The role of climate, biotic interactions and dispersal limitations in determining the distribution of species amid global warming

随着快速的气候变化，我们预计物种将改变其地理分布。未来可能的情景包括地理分布范围的扩大、分布范围的缩小以及局部灭绝和物种范围的灭绝。哪种情况更有可能在不同物种之间发生变化，我们缺乏特定物种的生物学知识，无法预测未来的分布。虽然气候决定了物种分布的地理范围（也就是说，生物相互作用和扩散限制可以决定潜在分布区的哪一部分被占据。目前的物种分布模型在很大程度上依赖于环境亲和力，但往往没有考虑到生物相互作用和扩散限制等因素。因此，这些模型往往无法准确预测物种分布。在此之前，我使用了数千种物种的全球分布和系统发育关系的数据来绘制一幅新的世界地理区域地图。这项工作使我对设定物种范围限制的过程提出了问题，这些知识对于在不断变化的世界中预测未来物种分布至关重要。我的长期研究目标是跟踪和预测物种分布沿着大尺度气候梯度的变化。迫切需要基于过程的模型来预测气候变化下的未来分布。要开发这样的模型，我们必须首先了解影响特定地点的殖民和灭绝的几个关键过程，包括物种特定的环境亲和力，与其他物种共存的能力和扩散能力。因此，我的短期研究目标是测试1）关于整个物种范围内气候-丰度关系的机制的替代假设，2）生物相互作用的作用和3）确定物种分布的扩散限制。我已经确立了自己作为一个社区生态学家整合工具和概念，从地理学和生物遗传学，以量化的历史进程对生物多样性的当前模式的作用。在这里，我建议扩展这种经验方法，以获得新的见解的过程中支撑物种分布。拟议的项目将产生生态知识，使基于过程的物种分布模型参数化。这种模式是在不断变化的世界中对自然资源的养护工作和管理进行战略规划的有用工具。此外，我们的研究将提供长期监测基因，人口和社区的基础沿着一个纬度样带跨越几个生物气候区域。从我们的研究中获得的数据将能够实时评估气候变化对生物多样性的影响。

With rapid climate change, we expect species to shift their geographic distribution. Possible future scenarios include geographic range expansion, range contractions as well as local extirpation and species-wide extinctions. Which of these scenarios is more likely will vary among species, and we lack species-specific biological knowledge enabling predictions of future distributions. While climate determines the geographical extent over which species are distributed (a.k.a. range), biotic interactions and dispersal limitations can determine which proportion of the potential range is occupied. Current models of species distributions rely heavily on environmental affinities, but often do not account for factors such as biotic interactions and dispersal limitations. As such, these models often fail to predict accurately species distributions.******Previously, I used data on the global distributions and phylogenetic relationships of thousands of species to develop a new map of the world's biogeographic regions. This work lead me to questions regarding the processes that set species' range limits, knowledge of which is critical for developing predictions of future species distributions in a changing world. My long-term research goal is to track and predict changes in species distributions along broad-scale climatic gradients. There is pressing need for process-based models to forecast future distributions under climate change. To develop such models, we must first gain an understanding of several key processes affecting site-specific colonization and extinction, including species-specific environmental affinities, ability to coexist with other species, and dispersal abilities. As such, my short-term research goals are to test 1) alternative hypothesis on the mechanisms underlying climate-abundance relationships across the entire range of species, 2) the role of biotic interactions and 3) dispersal limitations in determining species distributions.***I have established myself as a community ecologist integrating tools and concepts from biogeography and phylogenetics to quantify the role of historical processes on current patterns of biological diversity. Here, I propose to extend this empirical approach to gain new insights in the processes underpinning species distributions. The proposed project will yield ecological knowledge enabling the parameterization of process-based species distribution models. Such models are useful tools for the strategic planning of conservation efforts and management of natural resources in a changing world. Moreover, our research will provide the foundations for the long-term monitoring of genes, populations and communities along a latitudinal transect spanning several bioclimatic regions. Data derived from our research will enable assessment of climate change impacts on biological diversity in real-time.**