[Malaysia] IMpacts of PRecipitation from Extreme StormS - Malaysia (IMPRESS - Malaysia)

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In a warmer climate, the amount of precipitation is expected to increase, as warmer air can hold more water. At the regional level - where impacts are felt - patterns of change are less well understood due to uncertainty in the circulation response to warming. In addition to these changes in mean precipitation, increases in precipitation extremes may be considerable, and are expected to increase at around 7% per degree Celsius of warming. Extreme events frequently cause the greatest damage, making understanding the nature of changes in both the frequency and magnitude of such extremes a critical issue given their impact on society.In Peninsular Malaysia, the majority of the annual total precipitation is produced by a relatively small number of intense events. These extreme precipitation events have been increasing in recent decades. They can lead to considerable damage through flooding, which can be enhanced by changes in land use. Annual, average annual flood losses are currently around RM 915 million in Malaysia. In a warmer climate, a shift to a more intense wet season (which is expected), with increased frequency of the most extreme events, may have significant implications for the hydrology of Peninsular Malaysia and associated impacts on society.In this project, we will investigate the dynamical features (e.g. tropical storms) that lead to extreme precipitation in Malaysia. We will study both their present-day behaviour and likely changes in the future. In doing so, we will achieve a dynamically constrained understanding of future extreme precipitation events. This represents a considerable advance on our current understanding of future changes in extreme precipitation in Malaysia. We will then use this information to run a hydrological model to estimate future changes in streamflow, flood magnitudes and flood return periods. This model will include estimates of land use change which will also be developed as part of the project. Through this, information of unprecedented detail will be available to Malaysian government and society of the risks and impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation and associated changes in river flow. We will also use this information to assess current intervention strategies and to develop a model of flood management which takes into account our improved understanding of flood risk. This information will be disseminated to a wide array of actors across government and civil society to ensure it has maximum impact. Ensuring that future infrastructural, societal and agricultural development in Malaysia is informed by prospective changes in key climate events is critical if we are to successfully adapt to a warmer climate, whilst mitigating the impact of any changes on society and the economy of Malaysia. This project has the capacity to make a significant contribution to that aim.The techniques developed as part of this project could be readily applied in other river basins and countries, such that the impact and longevity of this work could be far broader than the scope currently envisaged. The project partners intend to work with other collaborators to ensure that these broader benefits are realised.