Diagnosing Earth's Energy Pathways in the Climate system (DEEP-C)

诊断气候系统中地球的能量路径（DEEP-C）

• 批准号: NE/K004387/1
• 负责人: Elaine McDonagh
• 金额: $ 53.33万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK004387%2F1
• 关键词: Diagnosing; Earth; Energy; Pathways; Climate

A global warming trend since the 1970s has slowed over the most recent 10-15 years despite the continuing build up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels). Our proposed research seeks to understand the reasons for this "hiatus" in global warming and in particular the roles of the ocean and atmosphere in contributing to this hiatus through movement of energy around the climate system. This will help us monitor changes in climate and understand the processes that are important in enabling us to predict climate change more accurately over the coming decades. Warming of the planet is caused by a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth and the outgoing flow of thermal (infra-red) radiative energy constantly emanating from our planet to space: if more energy is arriving than leaving then the climate heats up. To understand why the heating has apparently slowed requires a detailed assessment of the flows of energy arriving from space, how this energy is transported by the atmosphere, taken up by the surface ocean and subducted deep below the sea surface. Previously, scientists had identified a discrepancy between these energy flows, or "missing energy" in the climate. A primary objective to the proposed research program is to resolve the discrepancy between these energy flows and understand the root causes of the hiatus in the warming of the Earth's surface. Our proposed project combines the latest, improved satellite measurements of Earth's radiative energy imbalance (reflected sunlight and emitted thermal radiation) with our best estimates of energy flows in the atmosphere (from reanalysis simulations) and detailed 3-dimensional ocean heating measurements made by thousands of automated floating buoys, to determine the observed flows of energy in the climate system. We will combine these measurements with state-of-the-art depictions of Earth's climate from sophisticated computer simulations to understand the mechanisms by which the build up of energy due to greenhouse gas increases is redistributed into the oceans. It is plausible that increased amounts of reflective aerosols in the atmosphere (due to human activities or naturally through emissions by volcanic eruptions) may have diminished the heating of the planet. However, our preliminary analyses lead us to the hypothesis that in fact more heat has been entering the deep ocean rather than heating the planets surface. Getting to the bottom of this question is vital for understanding current climate variability and future change over the coming 10 years or more. We consider that the research is also important for understanding regional sea level rise (since warmer water occupies a larger volume leading to rising sea level), fluctuations in clouds and whether they magnify or reduce warming tendencies (climate feedbacks) and simulating the ocean circulation and heat uptake, crucial for representing climate change over the coming decades. We consider that this research is only possible by combining the expertise from three institutions (the University of Reading, the National Oceanography Centre Southampton and the Met Office) covering satellite data, reanalyses of the atmosphere and ocean, ocean measurements and numerical computer simulations of the climate system. The current planetary changes are unusual and present a timely opportunity for understanding how our climate system works: to discover the cause of the global warming hiatus and to understand and simulate the mechanisms important in representing climate variability and change over the coming decades.

自1970年代以来的全球变暖趋势在最近10-15年有所减缓，尽管大气中的二氧化碳持续增加（主要是由于化石燃料的燃烧）。我们拟议的研究旨在了解全球变暖中这种“间断”的原因，特别是海洋和大气通过气候系统周围的能量运动在促成这种间断方面的作用。这将有助于我们监测气候变化，并了解对我们更准确地预测未来几十年气候变化至关重要的过程。地球变暖是由地球吸收的阳光量与不断从地球向太空发出的热（红外）辐射能之间的微小但持续的不平衡引起的：如果到达的能量多于离开的能量，那么气候就会变暖。要理解为什么加热明显放缓，需要详细评估来自太空的能量流，这些能量如何被大气传输，被海洋表面吸收并俯冲到海面以下。此前，科学家们已经确定了这些能量流之间的差异，或气候中的“缺失能量”。拟议研究计划的主要目标是解决这些能量流之间的差异，并了解地球表面变暖中断的根本原因。我们提出的项目结合了最新的，改进的地球辐射能量不平衡的卫星测量（反射的阳光和发射的热辐射）与我们对大气中能量流动的最佳估计（来自再分析模拟）以及数千个自动浮动浮标进行的详细的三维海洋加热测量，以确定气候系统中观测到的能量流动。我们将联合收割机将这些测量结果与先进的计算机模拟地球气候观测相结合，以了解温室气体增加所产生的能量重新分配到海洋中的机制。大气中反射性气溶胶数量的增加（由于人类活动或火山爆发的自然排放）可能减少了地球的加热，这是合理的。然而，我们的初步分析使我们假设，事实上更多的热量已经进入深海，而不是加热行星表面。弄清这个问题的本质对于理解当前的气候变化和未来10年或更长时间的未来变化至关重要。我们认为，这项研究对于了解区域海平面上升（因为温暖的水占据了更大的体积，导致海平面上升），云的波动以及它们是否放大或减少变暖趋势（气候反馈）以及模拟海洋环流和热量吸收也很重要，这对代表未来几十年的气候变化至关重要。我们认为，只有结合三个机构（阅读大学、南安普顿国家海洋学中心和气象局）的专门知识，才有可能进行这项研究，这些机构包括卫星数据、大气和海洋的再分析、海洋测量和气候系统的计算机数值模拟。目前的行星变化是不寻常的，为了解我们的气候系统如何运作提供了及时的机会：发现全球变暖中断的原因，并了解和模拟在未来几十年代表气候变异和变化的重要机制。

项目成果

Observational Advances in Estimates of Oceanic Heating

• DOI: 10.1007/s40641-016-0037-7
• 发表时间: 2016-09-01
• 期刊: CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTS
• 影响因子: 9.5
• 作者: Desbruyeres, Damien;McDonagh, Elaine L.;King, Brian A.
• 通讯作者: King, Brian A.

Signature of Ocean Warming at the Mixed Layer Base

• DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086269
• 发表时间: 2020-01-16
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Clement, Louis;McDonagh, Elaine L.;Nurser, George
• 通讯作者: Nurser, George

Ocean Heat Storage in Response to Changing Ocean Circulation Processes

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-1016.1
• 发表时间: 2020-11-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Dias, Fabio Boeira;Fiedler, R.;Savita, A.
• 通讯作者: Savita, A.

Importance of Boundary Processes for Heat Uptake in the Subpolar North Atlantic

• DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016366
• 发表时间: 2020-07
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
• 作者: D. Desbruyères;B. Sinha;E. McDonagh;S. Josey;N. P. Holliday;D. Smeed;A. New;A. Megann;B. Moat-B.-M

Impact of a 30% reduction in Atlantic meridional overturning during 2009-2010

• DOI: 10.5194/os-10-683-2014
• 发表时间: 2014-01-01
• 期刊: OCEAN SCIENCE
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Bryden, H. L.;King, B. A.;McDonagh, E. L.
• 通讯作者: McDonagh, E. L.