A prototype real-time sting jet precursor tool for forecasters

为预报员提供的实时喷射前兆工具原型

• 批准号: NE/S016384/1
• 负责人: Suzanne Gray
• 金额: $ 6.05万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS016384%2F1
• 关键词: prototype; real; time; sting; jet

Sting jets are descending airstreams that can lead to damaging surface winds and gusts in autumn and winter storms. UK impacting sting-jet storms include the Great Storm (1987) and the more recent St Jude's day (2013) and Georgina (2018) windstorms. A convective-instability-based precursor to sting jets has been developed by the project team to identify these storms in datasets unable to represent sting jets due to insufficient spatial resolution. These datasets include reanalyses and global ensemble weather forecast model output. Climatological analysis has shown that this precursor is present in about 30% of all North Atlantic storms, increasing to about 40% for explosively-developing storms. A similar analysis applied to end of 21st century climate-model output using the most extreme (RCP8.5) climate forcing scenario found a 60% increase in explosively-developing storms with the precursor. Furthermore, even in reanalyses, storms with the precursor are the dominant cause of storm-related strong UK winds. In reality these winds will be enhanced by the actual occurrence of sting jets. Early detection of storms with the precursor could give advanced warning of enhanced wind risk and so improve national severe weather warnings and thus climate resilience. The project aim is to develop a prototype real-time precursor tool for use by Met Office forecasters. The existing precursor diagnostic code will be adapted to work routinely on operational global ensemble forecast output to inform forecasters whether or not storms impacting the UK and Europe up to seven days in the future have the precursor. We will work with forecasters to develop suitable graphical outputs and trial the prototype tool during autumn and winter 2019. If the prototype tool is successful then the Met Office anticipate implementing it within their model system such that the sting-jet precursor diagnostic would be available to all their prediction systems.

刺痛喷射是下降的气流，可以导致秋季和冬季风暴中破坏性的地面风和阵风。影响英国的刺流风暴包括大风暴（1987年）和最近的圣裘德日（2013年）和乔治娜（2018年）风暴。该项目团队开发了一种基于对流不稳定性的刺痛喷流前兆，以识别由于空间分辨率不足而无法代表刺痛喷流的数据集中的这些风暴。这些数据集包括再分析和全球集合天气预报模型输出。气候分析表明，这种前兆存在于大约30%的北大西洋风暴中，在爆炸性发展的风暴中增加到大约40%。一个类似的分析应用于21世纪末的世纪气候模式输出，使用最极端的（RCP 8.5）气候强迫情景发现，爆炸性发展的风暴增加了60%的前兆。此外，即使在再分析中，具有前兆的风暴也是与风暴相关的英国强风的主要原因。实际上，这些风会因刺流的实际发生而增强。早期发现具有前兆的风暴可以提前警告风的风险增加，从而改善国家恶劣天气警报，从而提高气候适应能力。该项目的目标是开发一个原型实时前兆工具，供英国气象局预报员使用。现有的前兆诊断代码将进行调整，以定期对业务全球集合预报输出进行工作，以告知预报员未来七天内影响英国和欧洲的风暴是否有前兆。我们将与预报员合作开发合适的图形输出，并在2019年秋季和冬季试用原型工具。如果原型工具是成功的，那么气象局预计将在他们的模型系统中实施它，这样刺式喷气前兆诊断将可用于他们所有的预测系统。

项目成果

Strong surface winds in Storm Eunice . Part 1: storm overview and indications of sting jet activity from observations and model data

尤尼斯风暴中的强表面风。

• DOI: 10.1002/wea.4402
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Weather
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Volonté A

Development of a prototype real-time sting-jet precursor tool for forecasters

为预报员开发实时喷射前兆工具原型

• DOI: 10.1002/wea.3889
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Weather
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Gray S