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Synchrony in metapopulations at multiple time scales: theory, experiments, and field data

多个时间尺度的复合种群的同步性：理论、实验和现场数据

基本信息

批准号：
NE/I011889/1
负责人：
Samraat Pawar
金额：
$ 51.1万
依托单位：
Imperial College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2011 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI011889%2F1
关键词：
Synchrony metapopulations multiple time scales

项目摘要

Research context: Populations of the same species in locations hundreds of kilometers apart often fluctuate in unison or partly in unison, a phenomenon called synchrony. For instance, British aphid species, of economic importance because they are a major agricultural pest, outbreak 80% in synchrony over short distances and 50% in synchrony over distances of 200km, a huge distance for most aphid species. In fact, synchrony is widespread, and has been detected in birds, lemmings, fish such as cod, human pathogens such as measles, amphibians, and numerous other species. Many species exhibiting synchrony are of major conservation, economic, or health importance. Population synchrony has practical importance for several reasons. For instance, synchronized pest or disease populations require a coordinated response. An endangered species whose populations are synchronized is in accentuated danger of final extinction because populations are simultaneously low and might all go extinct by chance at once. An exploited synchronized species is periodically unavailable or less available across a wide area in many markets. Synchrony has been measured with methods that characterize the degree of synchrony between two populations only by a single number from 1 (perfect synchrony) down to -1 (perfect asynchrony). This approach is useful but limited: our results show synchrony is too complex to be captured with one number. Synchrony between two populations can occur mainly on short time scales, with little to no synchrony on long time scales; or on long time scales, with little or no synchrony on short time scales; or on any range of time scales. Synchrony between environmental variables in different locations has the same complexity. For instance, temperatures in London and Glasgow rise and fall largely together on annual time scales (seasonal variation) and multi-annual time scales (the North Atlantic Oscillation), but short-time-scale (day-to-day) temperature variation in London may resemble that in Glasgow much less. Different time scales of synchrony have different ecological and extinction-risk implications, and may have different implications for optimal control strategies for pests. In addition, new and important preliminary results show that the time-scale-specific structure of environmental synchrony is changing as part of climate change, and likely affects population synchrony, and thereby extinction risk. Research aims: We will use large spatio-temporal databases, new theory, and new lab experiments to obtain a broad time-scale-specific description of environmental and population synchrony, and to assess the implications of observed patterns for climate change, extinction risks, and inference of what mechanisms cause synchrony in the field. Applications: We will provide information about a newly observed and previously unrecognized aspect of climate change and a global assessment of its overarching importance for conservation and pest management applications and for ecological understanding.

研究背景：相隔数百公里的同一物种的种群经常一致或部分一致地波动，这种现象称为同步性。例如，英国蚜虫物种，具有经济重要性，因为它们是一种主要的农业害虫，在短距离内同步爆发80%，在200公里的距离内同步爆发50%，这对大多数蚜虫物种来说是一个很大的距离。事实上，同步现象是普遍存在的，在鸟类、旅鼠、鳕鱼等鱼类、麻疹等人类病原体、两栖动物和许多其他物种中都发现了这种现象。许多表现出同步性的物种具有重要的保护、经济或健康意义。种群同步具有实际重要性，原因有几个。例如，同步的害虫或疾病种群需要协调的反应。一个濒危物种，其种群数量是同步的，最终灭绝的危险是突出的，因为种群数量同时很低，可能会突然灭绝。在许多市场上，一个被开发的同步物种在广泛的区域内周期性地不可用或不太可用。同步性的测量方法是用一个从1（完全同步）到-1（完全同步）的数字来表征两个种群之间的同步程度。这种方法是有用的，但有局限性：我们的研究结果表明，同步太复杂，无法用一个数字来捕捉。两个种群之间的同步主要发生在短时间尺度上，在长时间尺度上几乎没有同步;或者在长时间尺度上，在短时间尺度上几乎没有同步;或者在任何时间尺度范围内。不同位置的环境变量之间的同步具有相同的复杂性。例如，伦敦和格拉斯哥的气温在年时间尺度上基本上同时上升和下降（季节变化）和多年时间尺度（北大西洋涛动），但时间尺度短伦敦的（逐日）温度变化可能与格拉斯哥的相似性要小得多。不同的同步时间尺度具有不同的生态和预防风险影响，并且可能对害虫的最佳控制策略具有不同的含义。此外，新的和重要的初步结果表明，环境同步性的时间尺度特定结构正在变化，作为气候变化的一部分，并可能影响人口同步性，从而灭绝风险。研究目的：我们将使用大型时空数据库，新理论和新的实验室实验，以获得环境和人口同步的广泛的时间尺度特定的描述，并评估观察到的气候变化，灭绝风险模式的影响，并推断哪些机制导致同步。应用领域：我们将提供有关气候变化的一个新观察到的和以前未被认识的方面的信息，并对其在保护和害虫管理应用以及生态理解方面的总体重要性进行全球评估。