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Climate driven phenotypic change: macroecology meets quantitative genetics

气候驱动的表型变化：宏观生态学与数量遗传学的结合

基本信息

批准号：
NE/I020598/1
负责人：
Albert Phillimore
金额：
$ 67.85万
依托单位：
University of Edinburgh
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Fellowship
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2012 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI020598%2F1
关键词：
Climate driven phenotypic change macroecology

项目摘要

From aardvarks to zooplankton, how will life on earth be affected by climate change? The answer to this question has enormous implications for predicting how the world may look in fifty or a hundred years time. Yet, worryingly, scientists do not know the answer. What we do know is that species have evolved to adapt to climate change in the past and, on this basis, it seems reasonable to predict that evolution by natural selection might play an important role in the current climate crisis. But if climate change is as rapid as anticipated, we might find that even the fittest members of a species may not be fit enough. I will use a fellowship to address three main aims that will help in predicting species' responses to climate change. Most species are made up of many populations inhabiting different geographic areas and varying in phenotype, with phenotype often correlating with temperature or rainfall. We can use the present-day patterns in these correlations to see whether populations will need to evolve to a changed climate of the future. For example, walk through a wood in southern England during April and you might see a blanket of bluebells, but in the colder Scottish Highlands you'd need to wait another month to see this. Temperatures fluctuate from year to year, so that in some years the spring temperature in the Highlands may rise as high as that normally seen in the south. In these years, we can observe whether the Highland bluebells flower as early as is the norm for southern populations; if they do not, we can infer that populations are adapted to the temperatures that they experience in an average year. Such locally adapted populations will be rendered less well adapted if temperatures change. I will use observations of phenology collected by citizen scientists and collated by the Woodland Trust and British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) to gain the first insights into whether local adaptation is responsible for geographic differences in the timing of spring events for a host of plant and bird species. I will then ask whether plasticity or local adaptation can be predicted on the basis of the characteristics of species or environmental conditions. Natural selection operates when the phenotypes of 'fit' individuals differ from those of less fit individuals. To calculate phenotypic survival selection for a wild population, we need to measure a trait for lots of individuals and we need to know which individuals survive and perish. Most studies that measure selection do so at just one location. This is unfortunate because, in order to predict how a species will evolve, we need to know how selection varies among locations and over time. For over half a century bird ringers across Britain have caught birds, measuring the wing length of each one and submitting these data to the BTO. I will use these measurements for the blue tit - the most often caught bird - to estimate how selection on wing length varies in space and time and test whether aspects of climate drives selection. If a population has adapted to its local climate, how will selection act if the climate changes? One possibility is that, across the whole population, survival will decrease, but there are other possibilities and, to distinguish these, I will conduct a plant experiment. I will also look at birds to test whether species with nesting times that are adapted to local conditions are especially prone to population decline. Another consequence of climate change is that species may respond differently, disrupting inter-species interactions. I will compare communities composed of plant, butterfly and bird species, to identify cases where climate change may cause most disruption to interactions among species. The ways in which different species and populations adapt and respond to their environmental conditions fascinates me, and gaining a proper understanding of these processes and their consequences has become urgent.

从土豚到浮游动物，地球上的生命将如何受到气候变化的影响？这个问题的答案对于预测五十年或一百年后世界的面貌具有巨大的影响。然而，令人担忧的是，科学家们并不知道答案。我们所知道的是，物种在过去已经进化以适应气候变化，在此基础上，有理由预测自然选择的进化可能在当前的气候危机中发挥重要作用。但如果气候变化像预期的那样迅速，我们可能会发现，即使是一个物种中最适应的成员也可能不够适应。我将利用奖学金来实现三个主要目标，这将有助于预测物种对气候变化的反应。大多数物种由居住在不同地理区域的许多种群组成，并且表型各不相同，表型通常与温度或降雨量相关。我们可以利用这些相关性中的当前模式来了解人口是否需要进化以适应未来气候的变化。例如，四月份穿过英格兰南部的树林时，您可能会看到一片风铃草，但在寒冷的苏格兰高地，您需要再等一个月才能看到这一点。气温每年都有波动，因此在某些年份，高地的春季气温可能会升高到与南部通常情况一样高。这些年来，我们可以观察高地风信子是否像南方种群那样早开花；如果不这样做，我们可以推断人口已经适应了平均年份所经历的温度。如果温度发生变化，这些适应当地环境的种群将变得不太适应。我将利用公民科学家收集并由林地信托基金和英国鸟类学信托基金 (BTO) 整理的物候观察结果，初步了解当地的适应是否导致了许多植物和鸟类春季活动时间的地理差异。然后我会问是否可以根据物种或环境条件的特征来预测可塑性或局部适应。当“适合”个体的表型与不太适合的个体的表型不同时，自然选择就会发挥作用。为了计算野生种群的表型生存选择，我们需要测量许多个体的特征，并且我们需要知道哪些个体生存和死亡。大多数衡量选择的研究都只在一个地点进行。这是不幸的，因为为了预测一个物种将如何进化，我们需要知道选择如何随地点和时间而变化。半个多世纪以来，英国各地的观鸟员都在捕捉鸟类，测量每只鸟类的翅膀长度，并将这些数据提交给 BTO。我将使用蓝山雀（最常捕获的鸟类）的这些测量值来估计翅膀长度的选择在空间和时间上的变化，并测试气候因素是否会驱动选择。如果一个种群已经适应了当地的气候，那么如果气候发生变化，选择将如何发挥作用？一种可能性是，在整个种群中，生存率将会下降，但还有其他可能性，为了区分这些可能性，我将进行一项植物实验。我还将观察鸟类，以测试筑巢时间适应当地条件的物种是否特别容易出现种群数量下降。气候变化的另一个后果是物种可能会做出不同的反应，从而破坏物种间的相互作用。我将比较由植物、蝴蝶和鸟类组成的群落，以确定气候变化可能对物种间相互作用造成最大破坏的情况。不同物种和种群适应和应对环境条件的方式令我着迷，正确理解这些过程及其后果已变得刻不容缓。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Inferring local processes from macro-scale phenological pattern: a comparison of two methods

从宏观物候模式推断局部过程：两种方法的比较

DOI：
10.1111/1365-2745.12067
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
Journal of Ecology
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Phillimore A
通讯作者：
Phillimore A

Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds

DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z
发表时间：
2018-04-01
期刊：
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Keogan, Katharine;Daunt, Francis;Lewis, Sue
通讯作者：
Lewis, Sue

The correlates of intraspecific variation in nest height and nest building duration in the Eurasian blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus

DOI：
10.1111/jav.02528
发表时间：
2021-02-12
期刊：
JOURNAL OF AVIAN BIOLOGY
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
Der Weduwen, Dagmar;Keogan, Katharine;Shutt, Jack D.
通讯作者：
Shutt, Jack D.

DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12920
发表时间：
2015-09
期刊：
Global change biology
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Roy DB;Oliver TH;Botham MS;Beckmann B;Brereton T;Dennis RL;Harrower C;Phillimore AB;Thomas JA
通讯作者：
Thomas JA

How reliably can we infer diversity-dependent diversification from phylogenies?