Improved Prediction of 21st Century West Antarctic Climate Change: the Role of the Amundsen Sea Low

改进对 21 世纪西南极气候变化的预测：阿蒙森低气压的作用

基本信息

批准号：
NE/K004921/1
负责人：
John Adrian Pyle
金额：
$ 11.93万
依托单位：
University of Cambridge
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2014 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK004921%2F1
关键词：
Improved Prediction 21st Century West

项目摘要

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains over 2.2 million cubic kilometers of ice, which if it all melted would raise global sea level by about 5 metres. Over the last few decades West Antarctica has experienced a significant warming. Air temperatures have increased across the surface of the ice sheet, but in addition warmer ocean currents have been melting the ice sheet where it reaches the ocean. The net result has been that some of the ice flowing down to the coast of West Antarctica has been accelerating and thinning so that the coastal area of West Antarctica is now contributing almost 10% to the current rise in global sea level.The climate of West Antarctica is strongly influenced by the storms over the Southern Ocean between the Antarctic Peninsula and the Ross Sea which force warm, maritime air across the ice sheet. There are a large number of storms in this area of the Southern Ocean which are collectively called the Amundsen Sea Low. This is a highly variable feature and is influenced by the ozone 'hole' and climatic conditions across the tropical Pacific Ocean.It is extremely important to know how the climate of West Antarctica will change over the coming century so that we can produce accurate estimates of sea level rise. However, the only tools we have to predict the future are computer models that simulate the atmosphere, ocean and ice across the Earth. These models run as part of initiatives such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have a relatively coarse spatial resolution of about 200 km, which is not sufficient to accurately resolve the complex mountainous terrain of areas such as the coast of West Antarctica. For this project we will run a model with a resolution of 10 km through the 21st century to create the most detailed information yet produced of how temperature, snowfall and wind speed/direction will change as greenhouse gas concentrations increase and the ozone hole recovers. Such data will be of value to those modelling the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and enable the production of better predictions of how the ice sheet will change over the coming century and the contribution it will make to sea level rise.

南极冰盖含有超过220万立方公里的冰，如果所有冰块融化，将使全球海平面提高约5米。在过去的几十年中，西南极洲已经经历了大量的变暖。整个冰盖表面的空气温度升高，但此外，较温暖的洋流已经融化了到达海洋的冰盖。最终结果是，一些流到南极西部海岸的冰一直在加速和变薄，因此西南arctica的沿海地区现在几乎贡献了几乎10％，这对全球海平面的当前海平面上的升高造成了近10％的贡献。西南极洲的气候受到南方大洋洲南方大洋洲之间的风暴的强烈影响。南大洋地区有很多风暴，这些风暴被统称为Amundsen Sea Low。这是一个高度可变的特征，受到热带太平洋的臭氧“孔”和气候条件的影响。知道西南极的气候在未来世纪将如何变化非常重要，以便我们可以对海平面上升的准确估计。但是，我们唯一必须预测未来的工具是计算机模型，这些模型模拟了整个地球的大气，海洋和冰。这些模型是诸如政府间气候变化的倡议的一部分，其空间分辨率相对粗糙，约为200 km，这不足以准确解决南极海岸等地区的复杂山区。对于这个项目，我们将在21世纪开设一个分辨率为10公里的模型，以创建迄今为止最详细的信息，该信息迄今为止，随着温室气体浓度的增加和臭氧孔的恢复，温度，降雪和风速/方向将如何变化。这样的数据对于那些建模西南极冰盖的人来说是有价值的，并能够更好地预测冰盖在未来世纪将如何变化及其对海平面上升的贡献。