Building UK climate resilience through bridging the qualitative-quantitative data divide

通过弥合定性定量数据鸿沟来增强英国的气候适应能力

• 批准号: NE/S016961/1
• 负责人: Neil Macdonald
• 金额: $ 6.13万
• 依托单位: University of Liverpool
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS016961%2F1
• 关键词: Building; UK; climate; resilience; through

The UK has witnessed several recent high magnitude floods, droughts, coastal floods and storms, such as winter 2015-16 with estimated costs of between £1.3-1.9 billion (Environment Agency 2018). Current climate resilience is based on experiences garnered over short timescales, with conventional approaches to extreme event understanding often based on relatively short series. As such, the accurate estimation and understanding of high-magnitude low-probability events is challenging. However, historical records can contest and contextualise claims of uniqueness, unparalleled magnitude or severity often associated with contemporary extreme storms, floods, droughts or coastal flooding; addressing the data gap presented by short records. Several databases of collated documentary materials exist, detailing both past mundane and extreme climatic and hydrological events, but also detailing how communities and societies have responded, proving valuable information not routinely used in risk assessment, adaption or resilience planning. This project addresses these challenges, by building an interdisciplinary network of researchers and end-users from across a range of disciplines (including humanities, sciences, engineering and social sciences) to identify key research gaps and build a scoping network that will identify an approach to bridge the qualitative-quantitative data gap in the climate and hydrological sciences. In doing so it addresses four of the six key challenge areas identified by the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment: i) Flooding and coastal change risks to communities, businesses and infrastructure; ii) Risks to health, well-being and productivity from higher temperatures; iii) Risks of water deficits in public water supply, and for agriculture, energy generation and industry, with impacts on freshwater ecology; and iv) Risks to natural capital, including soils, coastal, marine and freshwater ecosystems, and biodiversity. There is clear utility and need for such collaboration, as current flood risk assessments are now legally obliged to consider historical information prior to new development planning permission being granted, as part of the planning process. Most water utility drought plans now assess drought risk over long-term timescales through historically informed analysis. However, there remains a need for greater understanding in how to use and present this information, particularly to help inform societal and community resilience. We will hold three workshops to address this challenge. Each workshop will have a particular focus: i) start-up scoping event exploring existent qualitative datasets (@RGS London); ii) workshop focused on bridging across datasets and potential new approaches (@Liverpool); and, iii) exploring how historical information and data can be of greatest utility to the widest audience for improving future climate services and thus for improving resilience (@Met Office archives). A key outcome of the workshops will be the development of a new protocol for bridging the 'data gap' across quantitative-qualitative datasets.The workshops will also address longer-term questions around the potential value of qualitative sources in the provision of more holistic climate services, while creating an interdisciplinary network of experts able to shape such services.

英国最近经历了几次高强度洪水、干旱、沿海洪水和风暴，例如2015-16年冬季，估计成本在13亿至19亿GB之间(环境署2018年)。目前的气候恢复力是基于在短时间尺度上获得的经验，而理解极端事件的传统方法往往基于相对较短的系列。因此，对高震级、低概率事件的准确估计和理解是具有挑战性的。然而，历史记录可以对独特性、无与伦比的规模或严重性的主张提出质疑，并将其与当代极端风暴、洪水、干旱或沿海洪水联系在一起；弥补短记录带来的数据差距。有几个整理的文件材料数据库，详细记录了过去普通和极端的气候和水文事件，但也详细说明了社区和社会如何作出反应，证明了在风险评估、适应或复原力规划中不经常使用的有价值的信息。该项目通过建立一个跨学科的研究人员和终端用户的跨学科网络(包括人文科学、科学、工程学和社会科学)来应对这些挑战，以确定关键的研究差距，并建立一个范围确定网络，以确定一种方法来弥合气候和水文科学中的定性-定量数据差距。通过这样做，它解决了英国气候变化风险评估确定的六个关键挑战领域中的四个：i)洪水和沿海变化对社区、企业和基础设施的风险；ii)高温对健康、福祉和生产力的风险；iii)公共供水以及农业、能源和工业缺水的风险，对淡水生态的影响；以及iv)对自然资本的风险，包括土壤、沿海、海洋和淡水生态系统以及生物多样性。这种协作显然是有用处和必要性的，因为目前的洪水风险评估现在在法律上有义务在批准新的开发规划许可之前考虑历史信息，作为规划过程的一部分。大多数自来水公司的干旱计划现在通过历史知情的分析来评估长期时间尺度上的干旱风险。然而，仍然需要更多地了解如何使用和呈现这些信息，特别是帮助了解社会和社区的复原力。我们将举办三个讲习班来应对这一挑战。每个讲习班将有一个特别的重点：i)探索现有定性数据集的初创企业范围确定活动(@RGS伦敦)；ii)侧重于跨越数据集和潜在新方法的讲习班(@利物浦)；以及iii)探讨历史信息和数据如何对最广泛的受众最有用，以改进未来的气候服务，从而提高复原力(@气象局档案)。研讨会的一个关键成果将是制定一项新的议定书，以弥合定量和定性数据之间的“数据鸿沟”。研讨会还将解决有关定性来源在提供更全面的气候服务方面的潜在价值的较长期问题，同时创建一个能够塑造这种服务的跨学科专家网络。