Exeter-NCAR collaborative Development (EXTEND)
埃克塞特-NCAR 合作开发 (EXTEND)
基本信息
- 批准号:NE/W003880/1
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 10.38万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:英国
- 项目类别:Research Grant
- 财政年份:2021
- 资助国家:英国
- 起止时间:2021 至 无数据
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Maintaining global mean temperatures within 1.5C or 2C of pre-industrial levels is a cornerstone of humanity's battle against climate change. Climate model simulations suggest that even limiting change to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels will lead to increased detrimental climate extremes such as heat-waves and extreme precipitation events at a regional, and global scale and these extremes are further exacerbated under 2C temperature targets. The realization by the scientific community of the difficulty of limiting global mean temperatures to within these 1.5 or 2.0C targets has led to increased calls for climate intervention via so called "solar radiation management (SRM)" techniques which aim to increase planetary albedo and induce a cooling that acts to partially offset global warming. SRM is not a new idea, but such an approach is extremely controversial, with many scientific, ecological, moral and philosophical arguments against such proposals. In March 2021, The US National Academy of Sciences recommended in their integrated agenda for SRM research robust, unbiased, multi-model assessments of SAI with a funding stream of $200m, highlighting that "The program should, from the outset, prioritize development of international coordination and co-development of research with other countries". Haywood is an ideal partner for this work. Haywood has authored many cautionary studies including detrimental teleconnection impacts on Amazonian rainfall, termination effect, impacts on Sahelian drought and hurricane frequency of hemispherically asymmetric SRM, and stressed that any practical SRM deployment should only be used to temporally ameliorate the worst impacts of climate change whilst transitioning to a net carbon zero economy.Recent assessments of SRM support a cautionary and objective analysis using models that can represent the detailed mechanisms of SRM. For SAI, they must represent the dynamics and chemistry of the stratosphere such as the Brewer-Dobson circulation, the Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), homogeneous and heterogeneous chemistry relevant to the ozone layer, and the detailed sulphate microphysical evolution such as gas phase oxidation, nucleation, condensation, coagulation, evaporation and gravitational settling. These dynamical, chemical and microphysical processes determine the spatial distribution of stratospheric sulphate aerosol and the associated radiative forcing and are far more complex than those associated with well-mixed carbon dioxide where global concentrations and spectroscopic properties are well known. Only a handful of GCMs within the most advanced GeoMIP G6sulph experiment adequately; the two best models are arguably the UK Met Office Hadley Centre UKESM1 and the USA's National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) CESM2-WACCM This proposal uses the UK's climate model (UKESM1) to EXTEND the large-ensemble approach pioneered by NCAR with CESM2-WACCM. Direct collaboration between the University of Exeter and NCAR promises a dual-model assessment of the various pros, cons, perils and pitfalls of SAI climate intervention utilising two of the most advanced GCMs currently available. The collaboration will not only position the UK scientific community at the forefront of SAI climate intervention, but provide a balanced assessment of the potential of SAI as a climate intervention strategy to policy-makers worldwide.The proposal promises sustainability as matched funding has been promised should EXTEND be funded and there are opportunities to tap into the USA's proposed funding stream of $200m that has been recommended on 25 March 2021, particularly as the USA recognises "The program should, from the outset, prioritize development of international coordination and co-development of research with other countries". Thus sustainability is assured.
将全球平均气温保持在工业化前水平的1.5摄氏度或2摄氏度以内,是人类对抗气候变化的基石。气候模式模拟表明,即使将变化限制在工业化前水平以上1.5℃,也会导致区域和全球范围内热浪和极端降水事件等有害极端气候事件的增加,而在2℃的温度目标下,这些极端气候事件将进一步加剧。科学界认识到将全球平均温度限制在1.5或2.0摄氏度目标内的困难,因此越来越多的人呼吁通过所谓的“太阳辐射管理(SRM)”技术来干预气候,该技术旨在提高行星反照率并诱导冷却,从而部分抵消全球变暖。SRM并不是一个新概念,但这种方法极具争议性,有许多科学、生态、道德和哲学方面的论据反对这种提议。2021年3月,美国国家科学院在其SRM研究综合议程中建议对SAI进行稳健、公正、多模型的评估,并提供2亿美元的资金流,强调“该计划应从一开始就优先考虑发展国际协调和与其他国家共同发展研究”。海伍德是这项工作的理想合作伙伴。Haywood撰写了许多警告性研究,包括对亚马逊降雨的有害远程连接影响,半球不对称SRM的终止效应,对萨赫勒干旱和飓风频率的影响,并强调任何实际的SRM部署都应该只用于暂时改善气候变化的最严重影响,同时向净零碳经济过渡。最近对SRM的评估支持使用能够表示SRM详细机制的模型进行谨慎和客观的分析。对于SAI,它们必须代表平流层的动力学和化学,如Brewer-Dobson环流、准两年一次振荡(QBO)、与臭氧层相关的均质和非均质化学,以及详细的硫酸盐微物理演化,如气相氧化、成核、冷凝、凝聚、蒸发和重力沉降。这些动力学、化学和微物理过程决定了平流层硫酸盐气溶胶的空间分布和相关的辐射强迫,并且远比那些与全球浓度和光谱特性已知的充分混合的二氧化碳相关的过程复杂得多。在最先进的GeoMIP g6硫实验中,只有少数gcm足够;两个最好的模式可以说是英国气象局哈德利中心(UKESM1)和美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)的CESM2-WACCM。该建议使用英国的气候模式(UKESM1)来扩展由NCAR率先使用CESM2-WACCM的大集合方法。埃克塞特大学和NCAR之间的直接合作承诺利用目前可用的两种最先进的gcm,对SAI气候干预的各种优点、缺点、危险和陷阱进行双模型评估。这项合作不仅将使英国科学界处于SAI气候干预的前沿,而且将为全球决策者提供SAI作为气候干预战略潜力的平衡评估。该提案承诺可持续性,因为已经承诺的匹配资金应该得到资助,并且有机会利用美国在2021年3月25日建议的2亿美元的资金流,特别是因为美国认识到“该计划应从一开始就优先考虑国际协调和与其他国家共同开发研究”。因此,可持续性是有保证的。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Supplementary material to "Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth System Models - Part 2: stratospheric and free-tropospheric response"
“三个地球系统模型中对离赤道平流层硫注入的气候响应 - 第 2 部分:平流层和自由对流层响应”的补充材料
- DOI:10.5194/acp-2022-372-supplement
- 发表时间:2022
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Bednarz E
- 通讯作者:Bednarz E
Assessing the consequences of including aerosol absorption in potential Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Climate Intervention Strategies
评估将气溶胶吸收纳入潜在的平流层气溶胶注入气候干预策略的后果
- DOI:10.5194/acp-2021-1032
- 发表时间:2022
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Haywood J
- 通讯作者:Haywood J
Climate Intervention using marine cloud brightening (MCB) compared with stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) in the UKESM1 climate model
UKESM1 气候模型中使用海洋云增亮 (MCB) 与平流层气溶胶注入 (SAI) 进行气候干预的比较
- DOI:10.5194/egusphere-2023-1611
- 发表时间:2023
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Haywood J
- 通讯作者:Haywood J
Australian wildfires cause the largest stratospheric warming since Pinatubo and extends the lifetime of the Antarctic ozone hole.
- DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-15794-3
- 发表时间:2022-08-25
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:4.6
- 作者:Damany-Pearce, Lilly;Johnson, Ben;Wells, Alice;Osborne, Martin;Allan, James;Belcher, Claire;Jones, Andy;Haywood, Jim
- 通讯作者:Haywood, Jim
Comparison of UKESM1 and CESM2 simulations using the same multi-target stratospheric aerosol injection strategy
使用相同的多目标平流层气溶胶注入策略的 UKESM1 和 CESM2 模拟比较
- DOI:10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023
- 发表时间:2023
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:6.3
- 作者:Henry, Matthew;Haywood, Jim;Jones, Andy;Dalvi, Mohit;Wells, Alice;Visioni, Daniele;Bednarz, Ewa M.;MacMartin, Douglas G.;Lee, Walker;Tye, Mari R.
- 通讯作者:Tye, Mari R.
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James Haywood其他文献
James Haywood的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('James Haywood', 18)}}的其他基金
TWISTA (The Wide-ranging Impacts of STratospheric smoke Aerosols)
TWISTA(平流层烟雾气溶胶的广泛影响)
- 批准号:
NE/Y000021/1 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 10.38万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
ADVANCE (Aerosol-cloud-climate interactions derived from Degassing VolcANiC Eruptions)
ADVANCE(源自火山喷发脱气的气溶胶-云-气候相互作用)
- 批准号:
NE/T006897/1 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 10.38万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
[Malaysia] IMpacts of PRecipitation from Extreme StormS - Malaysia (IMPRESS - Malaysia)
[马来西亚] 极端风暴降水的影响 - 马来西亚(IMPRESS - 马来西亚)
- 批准号:
NE/S002707/1 - 财政年份:2019
- 资助金额:
$ 10.38万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
SWAAMI (South West Asian Aerosol Monsoon Interactions)
SWAAMI(西南亚气溶胶季风相互作用)
- 批准号:
NE/L013878/1 - 财政年份:2016
- 资助金额:
$ 10.38万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
CLouds and Aerosol Radiative Impacts and Forcing: Year 2016 (CLARIFY-2016)
云和气溶胶辐射影响和强迫:2016 年 (CLARIFY-2016)
- 批准号:
NE/L013797/1 - 财政年份:2016
- 资助金额:
$ 10.38万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
IMPALA: Improving Model Processes for African cLimAte
IMPALA:改进非洲气候模型流程
- 批准号:
NE/M017265/1 - 财政年份:2015
- 资助金额:
$ 10.38万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
SAMBBA (South American Biomass Burning Analysis)
SAMBBA(南美生物质燃烧分析)
- 批准号:
NE/J010057/1 - 财政年份:2012
- 资助金额:
$ 10.38万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Increasing Resilience to Icelandic Volcanic Eruptions
提高冰岛火山喷发的抵御能力
- 批准号:
NE/I01800X/1 - 财政年份:2010
- 资助金额:
$ 10.38万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
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阵风参数化对NCAR CESM海气耦合模式气候模拟的影响
- 批准号:41575102
- 批准年份:2015
- 资助金额:70.0 万元
- 项目类别:面上项目
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