ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT EFFECTS ON DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

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In this proposed project continuation multi-level and longitudinal household data from a large national probability sample of over 4500 rural households in India covering the period 1968-1981, merged with supplementary area-specific data on programs and environmental characteristics, will be used to examine comprehensively the effects of economic development and program interventions on population change. The multi-level and longitudinal aspects of the data will be exploited to i) identify the mechanisms by which economic growth propelled by agricultural technological change and program interventions alter fertility and mortality and ii) to assess the ability of the estimates to explain the evolution of the population over time and across areas. New survey data will be collected which will extend the household panel to 1999 and provide new information on household division, household formation and intrafamily economic ties. The 30-year survey will document a period of time in India which conforms closely to a natural experiment in which the source of economic development, the introduction and improvement of high-yielding seed varieties, exogenously affected the wealth and incomes, the rates of return to schooling and wages and prices in areas of India in which the new seeds could be grown. The data will be used to study the impact of economic development on fertility and "unwanted births" using dynamic models, with particular attention to (i) the effects of the changing returns to schooling, (ii) the role and diffusion of contraceptive information and costs, and (iii) the effects of the physical environment and how it is publicly managed. A major project focus will also be on quantifying the effects of economic change on gender differences in schooling, mortality, and influence on household decisions, and on household structure and organization that incorporate and extend new models of household decision-making. The results of the project will provide quantitative evidence on the relative importance of economic growth, technological change and increased investments in human resource programs in affecting demographic change.