Extreme Climatic Events in Marine Ecosystems

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This project will determine the impacts of extreme climatic events on complex marine communities and ecosystems using a combination of observational, experimental and modeling approaches and, in doing so, will represent the first multi-faceted body of work on the influence of short-term climate fluctuations on the health and distribution of living marine resources and biodiversity. The world has warmed significantly over recent decades with major implications for ecosystems and the ecological goods and services they provide. Superimposed onto this gradual warming trend are short-term extreme climatic events, such as floods and heat waves, which have increased in frequency and magnitude as a direct consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Extreme events can cause catastrophic damage to ecosystems and invoke phase-shifts in ecological structure. However, knowledge of extreme climatic events in marine ecosystems is scant, having been opportunistically gained following a few disparate climatic episodes, and from simple laboratory experiments conducted on few species in isolation. There is a critical need for field-based studies conducted at the community or ecosystem level to elucidate response patterns to climatic events and, ultimately, to improve our ability to manage and conserve marine biodiversity.This project will conduct novel field experiments that simulate short-term warming events to examine the effects of 'marine heat waves' on ecological structure and function in a range of marine habitats, including seagrass meadows, kelp beds and rocky shores. The project will develop two innovative approaches for conducting in situ warming experiments, which will yield novel information on pattern-related responses (e.g. community structure) and process-related responses (e.g. species interactions, primary productivity) to extreme climatic events. Moreover, the project will examine ecological response and recovery to actual extreme warming events - the 2003 European heat wave and the 2011 ENSO event off southwest Australia -to determine the resilience of marine ecosystems to climatic fluctuations. Field-based research will also be complimented with a suite of mesocosm experiments that assess the influence of marine heat waves on ecological processes and species interactions. Finally, the project will analyse long-term temperature data to decipher temporal trends in anomalous events and develop predictive models of ecological responses to these discrete episodes. This research programme will generate vital information on how extreme climatic events impact the ecology of valuable coastal ecosystems, which is urgently needed for prediction and adaptation to climate change in our seas.