The role of climate, biotic interactions and dispersal limitations in determining the distribution of species amid global warming

随着气候的快速变化，我们预计物种将改变它们的地理分布。未来可能出现的情况包括地理范围的扩大、范围的收缩以及局部灭绝和物种范围的灭绝。这些情景中哪一种更有可能因物种而异，我们缺乏特定物种的生物学知识来预测未来的分布。而气候决定了物种分布的地理范围(也就是范围)、生物相互作用和扩散限制可以确定占据潜在范围的比例。目前的物种分布模型在很大程度上依赖于环境亲和力，但往往没有考虑到生物相互作用和扩散限制等因素。因此，这些模型往往无法准确预测物种的分布。*之前，我使用了数千个物种的全球分布和系统发育关系的数据来绘制世界生物地理区域的新地图。这项工作使我对设定物种范围限制的过程产生了疑问，了解这些限制对于在不断变化的世界中发展对未来物种分布的预测至关重要。我的长期研究目标是跟踪和预测物种沿大范围气候梯度分布的变化。迫切需要基于过程的模型来预测气候变化下的未来分布。为了开发这样的模型，我们必须首先了解影响特定地点殖民和灭绝的几个关键过程，包括特定物种的环境亲和力、与其他物种共存的能力和扩散能力。因此，我的短期研究目标是测试1)在整个物种范围内气候-丰度关系背后的机制的替代假说，2)生物相互作用的作用和3)决定物种分布的扩散限制。*我已经确立了自己作为社区生态学家的地位，整合了生物地理学和系统发育学的工具和概念，以量化历史过程对当前生物多样性模式的作用。在这里，我建议扩展这一经验方法，以获得对支撑物种分布的过程的新见解。拟议的项目将产生生态学知识，使基于过程的物种分布模型能够参数化。这些模型是在不断变化的世界中对保护工作和自然资源管理进行战略规划的有用工具。此外，我们的研究将为横跨几个生物气候区域的纬向样带上的基因、种群和群落的长期监测提供基础。来自我们研究的数据将能够实时评估气候变化对生物多样性的影响。**

With rapid climate change, we expect species to shift their geographic distribution. Possible future scenarios include geographic range expansion, range contractions as well as local extirpation and species-wide extinctions. Which of these scenarios is more likely will vary among species, and we lack species-specific biological knowledge enabling predictions of future distributions. While climate determines the geographical extent over which species are distributed (a.k.a. range), biotic interactions and dispersal limitations can determine which proportion of the potential range is occupied. Current models of species distributions rely heavily on environmental affinities, but often do not account for factors such as biotic interactions and dispersal limitations. As such, these models often fail to predict accurately species distributions.******Previously, I used data on the global distributions and phylogenetic relationships of thousands of species to develop a new map of the world's biogeographic regions. This work lead me to questions regarding the processes that set species' range limits, knowledge of which is critical for developing predictions of future species distributions in a changing world. My long-term research goal is to track and predict changes in species distributions along broad-scale climatic gradients. There is pressing need for process-based models to forecast future distributions under climate change. To develop such models, we must first gain an understanding of several key processes affecting site-specific colonization and extinction, including species-specific environmental affinities, ability to coexist with other species, and dispersal abilities. As such, my short-term research goals are to test 1) alternative hypothesis on the mechanisms underlying climate-abundance relationships across the entire range of species, 2) the role of biotic interactions and 3) dispersal limitations in determining species distributions.***I have established myself as a community ecologist integrating tools and concepts from biogeography and phylogenetics to quantify the role of historical processes on current patterns of biological diversity. Here, I propose to extend this empirical approach to gain new insights in the processes underpinning species distributions. The proposed project will yield ecological knowledge enabling the parameterization of process-based species distribution models. Such models are useful tools for the strategic planning of conservation efforts and management of natural resources in a changing world. Moreover, our research will provide the foundations for the long-term monitoring of genes, populations and communities along a latitudinal transect spanning several bioclimatic regions. Data derived from our research will enable assessment of climate change impacts on biological diversity in real-time.**