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TerraMaris: The Maritime Continent - Driver of the Global Climate System

TerraMaris：海洋大陆 - 全球气候系统的驱动力

基本信息

批准号：
NE/R016739/1
负责人：
Cathryn Birch
金额：
$ 157.2万
依托单位：
University of Leeds
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR016739%2F1
关键词：
TerraMaris Maritime Continent Driver Global

项目摘要

The Maritime Continent (MC) is the archipelago of tropical islands that lies between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, with a population of over 400 million. It comprises large (Sumatra, Java, Borneo, and New Guinea) and many smaller islands, with high mountains. High solar input warms the surrounding seas, which supply an abundance of moisture to the atmosphere, turning the whole region into an atmospheric "boiler box". Deep convective clouds rise up over the islands every day, leading to average rainfall rates in excess of 10 mm per day, approximately three times the rainfall rate over the UK. As well as supplying local agriculture, rain that falls over the MC has a far-reaching, global effect on weather and climate. Tremendous heat energy is released by condensation into the atmosphere in these convective clouds. This heat source drives giant, overturning circulations in the atmosphere: the Hadley and Walker cells, which feed into the jet streams and lead to weather and climate changes far downstream, even over the UK. For example, the origins of the infamous cold winter of 1962/63 and the recent very cold March of 2013 have been traced to atmospheric convection over the MC. For these reasons, the MC has been described as the engine room of the global climate system.Due to the complex nature of the distribution of the islands, and fundamental inadequacies in current models of the atmosphere (mainly related to their representation of convection), both climate predictions and weather forecasts show serious errors over the MC, particularly in their simulation of rainfall. Up until now, these errors have been extremely difficult to address, as there has been a lack of suitable observations over this region. Computing power, and the atmospheric modelling expertise to harness the advances in computing resources, has been inadequate to run computer models with sufficient detail to resolve the convective processes and their interactions, which are the building blocks of atmospheric circulation, for long enough to allow interactions with larger scales.However, we now stand on the cusp of transforming our understanding of atmospheric processes over the MC. Computer power and modelling expertise have progressed to the point where we have the capability to run simulations of the atmosphere at sufficient resolution to accurately capture the complex distribution of islands, and to accurately model the convective processes themselves. In response to this, the international Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC) field experiment (2017-2020) will make the measurements of the atmosphere and ocean at the very small scales that are needed to evaluate and understand the outputs of these new model simulations. Through TerraMaris the UK will take a leading role in YMC, by making observations of convective processes over the MC using the UK meteorological research aircraft, atmospheric radars, balloon and land-based measurements on the islands, and observing the surrounding seas using autonomous underwater and surface vehicles. This unprecedented suite of coordinated observations will complement measurements being taken by our international partners. The UK and the TerraMaris research team has led the way in developing high-resolution atmospheric modelling over recent years. We will apply the skills and knowledge learned to understand the complex mechanisms behind the multiple scales of convection and atmospheric circulations that have made the weather over the MC such a tough problem to crack. This knowledge will enable ground-breaking advances in atmospheric modelling, to improve weather forecasts and climate prediction over the MC region, with direct benefit to the substantial regional population. The downstream effects will see these benefits extend to the far corners of the globe, improving global and regional medium-range weather prediction, and climate projections.

海洋大陆（MC）是位于印度洋和太平洋之间的热带岛屿群岛，人口超过4亿。它包括大的（苏门答腊、爪哇、婆罗洲和新几内亚）和许多小的岛屿，有高山。大量的太阳能输入使周围的海洋变暖，为大气提供了丰富的水分，将整个地区变成了大气中的“锅炉箱”。深深的对流云每天都在岛上上升，导致平均降雨量超过每天10毫米，大约是英国降雨量的三倍。除了为当地农业提供供应外，落在MC上的雨水对天气和气候有着深远的全球影响。在这些对流云中，大量的热能通过凝结释放到大气中。这种热源驱动着巨大的、颠覆性的大气环流：哈德利和沃克环流，它们进入急流，导致远至下游的天气和气候变化，甚至影响到英国。例如，1962/63年臭名昭著的寒冷冬季和最近的2013年3月非常寒冷的起源可以追溯到MC上的大气对流。由于这些原因，MC被描述为全球气候系统的机舱。由于岛屿分布的复杂性，以及目前大气模式的根本不足（主要与对流表示有关），气候预测和天气预报在MC上都显示出严重的错误，特别是在模拟降雨方面。到目前为止，由于缺乏对该地区的适当观测，这些误差极难解决。计算能力和利用先进计算资源的大气建模专业知识，不足以运行具有足够细节的计算机模型来解决对流过程及其相互作用，而对流过程是大气环流的组成部分，需要足够长的时间才能实现更大尺度的相互作用。然而，我们现在站在改变我们对MC大气过程的理解的尖端。计算机能力和建模专业知识已经发展到我们有能力以足够的分辨率对大气进行模拟，以准确捕捉岛屿的复杂分布，并准确地模拟对流过程本身。为此，国际海洋大陆年（YMC）野外实验（2017-2020）将在非常小的尺度上对大气和海洋进行测量，以评估和理解这些新模式模拟的输出。通过TerraMaris，英国将在YMC中发挥主导作用，通过使用英国气象研究飞机、大气雷达、气球和岛屿上的陆基测量来观测MC上的对流过程，并使用自主水下和水面车辆观察周围海域。这一套前所未有的协调观测将补充我们的国际伙伴正在采取的测量。近年来，英国和TerraMaris研究团队在开发高分辨率大气模型方面处于领先地位。我们将运用所学的技能和知识，了解多尺度对流和大气环流背后的复杂机制，这些机制使MC上空的天气成为一个难以解决的问题。这些知识将使大气模拟取得突破性进展，以改善MC地区的天气预报和气候预测，直接惠及大量区域人口。下游效应将使这些好处延伸到地球的偏远角落，改善全球和区域中期天气预报和气候预测。