ALCOHOL ADVERTISING AND YOUTH--AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

本提案中概述的实证工作包括三个项目，这些项目将检查酒精广告对青少年酒精消费的影响。这项研究的重要性体现在酒类广告的水平上，每年约10亿美元，以及青少年的酒精参与水平，高中生的比例约为50%。这个项目将估计酒精广告对若干年龄组青年使用、流行和酗酒的影响。数据集也足够大，可以估计种族和性别的具体影响。这些数据集将在地方一级增加酒类广告数据和酒类价格数据，并在州一级增加法律变量。广告数据包括电视、广播、户外和杂志。这些数据将来自竞争媒体报告，这是广告数据的行业标准。第一个使用的数据集将来自新的1997年全国青年纵向调查（NLSY97）。NLSY97将包括10,000名12至16岁的学生。这个数据集的一个优点是它包含了青少年酒精消费的最新数据。该数据集的另一个优点是还可以获得包括家庭收入在内的父母数据。第二组数据将来自1992年和1994年对8年级、10年级和12年级学生进行的监测未来基线调查。这个数据集的一个优点是，它包含了超过10万个对13到18岁的人的观察。第三组数据将来自1992年和1994年中期基金后续调查。该数据集将包括对大约10800名年龄在19岁至31岁之间的人的两次观察。该数据集的一个优点是允许对数据进行差分，从而消除了单个特定的时不变未观察到的特征。这些数据集的横断面性质将解决先前酒精广告时间序列研究的不足。这些数据还可以用来估计酒类广告的需求。这一点很重要，因为酒精广告的估计价格弹性可以用来估计取消酒精广告的税收减免的影响。

The empirical work outlined in this proposal consists of three projects that will examine the effects of alcohol advertising on youth alcohol consumption. The significance of this research is highlighted by the level of alcohol advertising, which is about 1 billion dollars a year and by the level of alcohol participation by adolescents, which is about 50 percent for high school seniors. This project will estimate the effect of alcohol advertising on use, prevalence and binge drinking by youth for several age groups. The data sets are also large enough to estimate race and gender specific effects. The data sets will be augmented with alcohol advertising data and alcohol price data at the local level and with legal variables at the state level. The advertising data include spot television, radio, outdoor and magazines. These data will come from Competitive Media Reporting, which is the industry standard for advertising data. The first data set to be used will be derived from the new 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97). The NLSY97 will include 10,000 12 to 16 year olds. One advantage of this data set is that it contains current data on youth alcohol consumption. Another advantage of this data set is that parental data including family income is also available. The second data set will be derived from a pool of the 1992 and 1994 Monitoring the Future (MTF) baseline surveys of 8th, 10th and 12th graders. One advantage of this data set is that it contains over 100,000 observations on individuals aged 13 to 18. The third data set will be derived from the 1992 and 1994 MTF follow-up surveys. This data set will include two observations on about 10,800 individuals aged 19 to 31. One advantage of this data set is that it allows for differencing the data, which eliminates individual specific time invariant unobserved characteristics. The cross sectional nature of these data sets will address the deficiencies in prior time series studies of alcohol advertising. These data will also allow for the estimation of a demand for alcohol advertising. This is important since the estimated price elasticity of alcohol advertising can be used to estimate the effect of elimination of the tax deductibility of alcohol advertising.