Contemporary Long-Term Homicide Trends in England and Wales in the Period 1977-2019 and a Comparison with Non-Lethal Violence Trends

杀人无疑是最严重的暴力形式，造成巨大和广泛的社会、财政和经济损害。它不仅造成生命损失，而且给幸存的家人和朋友、犯罪发生地的邻里和社区以及更广泛的社会带来问题。最严重的暴力形式，杀人，在21世纪初至2014年期间在英格兰和威尔士下降，之后杀人率再次上升。对杀人趋势的驱动因素仍有许多工作要做;这是对全球社会的重大挑战，但在研究仍处于起步阶段的英格兰和威尔士尤其如此。该项目旨在研究并更好地了解四十年（1977-2019）期间英格兰和威尔士凶杀率上升和下降的模式。为此，我们会特别关注以下个别及整体层面的特徴，包括：（i）凶杀案受害人/罪犯的人口特徴（例如年龄、性别及社会背景）;（ii）凶杀案的环境特征（例如地点、武器使用、酒精使用）;（iii）与生活方式/日常活动有关的（总体）特征;（四）更广泛的社会经济条件、文化价值;及（v）公众认知及社会态度在回应凶杀趋势方面所扮演的角色。特别是，我们会（a）根据犯案者与受害人的关系及凶杀案的动机/情况，采用更全面的类型学，将不同的凶杀案亚型分类及比较，以审视及更深入了解凶杀趋势的转变;以及（B）通过剖析暴力子类型来比较致命暴力趋势与非致命暴力趋势，以允许更准确地检查暴力犯罪的变化，并评估致命性和非致命性模式的相似性和差异，英格兰和威尔士的致命暴力。调查这些因素在促进杀人趋势方面所起的作用，对于推进我们在这一领域的理论和经验知识至关重要，为实现该项目的目标，我们将利用高度可靠、强大的大规模数据集，包括凶杀指数，（HI，1977-2019），英国犯罪调查/英格兰和威尔士犯罪调查（BCS/CSEW，1981-2019）和英国社会态度调查（BSA，1983-2019）。来自HI的数据将允许对杀人趋势的长期模式进行广泛探索，并将进一步细化对不同亚型的杀人行为的分类;另外两个来源将使我们能够在总体水平上将生活方式/日常活动变量，公众感知/态度以及代表性人口样本中的社会经济因素联系起来。为了分析数据，将使用多变量趋势分析来确定推动杀人趋势变化的重要影响因素。最后，将编写一份报告，并在同行评审的国际期刊上发表四篇文章，该项目将由一个由经验丰富的研究人员组成的跨学科小组进行，他们具有（a）犯罪学、社会学、社会政策和经济学背景，（B）对一般凶杀、暴力和犯罪以及个人和社会两级的变化过程感兴趣;（c）在定量研究方法方面的专业知识，特别是在社会统计方面的经验，以及与大规模和敏感数据集的合作;以及（d）利用二级数据分析进行大量成功的ESRC项目的跟踪记录，为理论，实践和政策提供信息。这将确保该项目以最高质量标准成功和有效地执行。

Homicide is undoubtedly the most serious form of violence, resulting in substantial and widespread social, financial, and economic harm. Not only does it result in the physical loss of life, but also in problems for surviving families and friends, the neighbourhoods and communities where the crime was committed, and broader society. The most serious form of violence, homicide, declined in England and Wales between the early 2000s and 2014, after which the homicide rate rose again. Much work remains to be done to the drivers of homicide trends; a significant challenge to societies globally, but especially so in England and Wales where research remains in its infancy. This project aims to examine and to better understand the patterns in rising and falling homicide rates in England and Wales over a period of four decades (1977-2019). We will do this by directing special attention to the following individual and aggregate level characteristics, including:(i) the demographic characteristics of victims/offenders involved in homicides (e.g. age, sex, and social background);(ii) the circumstantial characteristics of homicide incidents (e.g. location, weapon use, alcohol use);(iii) the (aggregate-level) characteristics relating to lifestyle patterns/routine activities;(iv) the wider socio-economic conditions, cultural values; and(v) the role played by public perceptions and social attitudes in responding to homicide trends.In particular, we will (a) disaggregate and compare distinct homicide subtypes to scrutinize and better understand changes in homicide trends, using more comprehensive typologies based on offender-victim relationships and the motives/circumstances of the homicide; and (b) compare lethal violence trends with trends in non-lethal violence by dissecting violence subtypes to allow for a more accurate examination of changes in violent crimes, and to assess similarities and differences in patterns of lethal and non-lethal violence in England and Wales.Investigating the role these factors play in facilitating trends in homicide over time is critical for advancing our theoretical and empirical knowledge in this area, enabling guided policy efforts to further help reduce homicide and to potentially help mitigate further spikes.To achieve the project's aims, we will draw on highly reliable, robust, large-scale datasets, including the Homicide Index (HI, 1977-2019), the British Crime Survey/Crime Survey for England and Wales (BCS/CSEW, 1981-2019), and the British Social Attitudes Survey (BSA, 1983-2019). Data from the HI will allow for an extensive exploration of long-term patterns in homicide trends and will enable further refinement of disaggregating different subtypes of homicides; the two other sources will allow us to relate variables on lifestyle/routine activities at aggregate level, public perception/attitudes, and socioeconomic factors in a representative population sample. To analyse the data, multivariate trend analysis will be used to identify significant influencing factors driving changes in homicide trends. Lastly, one report will be produced, and four articles will be published in peer-reviewed international journals.The project will be conducted by an interdisciplinary team of experienced researchers with (a) a background in criminology, sociology, social policy and economics, (b) an interest in homicide, violence and crime in general; and in processes of change, both at the individual level, and the societal level; (c) expertise in quantitative research methods, with particular experience in social statistics, and working with large-scale and sensitive datasets; and (d) a track record of undertaking a multitude of successful ESRC-projects using secondary data analyses to inform theory, practice, and policy. This will ensure that the project is performed successfully and efficiently with the highest quality standard.