Combining epidemiological and phylogenetic models of infectious disease dynamics

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Viruses such as influenza A and HIV-1 mutate extremely rapidly, such that the viruses in one individual are genetically different from those in another individual. While this presents significant hurdles to develop effective vaccines, the genetic variation can be used to determine the extent to which viruses in different individuals are related, and to generate a `family tree', or phylogeny, of viruses. Viral phylogenies contain a great deal of information about the past spread of the virus, but this information is difficult to extract, as many factors can affect viral transmission, such as the probability of infection per contact, and the duration of infection.This project will combine epidemiological models of infectious diseases, which are commonly used tools to consider how incidence and prevalence changes over time, with models of viral evolution. We will endeavour to make our models as biologically realistic as possible, allowing us to consider the different pathways via which viruses may spread over a geographic area, as well as helping us to understand how the transmission of viruses may be affected by genetic changes in the virus.