Characterising and adapting to climate risks in the UK wine sector

英国葡萄酒行业气候风险的特征和适应

• 批准号: NE/S016848/1
• 负责人: Declan Conway
• 金额: $ 27.47万
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS016848%2F1
• 关键词: Characterising; adapting; climate; risks; UK

The cultivation of wine grapes under cool-climate conditions in England and Wales is rapidly expanding and resulting sparkling wines in particular are winning international awards and acclaim. Warming growing season trends associated with global warming are supporting growth in vineyard numbers and the planting of more consumer popular grape varieties, while also attracting significant international investment interest. However, while the 2018 growing season has produced a record harvest, in very grape-friendly growing conditions, year to year fluctuations in climate still regularly threaten the sustainability of the sector. Yields are still on average less than one third of those found in the Champagne region of France, for example, and in certain years such as 2012, some English vineyards harvested no grapes at all.The proposed collaboration is between the London School of Economics and the University of East Anglia. Researchers at each institute have highly relevant experience, for example, the team includes a wine sector specialist, a climate scientist and a social scientist with experience of adaptation in businesses.The first aim of this research is to capitalise on the launch of new future climate change projections for the UK to assess how critical growing season characteristics for wine grapes may change over the coming decades. We propose to develop our research which has focused upon the development of the wine sector up to now, to show how future climate trends out to 2050 may influence the sector, and thereby offer guidance to enhance the sector's resilience to climate change. Second, working directly with the national organisation for grape growers and winemakers (Wines of Great Britain), we will examine how businesses make decisions about adapting to future climate change, thereby helping to ensure that this fledgling industry has a bright future. As yet, there is limited information about climate change that wine producers or investors can use for decision making. The research has the following objectives:1) To produce a very detailed dataset of air frost risk (still a critical hazard for grape growth) to more accurately quantify local frost risk and hence site suitability for growing grapes (viticulture) in the current climate.2) To develop indicators of climatic risk under future climate change for the 2030s and 2050s based on newly available climate model projections for the UK.3) To assess decision-making processes with respect to adaptation in the wine sector and examine the role of perceptions of climate change risk and opportunities in decision-making.The wine sector can be used as an example of an 'early adoptor' of climate adaptation in the UK through which there is an opportunity to study the process by which businesses are making decisions about risk management. Since the overall direction of change in climate has been positive for UK wine production this proposal focuses, unusually, on both the opportunities and risks of climate change.Our research will use a multi-methods approach. Climate science for the development of new climate projections and climatic risk factors. And social science or qualitative methods (interviews and survey) to understand the resilience and behavioural dimensions of adaptation. The research is designed to generate practical support for adaptation to climate change in the UK (climate resilience) particularly for, but not restricted to, the wine sector. Informed by our longstanding relationship with stakeholders in the wine sector we will advise national climate change assessments and policy processes through consultation. We will work alongside Wines of Great Britain to ensure a co-designed and shared approach. We will work with a Communications and Policy team to identify audiences and the main messages from our results and prepare a Policy Brief for decision-makers and a short video (for YouTube) that captures our key recommendations.

在英格兰和威尔士凉爽气候条件下的葡萄葡萄种植正在迅速扩大，尤其是闪闪发光的葡萄酒是赢得国际奖项和好评。与全球变暖相关的变暖生长季节趋势支持葡萄园数量的增长和种植更多消费者流行的葡萄品种，同时也引起了巨大的国际投资兴趣。然而，尽管2018年的生长季节已经产生了创纪录的收获，但在非常葡萄的生长条件下，气候下的年度波动仍会定期威胁到该行业的可持续性。例如，在法国香槟地区发现的收益率仍然不到三分之一，例如，在2012年的某些年份中，一些英国葡萄园根本没有收获葡萄。拟议的合作是伦敦经济学院与东英吉利大学之间的合作。每个研究所的研究人员都有高度相关的经验，例如，该团队包括一名葡萄酒行业专家，气候科学家和具有企业适应经验的社会科学家。这项研究的第一个目的是利用英国的新未来的未来气候变化预测，以评估未来十几十年代的葡萄酒葡萄的关键生长季节特征如何变化。我们建议开发我们的研究，该研究集中在迄今为止的葡萄酒行业发展，以展示未来的气候趋势到2050年可能会影响该行业，从而提供指导，以增强该行业对气候变化的弹性。其次，直接与国家葡萄种植者和酿酒师组织（英国的葡萄酒）合作，我们将研究企业如何决定适应未来的气候变化，从而有助于确保这个刚刚起步的行业拥有光明的未来。到目前为止，关于葡萄酒生产商或投资者可以用于决策的气候变化的信息有限。这项研究具有以下目标：1）产生非常详细的空气风险数据集（仍然是葡萄增长的危险危险），以更准确地量化当地霜冻风险，从而适用于当前气候中生长的葡萄（Viticulture）的适用性。葡萄酒行业的适应性并研究了对气候变化风险和机会在决策中的看法的作用。葡萄酒行业可以用作英国气候适应的“早期收养者”的一个例子，在该企业中，企业通过该过程进行了企业进行决策的过程。由于气候变化的总体方向对英国葡萄酒的生产是积极的，因此这一提议不寻常地关注气候变化的机遇和风险。我们的研究将采用多方法方法。气候科学开发新的气候预测和气候风险因素。以及社会科学或定性方法（访谈和调查），以了解适应性的弹性和行为维度。该研究旨在为适应英国的气候变化（气候弹性）提供实用支持，尤其是但不限于葡萄酒行业。通过我们与葡萄酒行业利益相关者的长期关系所告知，我们将通过咨询建议国家气候变化评估和政策流程。我们将与英国的葡萄酒一起工作，以确保共同设计和共同的方法。我们将与一个沟通和政策团队合作，从我们的结果中识别受众和主要消息，并为决策者和简短的视频（YouTube）准备政策简介，以捕获我们的关键建议。

项目成果

Adaptation to climate change in the UK wine sector

英国葡萄酒行业适应气候变化

• DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100572
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Climate Risk Management
• 影响因子: 4.4
• 作者: Gannon K

Climate change projections for UK viticulture to 2040: a focus on improving suitability for Pinot Noir

到 2040 年英国葡萄栽培的气候变化预测：重点是提高黑皮诺的适宜性

• DOI: 10.20870/oeno-one.2022.56.3.5398
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: OENO One
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Nesbitt A