Post-Brexit trade and investment: explaining the issues, formulating trade agreements and understanding the effect on UK foreign direct investment

该提案描述了旨在促进公众对英国脱欧进程的理解和决策参与的三项活动。自2017年初以来，UKTPO制作了四个三分钟的动画视频，帮助解释英国脱欧的问题和影响。这使得复杂的问题能够以引人入胜和易于理解的方式提出。它们已触及广泛的受众，并通过这一点，可能有助于向公众舆论提供信息和影响政治决定。他们非常注意使用外行的术语，避免复杂的术语和行话。我们计划在未来八个月内发行四部新的录像带。英国脱欧是无法预测的，但所有动画都将涉及当前辩论中高度相关的问题，而这些问题并没有被许多政策制定者、议员、记者和公众完全理解。我们的初步名单是：-追踪英国脱欧对选区的影响。在现有的贸易协定上延期。贸易救济。欧盟贸易谈判结构。每个视频将发布在苏塞克斯大学的Vimeo和You Tube频道，英国贸易政策观察网站和英国在一个不断变化的欧洲的网站。每一个都将伴随着一个新闻稿给UKTPO的媒体联系人和通知UKTPO的1000+联系人名单。每个也将张贴在苏塞克斯大学的社交媒体帐户（Twitter和Facebook）和UKTPO的Twitter帐户。希望UKiCE也能在其社交媒体平台上分享这些视频。英国脱欧和外国直接投资：UKTPO的研究已经表明，公投后，外国直接投资总额相对于预期有所下降（简报第23号）。此外，某些汽车制造商明确表示，英国脱欧至少是他们决定削减英国业务的背景因素。我们的目标是扩展这项工作，首先是将英国脱欧进程的普遍不确定性所产生的决定与反映英国作为出口平台的吸引力减弱的决定分开。对此的部分方法是将退出的程度与英国退欧后交易条件的潜在变化联系起来。例如，在商品方面，它可能与“无协议”脱欧后的关税有关;在服务方面，失去单一市场同样会阻碍英国进入欧盟市场，其程度因行业而异。此外，我们还将比较企业在英国的投资与其他地方（欧盟和非欧盟）的投资，并探讨格林菲尔德FDI与M&A FDI之间的差异。优先考虑自由贸易协定的经验法则：信息技术部已非正式地表示有兴趣获得此类指导。显然，政治因素是重要的，但非专家可以使用的经济因素的简单经验法则（或清单）将是有益的补充。2004年，英国知识产权组织的一些研究员制定了一套这样的规则。自英国脱欧公投以来的经验表明，需要更新现行规则，以反映世界贸易理论、数据和模式的最新发展。其目的是在简单明确的概念和可识别的数据之间建立一个可操作的桥梁。除了邻近性、规模、现有的贸易和保护水平以及收入水平、社会规范和监管制度的相似性等明显问题外--所有这些都需要相当微妙的处理，才能将经验法则与经济福利联系起来--我们还将特别将服务、外国直接投资和价值链纳入其中，产出将是一份简短的分析手册，并附有对现有数据的指导。建议的措施将尽最大可能在贸易筛选软件中实施，该软件是由英国贸易政策组织的一些研究员开发的。预期用户是有时间和预算压力的政府官员、智囊团分析师和教授非建模课程的学者。

This proposal describes three exercises designed to advance the public understanding of and policy-making engagement with the Brexit process. Video Explainers:Since early 2017, the UKTPO has produced four three-minute animated videos that help to explain the issues and the effects of Brexit. These have enabled complex issues to be presented in an engaging and comprehensible manner. They have reached wide audiences and, through this, may have helped to inform public opinion and affect political decisions. They take great care to use layman's terms and avoid complex terminology and jargon. We propose to issue four new videos over the next eight months. Brexit defies prediction, but all animations will be on highly pertinent issues in current debates that are not fully understood by many policymakers, MPs, journalists and the public. Our initial list is:- Tracing Brexit effects to constituency level.- Rolling over existing trade agreements.- Trade remedies.- EU trade negotiating structures.Each video will be published on the University of Sussex's Vimeo and You Tube channels, the UK Trade Policy Observatory website and UK in a Changing Europe's website. Each will be accompanied by a press release to the UKTPO's media contacts and notification to the UKTPO's list of 1000+contacts. Each will also be posted on the University of Sussex social media accounts (Twitter and Facebook) and the UKTPO's Twitter account. It is hoped that UKiCE would also share the videos across their social media platforms. Brexit and Foreign Direct Investment: UKTPO research has already shown that, after the referendum, aggregate FDI declined relative to expectations (Briefing Paper No. 23). In addition, certain car manufacturers made clear that Brexit is at least a contextual factor behind their decisions to run down UK operations. We aim to extend this work, first by disentangling decisions deriving from the general uncertainty of the Brexit process from those reflecting the erosion of the UK's attraction as an export-platform. A partial approach to this will be to relate the extent of the exit to the potential change in trading conditions post-Brexit. For example, in goods it may relate to the tariffs that would follow a 'no-deal' Brexit; in services, the loss of the Single Market will similarly impede UK access to EU markets to degrees that vary across sectors. In addition, we will compare firms' investment in the UK with that elsewhere (EU and non-EU) and also explore differences between greenfield FDI and M&A FDI. Rules of Thumb for prioritising FTAs: DIT has informally expressed interest in having such guidance. Obviously political dimensions are important but simple rules of thumb (or a checklist) of economic factors, which could be used by non-specialists, would be a useful supplement. Some UKTPO Fellows created one such set of rules in 2004. Experience since the Brexit referendum has suggested that the current rules need to be updated to reflect recent developments in theory, data and patterns of world trade. The aim is to create an operational bridge between simple clear concepts and identifiable data. As well as obvious issues such as proximity, size, existing levels of trade and protection and the similarity of income levels, social norms and regulatory regimes - all of which require quite subtle handling to relate rules of thumb to economic welfare - we will specifically add services, FDI and value-chains to the mix.The output would be a short analytical manual accompanied by guidance on available data. To the maximum extent possible the measures recommended will be operationalised in the TradeSift software, which has been developed by some UKTPO Fellows. The intended users are government officials with time and budget pressures, think tank analysts and academics teaching non-modelling courses.