Contemporary Long-Term Homicide Trends in England and Wales in the Period 1977-2019 and a Comparison with Non-Lethal Violence Trends

1977-2019 年英格兰和威尔士当代长期凶杀趋势以及与非致命暴力趋势的比较

• 批准号: ES/X000575/1
• 负责人: Emily Gray
• 金额: $ 21.85万
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FX000575%2F1
• 关键词: Contemporary; Long; Term; Homicide; Trends

Homicide is undoubtedly the most serious form of violence, resulting in substantial and widespread social, financial, and economic harm. Not only does it result in the physical loss of life, but also in problems for surviving families and friends, the neighbourhoods and communities where the crime was committed, and broader society. The most serious form of violence, homicide, declined in England and Wales between the early 2000s and 2014, after which the homicide rate rose again. Much work remains to be done to the drivers of homicide trends; a significant challenge to societies globally, but especially so in England and Wales where research remains in its infancy. This project aims to examine and to better understand the patterns in rising and falling homicide rates in England and Wales over a period of four decades (1977-2019). We will do this by directing special attention to the following individual and aggregate level characteristics, including:(i) the demographic characteristics of victims/offenders involved in homicides (e.g. age, sex, and social background);(ii) the circumstantial characteristics of homicide incidents (e.g. location, weapon use, alcohol use);(iii) the (aggregate-level) characteristics relating to lifestyle patterns/routine activities;(iv) the wider socio-economic conditions, cultural values; and(v) the role played by public perceptions and social attitudes in responding to homicide trends.In particular, we will (a) disaggregate and compare distinct homicide subtypes to scrutinize and better understand changes in homicide trends, using more comprehensive typologies based on offender-victim relationships and the motives/circumstances of the homicide; and (b) compare lethal violence trends with trends in non-lethal violence by dissecting violence subtypes to allow for a more accurate examination of changes in violent crimes, and to assess similarities and differences in patterns of lethal and non-lethal violence in England and Wales.Investigating the role these factors play in facilitating trends in homicide over time is critical for advancing our theoretical and empirical knowledge in this area, enabling guided policy efforts to further help reduce homicide and to potentially help mitigate further spikes.To achieve the project's aims, we will draw on highly reliable, robust, large-scale datasets, including the Homicide Index (HI, 1977-2019), the British Crime Survey/Crime Survey for England and Wales (BCS/CSEW, 1981-2019), and the British Social Attitudes Survey (BSA, 1983-2019). Data from the HI will allow for an extensive exploration of long-term patterns in homicide trends and will enable further refinement of disaggregating different subtypes of homicides; the two other sources will allow us to relate variables on lifestyle/routine activities at aggregate level, public perception/attitudes, and socioeconomic factors in a representative population sample. To analyse the data, multivariate trend analysis will be used to identify significant influencing factors driving changes in homicide trends. Lastly, one report will be produced, and four articles will be published in peer-reviewed international journals.The project will be conducted by an interdisciplinary team of experienced researchers with (a) a background in criminology, sociology, social policy and economics, (b) an interest in homicide, violence and crime in general; and in processes of change, both at the individual level, and the societal level; (c) expertise in quantitative research methods, with particular experience in social statistics, and working with large-scale and sensitive datasets; and (d) a track record of undertaking a multitude of successful ESRC-projects using secondary data analyses to inform theory, practice, and policy. This will ensure that the project is performed successfully and efficiently with the highest quality standard.

凶杀无疑是最严重的暴力形式，造成大量和广泛的社会、财政和经济损害。它不仅会造成身体上的生命损失，还会给幸存的家人和朋友、犯罪发生的街区和社区以及更广泛的社会带来问题。从21世纪初到2014年，英格兰和威尔士最严重的暴力形式——杀人案件有所下降，但此后杀人案件的发生率再次上升。对杀人趋势的驱动因素仍有许多工作要做；这是全球社会面临的重大挑战，尤其是在研究仍处于起步阶段的英格兰和威尔士。该项目旨在研究并更好地理解英格兰和威尔士在四十年（1977-2019）期间杀人率上升和下降的模式。为此，我们将特别关注以下个人和总体层面的特征，包括：(i)涉及杀人案的受害者/罪犯的人口统计学特征（例如年龄、性别和社会背景）；（二）杀人事件的间接特征（例如地点、武器使用、酒精使用）；（iii）与生活方式/日常活动有关的（整体层面）特征；更广泛的社会经济条件、文化价值；公众观念和社会态度在应对杀人趋势方面所起的作用。特别是，我们将(a)分解和比较不同的杀人亚型，以仔细研究和更好地理解杀人趋势的变化，使用基于罪犯-受害者关系和杀人动机/环境的更全面的类型；(b)通过剖析暴力亚型，将致命暴力趋势与非致命暴力趋势进行比较，以便更准确地检查暴力犯罪的变化，并评估英格兰和威尔士致命暴力和非致命暴力模式的异同。随着时间的推移，调查这些因素在促进杀人趋势中所起的作用，对于提高我们在这一领域的理论和经验知识至关重要，有助于指导政策努力进一步帮助减少杀人，并有可能帮助缓解进一步的高峰。为了实现该项目的目标，我们将利用高度可靠、强大的大规模数据集，包括凶杀指数（HI, 1977-2019）、英国犯罪调查/英格兰和威尔士犯罪调查（BCS/CSEW, 1981-2019）和英国社会态度调查（BSA, 1983-2019）。来自人口调查的数据将有助于广泛探索杀人趋势的长期模式，并将有助于进一步完善对杀人的不同亚型的分类；另外两个来源将使我们能够在总体水平上将生活方式/日常活动、公众看法/态度和代表性人口样本中的社会经济因素等变量联系起来。为了分析数据，将使用多变量趋势分析来确定驱动杀人趋势变化的重要影响因素。最后，将编写一份报告，并在同行评议的国际期刊上发表四篇文章。该项目将由经验丰富的跨学科研究人员组成，他们(a)具有犯罪学、社会学、社会政策和经济学背景，(b)对杀人、暴力和一般犯罪有兴趣；在变化的过程中，无论是在个人层面，还是在社会层面；(c)在定量研究方法方面的专门知识，特别是在社会统计方面的经验，并处理大规模和敏感的数据集；(d)利用二手数据分析为理论、实践和政策提供信息，承担了大量成功的esrc项目的记录。这将确保项目以最高质量标准成功高效地执行。