SEANA -Shipping Emissions in the Arctic and North Atlantic atmosphere

SEANA - 北极和北大西洋大气中的船舶排放

• 批准号: NE/S005587/1
• 负责人: Anna Jones
• 金额: $ 37.11万
• 依托单位: British Antarctic Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS005587%2F1
• 关键词: SEANA; Shipping; Emissions; Arctic; North

Shipping is the largest means of moving freight globally. Ships consume dirty fuels, making them one of the most important sources of anthropogenic aerosol in the marine atmosphere. Aerosols from shipping can affect the climate directly through absorption and scattering of radiation, with an overall cooling effect to the atmosphere. They can also indirectly influence the climate by changing cloud properties, e.g., albedo and lifetime, which further cools the atmosphere.Two key challenges for assessing future climate impact of shipping emission are (i) knowing the status of the present-day aerosol system - as a baseline from which any climate predictions are made and (ii) quantifying the amount of pollutants emitted. Currently little consensus exists on the impact of shipping emissions in the Arctic and North Atlantic Atmosphere (ANAA) primarily due to a lack of observations and insufficient model skills. Recent modelling work suggests that the Arctic aerosol baseline should account for a disparate range of natural sources. Few models are sufficiently comprehensive, and while some models can reproduce aerosol in some Arctic regions, there is evidence that models can produce similar results via different sources and processes. An inability to reflect the aerosol baseline processes can have significant impact on the reliability of future climate projections. Shipping is also undergoing significant changes. In January 2020, a new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) regulation comes into force, which reduces, by more than 80%, the sulphur content in maritime fuel oils. Superimposed on that, recent climate induced changes in Arctic sea ice are opening up new seaways enabling shorter sea passages between key markets. Significant growth in shipping via the North West Passage (NWP) is anticipated in the coming years. Thus, there is a short window of opportunity to define current atmospheric conditions, against which the impact of these changes must be determined.SEANA will take advantage of the above-mentioned opportunity to make multiple atmospheric measurements over multiple platforms to understand the present-day baselines - sources of aerosol particles including the contribution from shipping - and to determine the response of ANAA aerosol to new fuel standards after 2020. Extended measurements will be conducted at two stations adjacent to the NWP enabling the source of particles to be apportioned using receptor modelling approaches. In addition, SEANA will participate in a Korean cruise to the west side of the NWP, and a NERC cruise to the east, to measure both natural and anthropogenic particles and aerosol processes in two contrasting Arctic environments.These new observations will be integrated with recent / ongoing measurements at partner ANAA stations to generate a benchmark dataset on aerosol baseline in ANAA to constrain processes in the UK's leading global aerosol model, ensuring that the model is reproducing the baseline aerosol in the ANAA faithfully. We will then test the models' response to significant reductions in shipping sulphur emissions using observations taken during the transition to low-sulphur fuels in 2020. The revised model, which can reproduce current "baselines" and accurately predict the response of emission changes in the ANAA, will then be used to predict the future impact of shipping on air quality, clouds and radiative forcing under multiple sea-ice and shipping scenarios. SEANA will deliver a major enhancement of UK's national capacity in capturing baseline ANAA aerosol and responses to emission regulations, results of which will inform shipping policy at high-latitudes.

航运是全球最大的货运方式。船舶消耗肮脏的燃料，使其成为海洋大气中人为气溶胶的最重要来源之一。来自船舶的气溶胶可以通过吸收和散射辐射直接影响气候，对大气产生整体冷却效应。它们还可以通过改变云的性质（例如反照率和寿命）间接影响气候，从而进一步冷却大气。评估航运排放对未来气候影响的两个关键挑战是：(i)了解当前气溶胶系统的状况——作为作出任何气候预测的基线；（ii）对污染物排放量进行量化。目前，由于缺乏观测和模型技能不足，关于航运排放对北极和北大西洋大气（ANAA）的影响几乎没有达成共识。最近的建模工作表明，北极气溶胶基线应该考虑到各种不同的自然来源。很少有模式足够全面，虽然有些模式可以重现某些北极地区的气溶胶，但有证据表明，模式可以通过不同的来源和过程产生类似的结果。不能反映气溶胶基线过程会对未来气候预估的可靠性产生重大影响。航运也在发生重大变化。2020年1月，国际海事组织（IMO）的一项新规定生效，该规定将海上燃料油中的硫含量降低了80%以上。在此基础上，最近气候引起的北极海冰变化正在开辟新的航道，使主要市场之间的海上通道变得更短。预计未来几年，西北航道（NWP）的航运将大幅增长。因此，确定当前大气条件的机会窗口很短，必须根据这些条件确定这些变化的影响。SEANA将利用上述机会在多个平台上进行多次大气测量，以了解当前的基线-气溶胶颗粒的来源，包括航运的贡献-并确定ANAA气溶胶对2020年后新燃料标准的反应。将在靠近NWP的两个站点进行扩展测量，使粒子来源能够使用受体建模方法进行分配。此外，SEANA将参加在NWP西侧的韩国巡航和在东部的NERC巡航，以在两个截然不同的北极环境中测量自然和人为颗粒和气溶胶过程。这些新的观测结果将与ANAA合作站点最近/正在进行的测量相结合，生成ANAA气溶胶基线的基准数据集，以约束英国领先的全球气溶胶模型的过程，确保该模型忠实地再现ANAA的基线气溶胶。然后，我们将使用2020年向低硫燃料过渡期间的观测数据，测试模型对船舶硫排放显著减少的响应。修订后的模型可以重现当前的“基线”，并准确预测ANAA中排放变化的响应，然后将用于预测未来多种海冰和航运情景下航运对空气质量、云和辐射强迫的影响。SEANA将大大提高英国在捕获基线ANAA气溶胶和对排放法规的响应方面的国家能力，其结果将为高纬度地区的航运政策提供信息。