AMMA-2050 NEC05274

AMMA-2050 NEC05274

• 批准号: NE/M020428/2
• 负责人: Christopher Taylor
• 金额: $ 36.86万
• 依托单位: UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM020428%2F2
• 关键词: AMMA; 2050; NEC05274

The climate of West Africa is subject to some of the most variable rainfall patterns observed anywhere in the world. In the past, the region has suffered several decades of severe droughts, whilst more recently major flood events have struck a number of the region's rapidly expanding cities. The consequences of these climatic extremes for the population have been particularly pronounced due to widespread and severe poverty. Global climate change, coming on top of such a variable and unpredictable regional climate, poses a major threat to the populations and economies of West Africa. Although the pathway from climate change to human suffering in West Africa is very short, there are some key bottlenecks to using climate projections to mitigate against risks to the population. Critical gaps exist in knowledge of how West African climate will change over the course of the 21st century, and the uncertainties make it almost impossible for agencies to deliver well-informed plans for the coming decades in critical areas such as food security, urban development and water. Even with the best climate information, it remains a significant challenge to integrate the scientific knowledge into planning and management structures. This collaborative project between scientists and policy makers in West Africa and Europe will, on the one hand, increase understanding of the regional climate and how it will change, and on the other, apply that knowledge to practical development questions.One of the key challenges for climate science is to understand how the changing composition of the atmosphere (notably CO2) will impact on the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods and droughts. In West Africa, these events are tied to the behaviour of convective rain storms; when storms are particularly intense or occur in rapid succession, devastating floods may result, whilst a week or two without storms during the wet season can trigger crop failure. Climate scientists rely on computer simulations of the global atmosphere, oceans and continents, yet these models have a very crude description of convective storms. For the first time, a new generation of regional climate models is emerging which realistically depict storms, and critically, how storms respond to factors such as land and ocean conditions, and increases in CO2. AMMA-2050 will use these new computer simulations alongside conventional climate models and historical observations, to understand why the statistics of key climate extremes are changing, and what this tells us about climate and its extremes in future decades. The outputs from the models will be used to examine impacts on key sectors in West African society, notably water and agriculture. Adaptation options will be explored, for example through the use of alternative crops, taking account of the inherent uncertainties in climate information, and the ways in which it is interpreted by decision-makers. We will focus on two questions. Firstly, in Senegal we will identify sustainable agricultural adaptation strategies and the policy frameworks to support those options. Secondly, we will examine how climate changes are likely to affect flooding in the rapidly growing city of Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso. The research and capacity building work of AMMA-2050 will help develop a new generation of African researchers and decision-makers, well-placed to respond to the requirements of West African nations. Within AMMA-2050, end-users have an important role, and their needs are embedded in project design and delivery, such that outputs will be responsive to their needs, and delivered in a format that is easily used. Enhanced resilience is an important aim of the project: it starts with improving our understanding of the climate signal over West Africa and leads through to decisions being made in specific pilot studies that showcase the importance of using improved and impact-sensitive science outputs.

西非的气候受世界上任何地方观察到的一些最多变的降雨模式的影响。过去，该区域遭受了几十年的严重干旱，而最近的大洪水袭击了该区域一些迅速扩大的城市。这些极端气候对人口造成的后果由于普遍和严重的贫困而尤为明显。全球气候变化，加上这种多变和不可预测的区域气候，对西非的人口和经济构成重大威胁。虽然西非从气候变化到人类苦难的道路很短，但在利用气候预测来减轻对人口的风险方面存在一些关键瓶颈。关于西非气候在21世纪世纪将如何变化的知识存在重大差距，不确定性使各机构几乎不可能在粮食安全、城市发展和水等关键领域为未来几十年提供充分知情的计划。即使有最好的气候信息，将科学知识纳入规划和管理结构仍然是一项重大挑战。西非和欧洲的科学家和决策者之间的这一合作项目一方面将增加对区域气候及其变化的了解，另一方面，气候科学面临的主要挑战之一是了解大气成分的变化是如何影响气候变化的。气候变化（特别是二氧化碳）将影响洪水和干旱等极端事件的频率和强度。在西非，这些事件与对流暴雨的行为有关;当风暴特别强烈或连续发生时，可能会造成毁灭性的洪水，而雨季一两周没有风暴可能会导致作物歉收。气候科学家依赖于全球大气、海洋和大陆的计算机模拟，但这些模型对对流风暴的描述非常粗略。新一代的区域气候模型首次出现，能够真实地描述风暴，并关键地描述风暴如何对陆地和海洋条件以及二氧化碳增加等因素作出反应。AMMA-2050将使用这些新的计算机模拟以及传统的气候模型和历史观测，以了解为什么关键气候极端事件的统计数据正在发生变化，以及这告诉我们未来几十年的气候及其极端事件。这些模型的产出将用于审查对西非社会主要部门，特别是水和农业的影响。将探讨各种适应办法，例如通过使用替代作物，同时考虑到气候信息固有的不确定性，以及决策者解释气候信息的方式。我们将集中讨论两个问题。首先，在塞内加尔，我们将确定可持续的农业适应战略和支持这些选择的政策框架。其次，我们将研究气候变化可能如何影响布基纳法索快速发展的瓦加杜古市的洪水。AMMA-2050的研究和能力建设工作将有助于培养新一代非洲研究人员和决策者，以满足西非国家的需求。在AMMA-2050中，最终用户发挥着重要作用，他们的需求被嵌入到项目设计和交付中，因此产出将满足他们的需求，并以易于使用的格式交付。增强复原力是该项目的一个重要目标：它从提高我们对西非气候信号的理解开始，并导致在具体的试点研究中做出决定，展示使用改进的和对影响敏感的科学产出的重要性。

项目成果

Influence of initial soil moisture in a regional climate model study over West Africa - Part 2: Impact on the climate extremes

西非区域气候模型研究中初始土壤湿度的影响 - 第 2 部分：对极端气候的影响

• DOI: 10.5194/hess-26-731-2022
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Koné B

What Drives the Intensification of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the West African Sahel under Climate Change?

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0380.1
• 发表时间: 2020-04-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Fitzpatrick, Rory G. J.;Parker, Douglas J.;Tucker, Simon
• 通讯作者: Tucker, Simon

Combining CMIP data with a regional convection-permitting model and observations to project extreme rainfall under climate change

将 CMIP 数据与区域对流允许模型和观测相结合，预测气候变化下的极端降雨

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac26f1
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Klein C

A synthetic view of rainfall intensification in the West African Sahel

西非萨赫勒地区降雨强度的综合看法

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a9c
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Chagnaud G

Performance of dry and wet spells combined with remote sensing indicators for crop yield prediction in Senegal

塞内加尔干湿期表现与遥感指标相结合用于作物产量预测

• DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100331
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Climate Risk Management
• 影响因子: 4.4
• 作者: Fall C