Exploring AMOC controls on the North Atlantic carbon sink using novel inverse and data-constrained models (EXPLANATIONS)

使用新颖的逆向模型和数据约束模型探索 AMOC 对北大西洋碳汇的控制（解释）

• 批准号: NE/Y005260/1
• 负责人: Neill Mackay
• 金额: $ 66.27万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FY005260%2F1
• 关键词: Exploring; AMOC; controls; North; Atlantic

The global ocean currently absorbs a quarter of the carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere due to human activities, slowing the rate of climate change. A disproportionate amount of this anthropogenic carbon (Canth) accumulates in the North Atlantic. A component of the global ocean circulation known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a key role in how the ocean carbon uptake (the carbon 'sink') varies due to interactions between physics, biology, and chemistry. However, disagreement among model simulations of the system limits confidence in climate projections. There is also uncertainty in the relative contributions to net ocean carbon uptake of anthropogenic carbon and 'natural' carbon that already existed in the preindustrial environment, and how these contributions may change in the future. In recent years, instruments moored in the North Atlantic have made the first direct continuous observations of the AMOC in programmes call 'RAPID' and 'OSNAP', providing new information about the regional circulation. Furthermore, observations of carbon in the ocean interior allow us to determine how carbon is accumulating in the basin. The combination of the availability of observational data and a climatically important regional circulation make the North Atlantic an ideal place to study the underlying mechanisms controlling ocean carbon uptake transport and storage, to help us improve our models.In this project, we will employ cutting-edge methods to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean CO2 sink and interior carbon reservoir. First, we will use a novel inverse method, which combines observations with simple physical principles, to estimate the uptake, transport, and storage of carbon, using a combination of different observational datasets, including those from the RAPID and OSNAP programmes. Second, we will use a model that simulates the ocean physical, chemical, and biological systems, while incorporating available observations in a way that maximises the realism of the simulation, to explore the role of the circulation in the North Atlantic carbon sink. For the first time, we will incorporate OSNAP and RAPID observations into this model, named 'ECCO-Darwin', and separate natural and anthropogenic contributions to the region's changing carbon inventory. Third, we will use the state-of-the-art ocean ecosystem model 'NEMO-PlankTOM' to estimate the impacts of rapid changes in the ocean circulation on the carbon sink, and to determine the strength of any interaction between the carbon sink and the ocean's biological ecosystem. Finally, we will compare outputs from climate models with our results to identify common features in those models that best represent North Atlantic carbon uptake, transport, and storage, as a means of improving our projections of future climate change. In summary, these combined methods will provide an improved understanding of how the AMOC and North Atlantic Ocean are sequestering anthropogenic CO2.

全球海洋目前吸收了人类活动释放到大气中的二氧化碳（CO2）的四分之一，减缓了气候变化的速度。不成比例的人为碳（坎斯）积累在北大西洋。被称为大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）的全球海洋环流的一个组成部分在海洋碳吸收（碳“汇”）如何由于物理，生物和化学之间的相互作用而变化方面起着关键作用。然而，该系统的模型模拟之间的分歧限制了对气候预测的信心。在工业化前环境中已经存在的人为碳和“自然”碳对海洋碳净吸收的相对贡献以及这些贡献在未来可能如何变化方面也存在不确定性。近年来，停泊在北大西洋的仪器在名为“RAPID”和“OSNAP”的方案中首次对AMOC进行了直接连续观测，提供了有关区域环流的新信息。此外，对海洋内部碳的观测使我们能够确定碳是如何在盆地中积累的。观测数据的可用性和气候上重要的区域环流相结合，使北大西洋成为研究控制海洋碳吸收运输和储存的潜在机制的理想场所，以帮助我们改进我们的模型。在这个项目中，我们将采用先进的方法来模拟北大西洋CO2汇和内部碳库。首先，我们将使用一种新的逆方法，该方法将观测与简单的物理原理相结合，使用不同观测数据集（包括RAPID和OSNAP计划的数据集）的组合来估计碳的吸收、运输和储存。第二，我们将使用一个模型，模拟海洋的物理，化学和生物系统，同时结合现有的观测结果，最大限度地提高模拟的现实主义，探索循环在北大西洋碳汇的作用。我们将首次将OSNAP和RAPID观测纳入这个名为“ECCO-Darwin”的模型，并将自然和人为对该地区不断变化的碳清单的贡献分开。第三，我们将使用最先进的海洋生态系统模型“NEMO-PlankTOM”来估计海洋环流的快速变化对碳汇的影响，并确定碳汇和海洋生物生态系统之间相互作用的强度。最后，我们将比较气候模型的输出与我们的结果，以确定最能代表北大西洋碳吸收，运输和储存的模型中的共同特征，作为改善我们对未来气候变化预测的一种手段。总之，这些结合的方法将提供一个更好的了解AMOC和北大西洋是如何螯合人为CO2。