Convective-Scale Impacts of Deforestation on Amazonian Rainfall
森林砍伐对亚马逊降雨的对流规模影响
基本信息
- 批准号:NE/V012681/1
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 69.9万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:英国
- 项目类别:Research Grant
- 财政年份:2021
- 资助国家:英国
- 起止时间:2021 至 无数据
- 项目状态:未结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
The Amazon rainforest contains 40% of all remaining tropical rainforest in the world, but has seen rapid deforestation since the 1960s, and as much as 40% of the Brazilian Amazon could be deforested by 2050. Land-use change is an important man-made driver of climate change. We know that deforestation will generally make the atmosphere both warmer and drier, but how these changes will affect rainfall is more complex. Climate models mostly predict that deforestation will reduce rainfall, but the amount varies from 0 to 60% across different studies. Climate models use grid boxes of 10s to 100s km, which are much larger than a typical cloud. While cloud properties can be estimated from the conditions in the grid box, calculating the amount of rainfall is very uncertain, especially in the tropics. One solution is to run a model with much smaller grid boxes, but focusing on a small region, so that clouds and the detailed deforestation patterns found in the Amazon can be represented explicitly. These studies show that the surface patterns alter local weather patterns, increasing rainfall over the deforested patches, which contradicts climate models. However, because these studies focus on smaller regions, we do not know if these local effects are important for the water cycle of the entire Amazon.This project will combine both approaches, using the increased computing power now available to simulate, for the first time, the entire Amazon basin while also explicitly representing clouds. This is a crucial improvement, because past studies have shown that resolving clouds leads to a complete change in model behaviour, greatly improving how tropical rainfall is represented, including climate extremes like flooding and droughts which have the most impact on local populations. We will use these simulations to investigate how increasing deforestation will affect rainfall over the Amazon, and how these changes compare to those caused by global climate change driven by increasing carbon dioxide levels. The project is particularly exciting because it will provide a comprehensive understanding of how deforestation affects rainfall, simulating both changes in regional climate and the local weather patterns within it which directly affect people. Tropical rainfall is a key area of research in climate modelling, because although it is the most important climatic parameter to end users, it is also the most uncertain. For example rainfall drives a number of economic sectors such as agriculture and hydroelectric power, and while deforestation is used to clear land for agriculture, reductions in rainfall could reduce the yield per hectare, negating any economic gain from increasing the agricultural area. Patterns of deforestation can also affect where it rains, which could help planners identify ways to mitigate some of the negative effects on the remaining forest. This project will engage with stakeholders in the region through workshops to improve our physical understanding in a targeted way to address global challenges which have direct relevance to many people.
亚马逊雨林占世界上所有热带雨林的40%,但自20世纪60年代以来,森林砍伐迅速,到2050年,巴西亚马逊雨林的40%可能会被砍伐。土地使用变化是气候变化的一个重要人为驱动因素。我们知道,森林砍伐通常会使大气变得更加温暖和干燥,但这些变化如何影响降雨则更为复杂。气候模型大多预测森林砍伐会减少降雨量,但不同的研究中,这一数字从0到60%不等。气候模型使用10到100公里的网格框,比典型的云大得多。虽然云的性质可以从网格框中的条件估计出来,但计算降雨量是非常不确定的,特别是在热带地区。一种解决方案是运行一个具有更小网格框的模型,但专注于一个小区域,以便可以显式地表示亚马逊地区的云和详细的森林砍伐模式。这些研究表明,地表模式改变了当地的天气模式,增加了森林砍伐区的降雨量,这与气候模型相矛盾。然而,由于这些研究集中在较小的区域,我们不知道这些局部影响对整个亚马逊的水循环是否重要。这个项目将联合收割机结合两种方法,利用现在增加的计算能力,首次模拟整个亚马逊流域,同时也显式地表示云。这是一个至关重要的改进,因为过去的研究表明,解决云导致模型行为的完全改变,大大改善了热带降雨的表现方式,包括对当地人口影响最大的洪水和干旱等极端气候。我们将使用这些模拟来研究森林砍伐的增加将如何影响亚马逊地区的降雨量,以及这些变化如何与二氧化碳水平增加导致的全球气候变化所造成的变化进行比较。该项目特别令人兴奋,因为它将全面了解森林砍伐如何影响降雨,模拟区域气候变化和直接影响人类的当地天气模式。热带降雨量是气候建模研究的一个关键领域,因为尽管它是对最终用户最重要的气候参数,但也是最不确定的。例如,降雨推动了农业和水力发电等一些经济部门的发展,虽然砍伐森林是为了开垦土地用于农业,但降雨量的减少可能会降低每公顷的产量,从而抵消了增加农业面积所带来的任何经济收益。森林砍伐的模式也会影响降雨的地方,这可以帮助规划者找到减轻对剩余森林的一些负面影响的方法。该项目将通过讲习班与该地区的利益攸关方接触,以有针对性的方式提高我们对物理的理解,以应对与许多人直接相关的全球挑战。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(5)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Contrasting impacts of forests on cloud cover based on satellite observations.
- DOI:10.1038/s41467-022-28161-7
- 发表时间:2022-02-03
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:16.6
- 作者:Xu R;Li Y;Teuling AJ;Zhao L;Spracklen DV;Garcia-Carreras L;Meier R;Chen L;Zheng Y;Lin H;Fu B
- 通讯作者:Fu B
Deforestation and changes in rainfall across the Amazon - reducing uncertainty using a continental scale convection permitting domain
亚马逊地区的森林砍伐和降雨量变化 - 使用大陆范围的对流允许域减少不确定性
- DOI:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6107
- 发表时间:2023
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Bassett R
- 通讯作者:Bassett R
Detection of Land-Use Change and Rapid Recovery of Vegetation after Deforestation in the Congo Basin
刚果盆地森林砍伐后土地利用变化和植被快速恢复的检测
- DOI:10.1175/ei-d-22-0020.1
- 发表时间:2023
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:2
- 作者:Adams C
- 通讯作者:Adams C
Assessing the Magnitude of the Amazonian Forest Blowdowns and Post-Disturbance Recovery Using Landsat-8 and Time Series of PlanetScope Satellite Constellation Data
使用 Landsat-8 和 PlanetScope 卫星星座数据的时间序列评估亚马逊森林排污和灾后恢复的程度
- DOI:10.3390/rs15123196
- 发表时间:2023
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:5
- 作者:Ping D
- 通讯作者:Ping D
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David Schultz其他文献
Laboratory Astrophysics White Paper (based on the 2010 NASA Laboratory Astrophysics Workshop in Gatlinberg, Tennessee, 25-28 October 2010)
实验室天体物理学白皮书(基于 2010 年 10 月 25 日至 28 日在田纳西州加特林伯格举行的 2010 年 NASA 实验室天体物理学研讨会)
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2011 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
D. Savin;L. Allamandola;S. Federman;P. Goldsmith;C. Kilbourne;Karin Oberg;David Schultz;S. W. Weaver;H. Ji;B. Remington - 通讯作者:
B. Remington
IceProd 2: A Next Generation Data Analysis Framework for the IceCube Neutrino Observatory
IceProd 2:IceCube 中微子观测站的下一代数据分析框架
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2015 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
David Schultz - 通讯作者:
David Schultz
Measuring disease activity and predicting response to intravenous immunoglobulin in chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy
- DOI:
10.1186/s40364-019-0154-2 - 发表时间:
2019-02-12 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:11.500
- 作者:
Anthony Khoo;Joseph Frasca;David Schultz - 通讯作者:
David Schultz
Techniques for the analysis of trichome Pelagonium xhortorum expressed sequence tags
- DOI:
10.1186/1471-2105-9-s7-p25 - 发表时间:
2008-07-08 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.300
- 作者:
Joseph Morris;Eric Rouchka;David Schultz - 通讯作者:
David Schultz
The Development and Evaluation of a Statewide Training Center for Home Visitors and Supervisors.
全州家庭访客和主管培训中心的开发和评估。
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2019 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.1
- 作者:
David Schultz;Rebecca L. Schacht;Lisa Shanty;L. Dahlquist;R. Barry;Alicia E. Wiprovnick;Elisabeth C Groth;Wendy M. Gaultney;Bronwyn Hunter;C. DiClemente - 通讯作者:
C. DiClemente
David Schultz的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('David Schultz', 18)}}的其他基金
Improving Understanding and Diagnosis of Jet-Stream Turbulence
提高对急流湍流的理解和诊断
- 批准号:
NE/W000997/1 - 财政年份:2022
- 资助金额:
$ 69.9万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Collaborative Research: Data Infrastructure for Open Science in Support of LIGO and IceCube
合作研究:支持 LIGO 和 IceCube 的开放科学数据基础设施
- 批准号:
1841479 - 财政年份:2018
- 资助金额:
$ 69.9万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
The Environments of Convective Storms: Challenging Conventional Wisdom
对流风暴的环境:挑战传统智慧
- 批准号:
NE/N003918/1 - 财政年份:2016
- 资助金额:
$ 69.9万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
SBIR RAPID: Filovirus Ebola Simulants to help improve the effectiveness and reliability of personal protective equipment for protection from Ebola exposure.
SBIR RAPID:丝状病毒埃博拉模拟物有助于提高个人防护设备的有效性和可靠性,以防止接触埃博拉病毒。
- 批准号:
1506898 - 财政年份:2015
- 资助金额:
$ 69.9万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
SBIR Phase I: High Throughput Silver Nanowire Manufacturing
SBIR 第一阶段:高通量银纳米线制造
- 批准号:
1248916 - 财政年份:2013
- 资助金额:
$ 69.9万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
PRESTO: PREcipitation STructures over Orography.
PRESTO:地形上的降水结构。
- 批准号:
NE/I026545/1 - 财政年份:2012
- 资助金额:
$ 69.9万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
SBIR(RAPID):Super-Oleophilic Absorbent for Efficient Oil Contamination Clean-up
SBIR(RAPID):超亲油吸收剂,可有效清除油污
- 批准号:
1049529 - 财政年份:2010
- 资助金额:
$ 69.9万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
STTR Phase II: Abrasion Resistant Ultrahydrophobic Coatings for Corrosion, Erosion and Wear Resistance
STTR 第二阶段:耐磨超疏水涂层,具有耐腐蚀、冲蚀和耐磨性
- 批准号:
0924684 - 财政年份:2009
- 资助金额:
$ 69.9万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
SBIR Phase I: Nanomaterial-Based Room Temperature Conductive Paste
SBIR第一期:纳米材料基室温导电浆料
- 批准号:
0839504 - 财政年份:2009
- 资助金额:
$ 69.9万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
High-throughput Biological-assays Via Single Molecule Labeling and Detection
通过单分子标记和检测进行高通量生物测定
- 批准号:
9876651 - 财政年份:1999
- 资助金额:
$ 69.9万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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