COVID-19: Rapid detection of the impact of COVID-19 on UK greenhouse gas emissions

COVID-19：快速检测 COVID-19 对英国温室气体排放的影响

• 批准号: NE/V00963X/1
• 负责人: Matthew Rigby
• 金额: $ 10.18万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV00963X%2F1
• 关键词: COVID; 19; Rapid; detection; impact

The nationwide restrictions on social interaction brought about by the COVID-19 outbreak have the potential to dramatically change the UK's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, given the lack of precedent, it is difficult to predict the sign, magnitude, or spatial and temporal change that may occur. Atmospheric GHG observations are sensitive to emissions changes over very short timescales (hours to days), and therefore "top-down" (atmospheric data-based) inference of GHG emissions has the potential to provide rapid updates to climate researchers, the public and stakeholders (e.g. BEIS and the UK's GHG inventory compilers). There have already been reports of reductions in atmospheric concentrations of GHGs and air pollutants in the media from across the world. However, these reports have sometimes lacked scientific rigour, ignoring the critical influence of meteorology and seasonality. Here, we aim to use data from the UK's unique GHG measurement network (the UK DECC network) and adapt our atmospheric modelling and statistical inference frameworks to provide robust information on any rapid changes in UK GHG emissions that occur during the period of COVID-19-related restrictions. Conversely, the change in anthropogenic activity provides an unprecedented opportunity to test top-down (atmospheric data-based) emissions inference frameworks, such as those used to report UK GHG emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

新冠肺炎疫情带来的全国性社交限制有可能极大地改变英国的温室气体排放。然而，鉴于缺乏先例，很难预测可能发生的符号、幅度或时空变化。大气温室气体观测对极短时间尺度(几小时到几天)的排放变化非常敏感，因此对温室气体排放的“自上而下”(基于大气数据)推断有可能向气候研究人员、公众和利益攸关方(例如BEIS和英国的温室气体清单编制者)提供快速更新。世界各地已经有报道称，大气中温室气体和空气污染物的浓度有所下降。然而，这些报告有时缺乏科学严谨性，忽视了气象学和季节性的关键影响。在这里，我们的目标是使用来自英国独特的温室气体测量网络(英国DECC网络)的数据，并调整我们的大气建模和统计推断框架，以提供关于在实施与新冠肺炎相关的限制期间英国温室气体排放的任何快速变化的可靠信息。相反，人为活动的变化为测试自上而下(基于大气数据)的排放推断框架提供了前所未有的机会，例如用于向《联合国气候变化框架公约》报告英国温室气体排放量的框架。

项目成果

Atmospheric observations consistent with reported decline in the UK's methane emissions, 2013-2020

大气观测结果与 2013 年至 2020 年英国甲烷排放量下降情况一致

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-548
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Lunt M

Atmospheric oxygen as a tracer for fossil fuel carbon dioxide: a sensitivity study in the UK

大气中的氧气作为化石燃料二氧化碳的示踪剂：英国的一项敏感性研究

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-385
• 发表时间: 2023
• 作者: Chawner H

Atmospheric observations consistent with reported decline in the UK's methane emissions (2013-2020)

大气观测结果与报告的英国甲烷排放量下降一致（2013-2020 年）

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-16257-2021
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Lunt M