Marine Heat Waves - Global Patterns of Impacts and Risks

近几十年来，全球海洋显著变暖，导致物种分布发生变化，改变了海洋群落和生态系统的结构和功能。叠加在这种逐渐变暖趋势上的是离散的极端气候事件，海水温度可能在数周至数月的时间内大大高于正常水平。因此，在当代变暖事件期间观察到了最近记录的一些最高海水温度，这可能会推动生物多样性分布和整个生态系统结构的逐步变化。一般而言，由于人为气候变化，离散的极端气候事件的频率和强度正在增加，因此了解和预测生物对“事件”而不是“趋势”的反应变得越来越重要。在陆地领域，风暴、干旱、洪水和热浪可对生态系统造成灾难性影响，并产生重大的社会经济后果，但与此相比，关于极端气候事件如何影响海洋生态系统的知识就显得微不足道了，该项目将汇集一个国际科学家小组，整理关于海洋热浪的物理特性及其生物影响的证据。该小组将分析现有的海洋温度记录，以研究短期极端变暖事件的频率和幅度的趋势，并使用复杂的海洋气候建模方法来预测未来海洋热浪的频率。然后，该团队将综合有关海洋热浪如何影响海洋生物分布的信息，并预测未来变暖事件影响的海洋生态系统结构。该项目将大大增进我们对热浪如何影响海洋生物多样性模式以及海洋生态系统提供的生态货物和服务的可持续性的了解。

The global ocean has warmed significantly in recent decades, causing shifts in species' distributions and alterations to the structure and functioning of marine communities and ecosystems. Superimposed onto this gradual warming trend are discrete extreme climatic events, where seawater temperatures may be considerably higher than normal for periods of weeks to months. As such, some of the highest seawater temperatures on recent record have been observed during contemporary warming events, which can drive step-wise changes in the distribution of biodiversity and the structure of entire ecosystems. In general, discrete extreme climatic events are increasing in frequency and intensity as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, so that understanding and predicting biological responses to 'events', rather than 'trends', is becoming increasingly important. In the terrestrial realm storms, droughts, floods and heat waves can have catastrophic effects on ecosystems, with significant socio-economic ramifications, but knowledge of how extreme climatic events shape marine ecosystems pales in comparison.This project will bring together an international team of scientists to collate evidence on the physical properties of marine heat waves and their biological impacts. The team will analyse existing sea temperate records to examine trends in the frequency and magnitude of short-term extreme warming events and use sophisticated ocean climate modelling approaches to predict the frequency of marine heat waves in the future. The team will then synthesise information on how marine heat waves affect the distribution of life in the sea, and make predictions of the structure of marine ecosystems impacted by future warming events. The project will significantly advance our understanding of how heat waves may affect marine biodiversity patterns and the sustainability of ecological goods and services provided by marine ecosystems.