ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT EFFECTS ON DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

经济发展对人口变化的影响

• 批准号: 6627364
• 负责人: MARK R ROSENZWEIG
• 金额: $ 17.11万
• 依托单位: HARVARD UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-09-01 至 2005-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6627364
• 关键词: India; behavioral /social science research tag; continuing education; data collection methodology /evaluation; decision making; employment /unemployment; family structure /dynamics; fertility; gender difference; household; human data; human mortality; human population growth; human population study; model design /development; social change; social model; socioeconomics; socioenvironment

In this proposed project continuation multi-level and longitudinal household data from a large national probability sample of over 4500 rural households in India covering the period 1968-1981, merged with supplementary area-specific data on programs and environmental characteristics, will be used to examine comprehensively the effects of economic development and program interventions on population change. The multi-level and longitudinal aspects of the data will be exploited to i) identify the mechanisms by which economic growth propelled by agricultural technological change and program interventions alter fertility and mortality and ii) to assess the ability of the estimates to explain the evolution of the population over time and across areas. New survey data will be collected which will extend the household panel to 1999 and provide new information on household division, household formation and intrafamily economic ties. The 30-year survey will document a period of time in India which conforms closely to a natural experiment in which the source of economic development, the introduction and improvement of high-yielding seed varieties, exogenously affected the wealth and incomes, the rates of return to schooling and wages and prices in areas of India in which the new seeds could be grown. The data will be used to study the impact of economic development on fertility and "unwanted births" using dynamic models, with particular attention to (i) the effects of the changing returns to schooling, (ii) the role and diffusion of contraceptive information and costs, and (iii) the effects of the physical environment and how it is publicly managed. A major project focus will also be on quantifying the effects of economic change on gender differences in schooling, mortality, and influence on household decisions, and on household structure and organization that incorporate and extend new models of household decision-making. The results of the project will provide quantitative evidence on the relative importance of economic growth, technological change and increased investments in human resource programs in affecting demographic change.

在这个拟议的项目中，延续了多层次和纵向 来自超过4500个国家概率样本的家庭数据 涵盖1968-1981年期间的印度农村家庭，与 关于方案和环境的补充地区数据 特征，将被用来全面检查 经济发展和人口变化方案干预。 将利用数据的多层次和纵向方面 一)确定推动经济增长的机制： 农业技术变革和项目干预改变 生育率和死亡率以及二)评估估计数的能力 以解释人口随时间和跨地区的演变。 将收集新的调查数据，这将扩大家庭小组 至1999年，并提供关于家庭划分、家庭 形成和家庭内部的经济联系。这项长达30年的调查将 记录在印度的一段时间，这段时间与自然的 其中实验经济发展的源泉，介绍 和高产种子品种的改良，外源影响 财富和收入，就学回报率和工资 印度可以种植新种子的地区的价格。数据 将用于研究经济发展对生育率的影响 以及使用动态模型的“意外分娩”，并特别注意 (I)变化的就学回报的影响；。(Ii)角色和 传播避孕信息和费用，以及(3)影响 物理环境以及如何对其进行公共管理。一位少校 项目重点还将放在量化经济变化的影响上 关于受教育程度、死亡率及其影响的性别差异 家庭决策以及关于家庭结构和组织的 纳入和推广家庭决策的新模式。这个 项目的结果将提供定量的证据 经济增长、技术变革和经济增长的相对重要性 增加对人力资源计划的投资，影响 人口结构的变化。