The role of climate, biotic interactions and dispersal limitations in determining the distribution of species amid global warming

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With rapid climate change, we expect species to shift their geographic distribution. Possible future scenarios include geographic range expansion, range contractions as well as local extirpation and species-wide extinctions. Which of these scenarios is more likely will vary among species, and we lack species-specific biological knowledge enabling predictions of future distributions. While climate determines the geographical extent over which species are distributed (a.k.a. range), biotic interactions and dispersal limitations can determine which proportion of the potential range is occupied. Current models of species distributions rely heavily on environmental affinities, but often do not account for factors such as biotic interactions and dispersal limitations. As such, these models often fail to predict accurately species distributions.******Previously, I used data on the global distributions and phylogenetic relationships of thousands of species to develop a new map of the world's biogeographic regions. This work lead me to questions regarding the processes that set species' range limits, knowledge of which is critical for developing predictions of future species distributions in a changing world. My long-term research goal is to track and predict changes in species distributions along broad-scale climatic gradients. There is pressing need for process-based models to forecast future distributions under climate change. To develop such models, we must first gain an understanding of several key processes affecting site-specific colonization and extinction, including species-specific environmental affinities, ability to coexist with other species, and dispersal abilities. As such, my short-term research goals are to test 1) alternative hypothesis on the mechanisms underlying climate-abundance relationships across the entire range of species, 2) the role of biotic interactions and 3) dispersal limitations in determining species distributions.***I have established myself as a community ecologist integrating tools and concepts from biogeography and phylogenetics to quantify the role of historical processes on current patterns of biological diversity. Here, I propose to extend this empirical approach to gain new insights in the processes underpinning species distributions. The proposed project will yield ecological knowledge enabling the parameterization of process-based species distribution models. Such models are useful tools for the strategic planning of conservation efforts and management of natural resources in a changing world. Moreover, our research will provide the foundations for the long-term monitoring of genes, populations and communities along a latitudinal transect spanning several bioclimatic regions. Data derived from our research will enable assessment of climate change impacts on biological diversity in real-time.**