twitter account. It is hoped that UKiCE would also share the videos across their social media platforms. Brexit and Foreign Direct Investment: UKTPO research has already shown that, after the referendum, aggregate FDI declined relative to expectations (Briefing Paper No. 23). In addition, certain car manufacturers made clear that Brexit is at least a contextual factor behind their decisions to run down UK operations. We aim to extend this work, first by disentangling decisions deriving from the general uncertainty of the Brexit process from those reflecting the erosion of the UK's attraction as an export-platform. A partial approach to this will be to relate the extent of the exit to the potential change in trading conditions post-Brexit. For example, in goods it may relate to the tariffs that would follow a 'no-deal' Brexit; in services, the loss of the Single Market will similarly impede UK access to EU markets to degrees that vary across sectors. In addition, we will compare firms' investment in the UK with that elsewhere (EU and non-EU) and also explore differences between greenfield FDI and M&A FDI. Rules of Thumb for prioritising FTAs: DIT has informally expressed interest in having such guidance. Obviously political dimensions are important but simple rules of thumb (or a checklist) of economic factors, which could be used by non-specialists, would be a useful supplement. Some UKTPO Fellows created one such set of rules in 2004. Experience since the Brexit referendum has suggested that the current rules need to be updated to reflect recent developments in theory, data and patterns of world trade. The aim is to create an operational bridge between simple clear concepts and identifiable data. As well as obvious issues such as proximity, size, existing levels of trade and protection and the similarity of income levels, social norms and regulatory regimes - all of which require quite subtle handling to relate rules of thumb to economic welfare - we will specifically add services, FDI and value-chains to the mix.The output would be a short analytical manual accompanied by guidance on available data. To the maximum extent possible the measures recommended will be operationalised in the TradeSift software, which has been developed by some UKTPO Fellows. The intended users are government officials with time and budget pressures, think tank analysts and academics teaching non-modelling courses.

这项提案描述了三项旨在促进公众对英国退欧进程的理解和决策参与的活动。视频解说员：自2017年初以来，英国贸易保护局已经制作了四个3分钟的动画视频，帮助解释英国退欧的问题和影响。这些使复杂的问题能够以引人入胜和易于理解的方式提出。他们已经接触到了广泛的受众，并通过这一点，可能有助于告知公众舆论并影响政治决策。他们非常注意使用外行术语，避免使用复杂的术语和行话。我们建议在未来八个月内发行四个新的录像带。英国退欧是无法预测的，但在当前的辩论中，所有动画都将围绕高度相关的问题展开，而许多政策制定者、议员、记者和公众并没有完全理解这些问题。我们最初的清单是：-追踪英国退欧对选区的影响。-滚动现有的贸易协定。-贸易补救措施。-欧盟贸易谈判结构。每段视频都将在苏塞克斯大学的Vimeo和You Tube频道、英国贸易政策观察站网站和英国变化中的欧洲的网站上发布。每一份都将伴随着一份新闻稿，发给英国旅游和旅游局的媒体联系人，并通知英国旅游和旅游事务署的1000多名联系人。它们还将被发布在苏塞克斯大学的社交媒体账户(Twitter和Facebook)和UKTPO的Twitter账户上。希望UKiCE也能在他们的社交媒体平台上分享这些视频。英国脱欧与外国直接投资：UKTPO的研究已经表明，公投后，外国直接投资总额相对于预期有所下降(简报文件第23号)。此外，某些汽车制造商明确表示，英国退欧至少是他们决定减少英国业务背后的一个背景因素。我们的目标是扩大这项工作，首先将英国退欧进程普遍存在不确定性的决定与那些反映英国作为出口平台吸引力下降的决定区分开来。解决这一问题的一种局部方法是，将退出的程度与英国退欧后交易条件的潜在变化联系起来。例如，在商品领域，这可能与英国在没有达成协议的英国退欧后征收的关税有关；在服务领域，单一市场的丧失同样将阻碍英国进入欧盟市场，程度因行业而异。此外，我们还将比较企业在英国和其他地方(欧盟和非欧盟)的投资，并探索绿地FDI和并购FDI之间的差异。确定自贸协定优先顺序的经验法则：DIT已非正式地表示有兴趣提供此类指导。显然，政治层面很重要，但简单的经济因素经验法则(或清单)将是一个有用的补充，非专业人士可以使用这些规则。一些UKTPO研究员在2004年制定了一套这样的规则。英国退欧公投以来的经验表明，当前的规则需要更新，以反映世界贸易理论、数据和模式的最新发展。其目的是在简单、清晰的概念和可识别的数据之间建立一座可操作的桥梁。除了明显的问题，如接近程度、规模、现有的贸易和保护水平，以及收入水平、社会规范和监管制度的相似性--所有这些都需要非常微妙的处理，以将经验法则与经济福利联系起来--我们将专门将服务业、外国直接投资和价值链加入其中。产出将是一本简短的分析手册，并附有关于可用数据的指导。建议的措施将最大限度地在TradeSift软件中实施，该软件是由英国贸易和贸易组织的一些研究员开发的。目标用户是有时间和预算压力的政府官员、智库分析师和教授非建模课程的学者。