The role of climate, biotic interactions and dispersal limitations in determining the distribution of species amid global warming

气候、生物相互作用和扩散限制在决定全球变暖中物种分布方面的作用

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-06081
• 负责人: Lessard, JeanPhilippe
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: Concordia University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=631796
• 关键词: role; climate; biotic; interactions; dispersal

With rapid climate change, we expect species to shift their geographic distribution. Possible future scenarios include geographic range expansion, range contractions as well as local extirpation and species-wide extinctions. Which of these scenarios is more likely will vary among species, and we lack species-specific biological knowledge enabling predictions of future distributions. While climate determines the geographical extent over which species are distributed (a.k.a. range), biotic interactions and dispersal limitations can determine which proportion of the potential range is occupied. Current models of species distributions rely heavily on environmental affinities, but often do not account for factors such as biotic interactions and dispersal limitations. As such, these models often fail to predict accurately species distributions.

随着气候的快速变化，我们预计物种将改变其地理分布。未来可能的情景包括地理分布范围的扩大、分布范围的缩小以及局部灭绝和物种范围的灭绝。哪种情况更有可能在不同物种之间发生变化，我们缺乏特定物种的生物学知识，无法预测未来的分布。虽然气候决定了物种分布的地理范围（也就是说，生物相互作用和扩散限制可以决定潜在分布区的哪一部分被占据。目前的物种分布模型在很大程度上依赖于环境亲和力，但往往没有考虑到生物相互作用和扩散限制等因素。因此，这些模型往往无法准确预测物种分布。