POPULATION GROWTH, ECONOMIC CHANGE & FOREST DEGRADATION

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In this proposed project we will develop and use an integrated theoretical framework using a newly assembled demographic-economic- environmental data set to undertake a comprehensive analysis of the interrelations among population growth, economic development, and land use patterns in India. In articular, we will estimate the effects of population growth and the large agricultural productivity increases induced by the importation of new seed varieties associated with the "green revolution" on the changes in forest area and forest density in India, as mediated by changes in prices of labor and land nd governmental policies, over the period 1970 through 1982. In addition, feedback effects of changes n the environment, as measured by temperature shifts and forested area, on land values and on fertility will also be estimated. The data base for the project integrates micro information on demographic and economic outcomes from a newly-available multi-level and longitudinal household data set from a large national probability sample of over 4000 rural households residing in 250 villages in India (rural households represented 82% of all households in India as of 1961 and 76% in 1981) covering the period 968-1981, area-specific information on programs, prices, land use (including forest area and density), temperature, and rainfall, based on weather-station records, governmental surveys and satellite information. We will exploit the multi-level and longitudinal aspects of the data not only to identify the mechanisms by which population, economic growth propelled by technical change, and program interventions alter land use patterns but to assess the ability of the estimates to explain the evolution of these outcomes over time and across areas. The data will also be used to quantify the effects of educations in forest area and temperature changes potentially induced by global warming on agricultural productivity and on fertility rates, to test for the existence and potential effects of population externally associated with public land use regulation and incomplete factor markets, and to identify potential interventions that may affect the environmental impact of population growth on forest degradation. The results of the project will provide quantitative evidence on the relative importance of economic growth nd increased population size in affecting environmental change.