Climate and carbon dioxide during the end-Permian hyperthermal biosphere crisis

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Predictions of future climate change are highly uncertain and unconstrained, with projected global average temperatures not seen for many millions of years . Past hyperthermal events, times of excessive global warming, can provide some answers. We propose to explore the end-Permian hyperthermal event which drove the largest mass extinction in Earth's history, 252 million years ago. Previous investigation has focused on the response and impact on the ocean, but less is known about consequences on land. Continental basins saw extensive accumulation of 'red beds', to an extent not seen at any other time, and temperatures rose as much as 15 degrees C above latest Permian levels. We aim to model climates sufficient to generate these terrestrial temperatures and the tropical 'dead zone' and thereby determine the amount of carbon dioxide injected into the atmosphere, as current estimates vary wildly from 856-2568 parts per million at the time of maximum crisis. Narrowing down these figures to a realistic, and testable level for the ancient crisis will allow us to tune the models for future climate change more accurately.