ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT EFFECTS ON DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

经济发展对人口变化的影响

• 批准号: 6684729
• 负责人: MARK R ROSENZWEIG
• 金额: $ 15.83万
• 依托单位: HARVARD UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-09-01 至 2003-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6684729
• 关键词: India; behavioral /social science research tag; continuing education; data collection methodology /evaluation; decision making; employment /unemployment; family structure /dynamics; fertility; gender difference; household; human data; human mortality; human population growth; human population study; model design /development; social change; social model; socioeconomics; socioenvironment

In this proposed project continuation multi-level and longitudinal household data from a large national probability sample of over 4500 rural households in India covering the period 1968-1981, merged with supplementary area-specific data on programs and environmental characteristics, will be used to examine comprehensively the effects of economic development and program interventions on population change. The multi-level and longitudinal aspects of the data will be exploited to i) identify the mechanisms by which economic growth propelled by agricultural technological change and program interventions alter fertility and mortality and ii) to assess the ability of the estimates to explain the evolution of the population over time and across areas. New survey data will be collected which will extend the household panel to 1999 and provide new information on household division, household formation and intrafamily economic ties. The 30-year survey will document a period of time in India which conforms closely to a natural experiment in which the source of economic development, the introduction and improvement of high-yielding seed varieties, exogenously affected the wealth and incomes, the rates of return to schooling and wages and prices in areas of India in which the new seeds could be grown. The data will be used to study the impact of economic development on fertility and "unwanted births" using dynamic models, with particular attention to (i) the effects of the changing returns to schooling, (ii) the role and diffusion of contraceptive information and costs, and (iii) the effects of the physical environment and how it is publicly managed. A major project focus will also be on quantifying the effects of economic change on gender differences in schooling, mortality, and influence on household decisions, and on household structure and organization that incorporate and extend new models of household decision-making. The results of the project will provide quantitative evidence on the relative importance of economic growth, technological change and increased investments in human resource programs in affecting demographic change.

在此建议项目延续多层次和纵向 家庭数据来自超过4500个国家的大概率样本 1968-1981年期间印度农村家庭，与 关于方案和环境的补充地区具体数据 特征，将被用来全面审查的影响， 经济发展和对人口变化的方案干预。 将利用数据的多层次和纵向方面 （一）确定经济增长的机制， 农业技术变革和项目干预改变了 （二）评估估计数的能力 来解释人口随时间和地区的演变。 将收集新的调查数据， 1999年至1999年的人口普查，并提供关于住户划分、住户 形成和家庭内部的经济联系。30年的调查将 记录了印度的一段时间， 经济发展源泉的实验，介绍 和改良高产种子品种， 财富和收入，教育回报率和工资， 在印度，新种子可以种植的地区的价格。数据 将用于研究经济发展对生育率的影响 和“意外生育”，特别注意 (i)教育回报率变化的影响;（二）教育的作用和 传播避孕信息和费用，以及（iii）影响 物理环境及其公共管理方式。一个主要 项目重点还将是量化经济变化的影响 教育、死亡率和对儿童的影响方面的性别差异 家庭结构和组织， 纳入和推广新的家庭决策模式。的 该项目的结果将提供关于 经济增长、技术变革和 增加对人力资源方案的投资， 人口变化。