Alcohol Taxes, Alcohol Prices and Alcohol Sales: Quasi-Natural Experiments

酒精税、酒精价格和酒精销售：准自然实验

• 批准号: 9763399
• 负责人: Henry Saffer
• 金额: $ 23.02万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-08-15 至 2021-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9763399
• 关键词: Affect; Alcohol consumption; Alcoholic Beverages; Alcoholic beverage heavy drinker; Alcohols; Beer; Behavioral; Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; Beverages; Characteristics; Choices and Control; Consumption; Control Groups; Data; Data Set; Effectiveness; Ethanol; Event; Future; Goals; Heavy Drinking; Household; Illinois; Incentives; Income; Individual; Low income; Methods; Modeling; Natural experiment; Placebos; Policies; Price; Process; Research; Risk Factors; Sales; Series; Side; Stratification; Surveys; Taxes; Time; Transact; Travel; Washington; Wine; alcohol measurement; avoidance behavior; base; cost; demographics; discount; experimental study; interest

Project Summary Alcohol tax increases are known to increase prices and reduce alcohol consumption. However, little is known about the specifics of this process. This project will investigate the details of how an excise tax increase affects the alcohol market. The overarching goal of this research is to determine if heavy drinkers use substitution options to avoid the effects of a tax increase to a greater degree than moderate and low- income drinkers. The market changes on the supply side because not all products are required to increase prices by the same amount or proportion. On the demand side, buyers may engage in a series of avoidance strategies. These include buying lower quality and thus cheaper products, buying from different discount retailers, and buying larger bottle sizes. Buying less total alcohol is another option. Heavy drinkers have an incentive to incur greater search and travel cost than moderate drinkers because these costs are independent of the amount purchased, while benefits are positively related to consumption. Two large exogenous state tax changes will be studied. These changes were in Illinois and in Washington State. These changes are considered quasi-natural experiments because they rely on assignment to treatment using a criterion other than random assignment. The analytic approach will be a series of difference-in-differences models. The Nielsen Homescan data will be used to investigate the characteristics of buyers of low priced alcohol. It is of particular interest to investigate how much low priced alcohol is bought by heavy drinkers relative to low- income moderate drinkers. The Nielsen Retail Scanner data set provides detailed store prices. The retail price data will be used to study the change in prices due to the tax increase at different points in the price distribution. This is important to verify that relative prices change when excise taxes increase. Detailed data on purchases by store type, bottle size and brand are also available in the Nielsen Homescan data set. The Homescan data will be used to investigate substitutions to avoid the price increase that occurs after the tax increase by heavy versus moderate drinkers and by low-income drinkers relative to higher-income drinkers. The Homescan and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data will also be used to investigate changes in consumption by heavy drinkers relative to moderate drinkers as a result of the excise tax increases. This set of goals will create a detailed view of who buys low priced alcohol, the impact of the tax on relative alcohol prices and the price increase avoidance behavior of heavy drinkers when excise taxes increase. If this project shows that heavy drinkers rely on substitutions to minimize the impact of an excise tax increase, it would suggest that price increases at the low end of the distribution are more important than increases in the average price. This type of tax avoidance could be limited with minimum pricing policies. Alternatively, if this project finds that the impact of excise tax increases is not avoided by heavy drinkers then this information would be useful in future discussions of excise tax increases.

项目摘要 众所周知，酒精税增加可提高价格并减少酒精消耗。但是，很少 了解此过程的细节。该项目将调查如何消费税的细节 增加会影响酒精市场。这项研究的总体目标是确定饮酒者是否是 使用替代方案避免税收增加的影响，而不是中度和低 - 收入饮酒者。供应方面的市场发生变化，因为并非所有产品都需要增加 价格以相同的金额或比例为单位。在需求方面，买家可以进行一系列回避 策略。其中包括购买质量较低的产品，从而便宜的产品，从不同的折扣购买 零售商，购买更大的瓶子尺寸。购买较少的总酒精是另一种选择。饮酒者有一个 比中度饮酒者相比，激励搜索和旅行成本更高，因为这些成本是独立的 购买的金额，而收益与消费呈正相关。两个大型外源税 将研究更改。这些变化在伊利诺伊州和华盛顿州。这些变化是 考虑了准自然实验，因为它们依靠分配使用其他标准进行治疗 比随机分配。分析方法将是一系列差异差异模型。这 Nielsen Homescan数据将用于调查价格低估酒精的买家的特征。它是 特别兴趣调查重量饮酒者相对于低饮酒者购买多少低价酒精 收入中度饮酒者。 Nielsen零售扫描仪数据集提供了详细的商店价格。零售 价格数据将用于研究由于价格不同点的税收增加而导致的价格变化 分配。这很重要的是，验证消费税增加时相对价格会改变。详细数据 在按商店类型购买的情况下，尼尔森家庭扫描数据集也可以使用瓶子尺寸和品牌。这 Homescan数据将用于调查替代，以避免税后发生的价格上涨 相对于高收入饮酒者而言，重量与中度饮酒者以及低收入饮酒者的增加。 家庭和行为风险因素监视系统数据也将用于调查变化 由于消费税的增加，相对于中度饮酒者的饮用者的消费量增加了。这 一组目标将为谁购买低价酒精，税收对相对酒精的影响而创造详细的看法 当消费税增加时，价格和价格增加了重饮者的回避行为。如果这个项目 表明，饮酒者依靠替代者来最大程度地减少消费税增加的影响，它将 表明在分销低端价格上涨比平均上涨更重要 价格。这种类型的避税可能会受到最低定价政策的限制。或者，如果这个项目 发现不避免饮酒者避免消费税增加的影响，那么这些信息将是 在将来讨论消费税增加的讨论中。