EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

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In this project we use newly-available multi-level and longitudinal household data from a large national probability sample of over 4000 rural households in India covering the period 1968-1981, merged with supplementary area-specific data, to examine comprehensively the effects of economic development and program interventions on demographic and social change. We will exploit the multi-level and longitudinal aspects of the data to identify the mechanisms by which economic growth and program interventions alter a variety of related demographic outcomes and to assess the ability of the estimates to explain the evolution of these outcomes over time and across areas. The survey documents a period of time in India which conforms closely to a natural experiment in which the source of economic development, the introduction and improvement of high- yielding seed varieties, exogenously affected the wealth and incomes, the rates of return to schooling and wages and prices in areas of India in which the new seeds could be grown. The data will be used to quantify and compare across districts in India differentially exposed to the opportunities presented by the new technologies the level and change in rural fertility, mortality, labor force participation, schooling, and household structure. Based on econometric analyses of dynamic models, the mechanisms by which economic development affects these demographic outcomes, such as by changing rates of return to schooling or altering the productive values of children's and women's time, will also be identified. The data will also be used to measure the impact of education, health and family planning programs, net of changes in economic opportunities, on fertility, contraceptive efficacy, mortality and schooling using methods that will take into account the non-random distribution of the programs. The results of the project will provide quantitative evidence on the relative importance of economic growth and increased investments in human resource programs in affecting demographic change.