Are national HFC emissions reports suitable for global policy negotiation?

国家氢氟碳化合物排放报告是否适合全球政策谈判？

• 批准号: NE/M014851/1
• 负责人: Matthew Rigby
• 金额: $ 41.74万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM014851%2F1
• 关键词: national; HFC; emissions; reports; suitable

Negotiations are underway to determine whether the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) should be regulated under the Montreal Protocol, the international treaty that is designed to protect the stratospheric ozone layer. Whilst HFCs do not deplete stratospheric ozone, they are potent greenhouse gases (GHG), with global warming potentials hundreds to thousands of times that of carbon dioxide. Therefore, proponents of the proposed amendments to the Protocol argue that, because their rapid growth in the atmosphere is a direct result of the global phase-down of ozone depleting substances, for which HFCs are replacements, their resulting impact on global climate should now be regulated under the same framework. A major limitation of the on-going discussions is that emissions of HFCs are very poorly constrained at present, with more than 60% of the global emissions, as determined using atmospheric measurements, being un-reported in 2012. This could be due to poor reporting practices, and/or the incomplete nature of global emissions reports under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in which only a subset of countries are required to report their emissions in detail. Recent estimates of the emissions of HFCs and other synthetic GHGs derived from atmospheric measurements indicate that both factors are likely to contribute. However, a comprehensive evaluation of such "top-down" emissions estimates for the major reporting countries has not yet been carried out. Furthermore, we argue that the uncertainty quantification methods in the "inverse" modelling frameworks that are used to derive emissions of HFCs (and all other GHGs) must be dramatically improved if they are to be robust and relevant to policy makers.This proposal aims to develop new methods for estimating national GHG emissions using atmospheric observations and chemical transport models. In particular, we will pioneer the use of hierarchical Bayesian modelling and Gaussian process emulation. These techniques will allow us, for the first time, to explicitly include the influence of some critical uncertainties in the atmospheric modelling process on "top-down" emissions estimates. This will allow us to estimate national emissions of the major HFCs with a more complete estimate of the uncertainty than has previously been possible. We will examine in detail the differences between these emissions estimates and the national inventories, and determine critically whether the current reports submitted to the UNFCCC are appropriate for informing the debate on the future of the Montreal Protocol.

目前正在进行谈判，以确定氢氟碳化合物的使用是否应受到《蒙特利尔议定书》的管制。《蒙特利尔议定书》是一项旨在保护平流层臭氧层的国际条约。虽然氢氟碳化物不会消耗平流层臭氧，但它们是强效温室气体（GHG），其全球变暖潜能值是二氧化碳的数百至数千倍。因此，《议定书》修正案提案的支持者认为，由于氢氟碳化物在大气中的快速增长是全球逐步减少臭氧消耗物质（氢氟碳化物是其替代品）的直接结果，因此它们对全球气候的影响现在应在同一框架下加以管制。目前正在进行的讨论的一个主要限制是氢氟碳化物的排放目前受到的限制非常差，2012年使用大气测量确定的全球排放量中有60%以上没有报告。这可能是由于报告做法不佳，和/或《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）下全球排放报告的不完整，在该公约中，只有一小部分国家被要求详细报告其排放量。最近根据大气测量得出的对氢氟碳化物和其他合成温室气体排放量的估计表明，这两个因素都可能起作用。然而，尚未对主要报告国的这种“自上而下”的排放估计进行全面评估。此外，我们认为，如果要使“逆”建模框架中的不确定性量化方法可靠并与政策制定者相关，则必须大幅改进用于计算氢氟碳化物（以及所有其他温室气体）排放量的方法。该提案旨在开发利用大气观测和化学输运模型估算国家温室气体排放量的新方法。特别是，我们将率先使用分层贝叶斯建模和高斯过程仿真。这些技术将使我们第一次能够明确地将大气模拟过程中一些关键不确定性对“自上而下”排放估算的影响包括在内。这将使我们能够估计主要氢氟碳化物的国家排放量，对不确定性的估计比以前更全面。我们将详细研究这些排放估计与国家清单之间的差异，并批判性地确定当前提交给UNFCCC的报告是否适合为关于《蒙特利尔议定书》未来的辩论提供信息。

项目成果

Atmospheric observations show accurate reporting and little growth in India's methane emissions.

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00994-7
• 发表时间: 2017-10-10
• 期刊: Nature communications
• 影响因子: 16.6
• 作者: Ganesan AL;Rigby M;Lunt MF;Parker RJ;Boesch H;Goulding N;Umezawa T;Zahn A;Chatterjee A;Prinn RG;Tiwari YK;van der Schoot M;Krummel PB
• 通讯作者: Krummel PB

Rapid increase in ozone-depleting chloroform emissions from China

• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-018-0278-2
• 发表时间: 2019-02-01
• 期刊: NATURE GEOSCIENCE
• 影响因子: 18.3
• 作者: Fang, Xuekun;Park, Sunyoung;Prinn, Ronald G.
• 通讯作者: Prinn, Ronald G.

Rapid increase in dichloromethane emissions from China inferred through atmospheric observations.

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27592-y
• 发表时间: 2021-12-14
• 期刊: Nature communications
• 影响因子: 16.6
• 作者: An M;Western LM;Say D;Chen L;Claxton T;Ganesan AL;Hossaini R;Krummel PB;Manning AJ;Mühle J;O'Doherty S;Prinn RG;Weiss RF;Young D;Hu J;Yao B;Rigby M
• 通讯作者: Rigby M

Atmospheric observations consistent with reported decline in the UK's methane emissions, 2013-2020

大气观测结果与 2013 年至 2020 年英国甲烷排放量下降情况一致

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-548
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Lunt M

Atmospheric HCFC-22, HFC-125, and HFC-152a at Cape Point, South Africa.

南非开普角的大气 HCFC-22、HFC-125 和 HFC-152a。

• DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.9b01612
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Environmental science & technology
• 影响因子: 11.4
• 作者: Kuyper B