Characterising and adapting to climate risks in the UK wine sector

英国葡萄酒行业气候风险的特征和适应

• 批准号: NE/S016848/1
• 负责人: Declan Conway
• 金额: $ 27.47万
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS016848%2F1
• 关键词: Characterising; adapting; climate; risks; UK

The cultivation of wine grapes under cool-climate conditions in England and Wales is rapidly expanding and resulting sparkling wines in particular are winning international awards and acclaim. Warming growing season trends associated with global warming are supporting growth in vineyard numbers and the planting of more consumer popular grape varieties, while also attracting significant international investment interest. However, while the 2018 growing season has produced a record harvest, in very grape-friendly growing conditions, year to year fluctuations in climate still regularly threaten the sustainability of the sector. Yields are still on average less than one third of those found in the Champagne region of France, for example, and in certain years such as 2012, some English vineyards harvested no grapes at all.The proposed collaboration is between the London School of Economics and the University of East Anglia. Researchers at each institute have highly relevant experience, for example, the team includes a wine sector specialist, a climate scientist and a social scientist with experience of adaptation in businesses.The first aim of this research is to capitalise on the launch of new future climate change projections for the UK to assess how critical growing season characteristics for wine grapes may change over the coming decades. We propose to develop our research which has focused upon the development of the wine sector up to now, to show how future climate trends out to 2050 may influence the sector, and thereby offer guidance to enhance the sector's resilience to climate change. Second, working directly with the national organisation for grape growers and winemakers (Wines of Great Britain), we will examine how businesses make decisions about adapting to future climate change, thereby helping to ensure that this fledgling industry has a bright future. As yet, there is limited information about climate change that wine producers or investors can use for decision making. The research has the following objectives:1) To produce a very detailed dataset of air frost risk (still a critical hazard for grape growth) to more accurately quantify local frost risk and hence site suitability for growing grapes (viticulture) in the current climate.2) To develop indicators of climatic risk under future climate change for the 2030s and 2050s based on newly available climate model projections for the UK.3) To assess decision-making processes with respect to adaptation in the wine sector and examine the role of perceptions of climate change risk and opportunities in decision-making.The wine sector can be used as an example of an 'early adoptor' of climate adaptation in the UK through which there is an opportunity to study the process by which businesses are making decisions about risk management. Since the overall direction of change in climate has been positive for UK wine production this proposal focuses, unusually, on both the opportunities and risks of climate change.Our research will use a multi-methods approach. Climate science for the development of new climate projections and climatic risk factors. And social science or qualitative methods (interviews and survey) to understand the resilience and behavioural dimensions of adaptation. The research is designed to generate practical support for adaptation to climate change in the UK (climate resilience) particularly for, but not restricted to, the wine sector. Informed by our longstanding relationship with stakeholders in the wine sector we will advise national climate change assessments and policy processes through consultation. We will work alongside Wines of Great Britain to ensure a co-designed and shared approach. We will work with a Communications and Policy team to identify audiences and the main messages from our results and prepare a Policy Brief for decision-makers and a short video (for YouTube) that captures our key recommendations.

英格兰和威尔士凉爽气候条件下的酿酒葡萄种植正在迅速扩大，所生产的起泡酒尤其赢得了国际奖项和赞誉。与全球变暖相关的生长季节变暖趋势正在支持葡萄园数量的增长和更多消费者喜爱的葡萄品种的种植，同时也吸引了大量的国际投资兴趣。然而，尽管 2018 年生长季的收成创历史新高，但在非常适合葡萄生长的条件下，气候的逐年波动仍然经常威胁着该行业的可持续性。例如，平均产量仍不到法国香槟地区产量的三分之一，而且在 2012 年等某些年份，一些英国葡萄园根本没有收获任何葡萄。拟议的合作是伦敦经济学院和东安格利亚大学之间的合作。每个研究所的研究人员都拥有高度相关的经验，例如，该团队包括一名葡萄酒行业专家、一名气候科学家和一名具有商业适应经验的社会科学家。这项研究的首要目标是利用英国推出的新的未来气候变化预测来评估酿酒葡萄的关键生长季节特征在未来几十年可能会发生怎样的变化。我们建议开展迄今为止重点关注葡萄酒行业发展的研究，以展示到2050年的未来气候趋势可能如何影响该行业，从而为增强该行业应对气候变化的抵御能力提供指导。其次，我们将与国家葡萄种植者和酿酒师组织（英国葡萄酒协会）直接合作，研究企业如何做出适应未来气候变化的决策，从而帮助确保这个新兴行业拥有光明的未来。迄今为止，葡萄酒生产商或投资者可用于决策的有关气候变化的信息有限。该研究有以下目标：1) 生成非常详细的空气霜冻风险数据集（仍然对葡萄生长构成重大危害），以更准确地量化当地霜冻风险，从而确定当前气候下种植葡萄（葡萄栽培）的场地适宜性。2) 根据英国最新的气候模型预测，制定 2030 年代和 2050 年代未来气候变化下的气候风险指标。3) 评估有关以下方面的决策过程： 葡萄酒行业可以作为英国气候适应“早期采用者”的一个例子，通过它可以研究企业制定风险管理决策的过程。由于气候变化的总体方向对英国葡萄酒生产有利，因此该提案异常关注气候变化的机遇和风险。我们的研究将采用多种方法。气候科学用于制定新的气候预测和气候风险因素。以及社会科学或定性方法（访谈和调查）来了解适应的弹性和行为维度。该研究旨在为英国适应气候变化（气候复原力）提供实际支持，特别是但不限于葡萄酒行业。根据我们与葡萄酒行业利益相关者的长期关系，我们将通过协商为国家气候变化评估和政策流程提供建议。我们将与英国葡萄酒协会合作，确保采用共同设计和共享的方法。我们将与沟通和政策团队合作，确定受众和我们结果中的主要信息，并为决策者准备政策简报和包含我们主要建议的短片（适用于 YouTube）。

项目成果

Adaptation to climate change in the UK wine sector

英国葡萄酒行业适应气候变化

• DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100572
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Climate Risk Management
• 影响因子: 4.4
• 作者: Gannon K

Climate change projections for UK viticulture to 2040: a focus on improving suitability for Pinot Noir

到 2040 年英国葡萄栽培的气候变化预测：重点是提高黑皮诺的适宜性

• DOI: 10.20870/oeno-one.2022.56.3.5398
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: OENO One
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Nesbitt A