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[Malaysia] IMpacts of PRecipitation from Extreme StormS - Malaysia (IMPRESS - Malaysia)

[马来西亚] 极端风暴降水的影响 - 马来西亚（IMPRESS - 马来西亚）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/S002707/1
负责人：
James Haywood
金额：
$ 40.63万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS002707%2F1
关键词：
Malaysia IMpacts PRecipitation Extreme StormS

项目摘要

In a warmer climate, the amount of precipitation is expected to increase, as warmer air can hold more water. At the regional level - where impacts are felt - patterns of change are less well understood due to uncertainty in the circulation response to warming. In addition to these changes in mean precipitation, increases in precipitation extremes may be considerable, and are expected to increase at around 7% per degree Celsius of warming. Extreme events frequently cause the greatest damage, making understanding the nature of changes in both the frequency and magnitude of such extremes a critical issue given their impact on society.In Peninsular Malaysia, the majority of the annual total precipitation is produced by a relatively small number of intense events. These extreme precipitation events have been increasing in recent decades. They can lead to considerable damage through flooding, which can be enhanced by changes in land use. Annual, average annual flood losses are currently around RM 915 million in Malaysia. In a warmer climate, a shift to a more intense wet season (which is expected), with increased frequency of the most extreme events, may have significant implications for the hydrology of Peninsular Malaysia and associated impacts on society.In this project, we will investigate the dynamical features (e.g. tropical storms) that lead to extreme precipitation in Malaysia. We will study both their present-day behaviour and likely changes in the future. In doing so, we will achieve a dynamically constrained understanding of future extreme precipitation events. This represents a considerable advance on our current understanding of future changes in extreme precipitation in Malaysia. We will then use this information to run a hydrological model to estimate future changes in streamflow, flood magnitudes and flood return periods. This model will include estimates of land use change which will also be developed as part of the project. Through this, information of unprecedented detail will be available to Malaysian government and society of the risks and impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation and associated changes in river flow. We will also use this information to assess current intervention strategies and to develop a model of flood management which takes into account our improved understanding of flood risk. This information will be disseminated to a wide array of actors across government and civil society to ensure it has maximum impact. Ensuring that future infrastructural, societal and agricultural development in Malaysia is informed by prospective changes in key climate events is critical if we are to successfully adapt to a warmer climate, whilst mitigating the impact of any changes on society and the economy of Malaysia. This project has the capacity to make a significant contribution to that aim.The techniques developed as part of this project could be readily applied in other river basins and countries, such that the impact and longevity of this work could be far broader than the scope currently envisaged. The project partners intend to work with other collaborators to ensure that these broader benefits are realised.

在气候变暖的情况下，降水量预计会增加，因为温暖的空气可以容纳更多的水。在区域一级-感受到影响的区域-由于环流对变暖的反应不确定，对变化模式的了解较少。除了平均降水量的这些变化外，极端降水量的增加可能相当可观，预计每升温1摄氏度，极端降水量将增加约7%。极端事件经常造成最大的破坏，因此了解这些极端事件的频率和强度变化的性质是一个关键问题，因为它们对社会的影响。在马来西亚半岛，年总降水量的大部分是由相对较少的强烈事件产生的。近几十年来，这些极端降水事件一直在增加。它们可能通过洪水造成相当大的破坏，而土地使用的变化又可能加剧这种破坏。马来西亚每年平均洪水损失约为9.15亿令吉。在气候变暖的情况下，随着极端事件的发生频率增加，雨季的变化可能会对马来西亚半岛的水文和社会产生重大影响。在这个项目中，我们将研究导致马来西亚极端降水的动力学特征（例如热带风暴）。我们将研究它们现在的行为和将来可能发生的变化。在这样做的过程中，我们将实现对未来极端降水事件的动态约束的理解。这代表着我们目前对马来西亚极端降水未来变化的理解有了相当大的进步。然后，我们将使用这些信息来运行一个水文模型，以估计未来的流量，洪水量级和洪水重现期的变化。该模型将包括土地使用变化的估计，这也将作为项目的一部分进行开发。通过这一点，马来西亚政府和社会将获得前所未有的详细信息，了解未来极端降水变化的风险和影响，以及河流流量的相关变化。我们还将利用这些信息来评估目前的干预战略，并制定一个考虑到我们对洪水风险的更好理解的洪水管理模型。这一信息将传播给政府和民间社会的广泛行为者，以确保其产生最大影响。确保马来西亚未来的基础设施、社会和农业发展了解关键气候事件的预期变化至关重要，如果我们要成功适应气候变暖，同时减轻任何变化对马来西亚社会和经济的影响。该项目有能力为实现这一目标作出重大贡献，作为该项目一部分开发的技术可随时应用于其他河流流域和国家，从而使这项工作的影响和持久性远远超出目前设想的范围。项目合作伙伴打算与其他合作者合作，以确保实现这些更广泛的利益。