POPULATION GROWTH, ECONOMIC CHANGE & FOREST DEGRADATION

在这个项目中，我们将开发和使用一个集成的 理论框架使用新组装的人口-经济- 环境数据集进行全面分析， 人口增长、经济发展和土地之间的相互关系 在印度使用模式。具体而言，我们将估计 人口增长和农业生产力大幅提高 由于进口了新的种子品种， “绿色革命”对森林面积和森林密度变化的影响 印度，受劳动力和土地价格变化和政府调节 从1970年到1982年的政策。此外，反馈 环境变化的影响，通过温度变化来衡量 和森林面积，土地价值和肥力也将受到影响。 估算该项目的数据库整合了以下方面的微观信息： 人口和经济成果，从一个新的可用的多层次和 全国大概率抽样纵向住户数据集 印度250个村庄的4000多户农村家庭（农村 截至1961年，印度家庭占印度所有家庭的82%， （1981年）所涉时期为968-1981年， 方案、价格、土地使用（包括森林面积和密度）， 温度和降雨量，根据气象站的记录，政府 调查和卫星信息。我们将利用多层次和 数据的纵向方面，不仅要确定机制， 技术变革推动的人口和经济增长， 项目干预改变了土地利用模式， 解释这些结果随时间演变的估计数，以及 在不同的地区。这些数据还将用于量化 森林地区的教育和温度变化可能引起的 全球变暖对农业生产力和生育率的影响， 人口外部存在和潜在影响的检验 与公共土地使用管制和不完善的要素市场有关， 并确定可能影响环境的潜在干预措施， 人口增长对森林退化的影响。的结果 该项目将提供定量证据，说明 经济增长和人口规模的增加对环境的影响 变化

In this proposed project we will develop and use an integrated theoretical framework using a newly assembled demographic-economic- environmental data set to undertake a comprehensive analysis of the interrelations among population growth, economic development, and land use patterns in India. In articular, we will estimate the effects of population growth and the large agricultural productivity increases induced by the importation of new seed varieties associated with the "green revolution" on the changes in forest area and forest density in India, as mediated by changes in prices of labor and land nd governmental policies, over the period 1970 through 1982. In addition, feedback effects of changes n the environment, as measured by temperature shifts and forested area, on land values and on fertility will also be estimated. The data base for the project integrates micro information on demographic and economic outcomes from a newly-available multi-level and longitudinal household data set from a large national probability sample of over 4000 rural households residing in 250 villages in India (rural households represented 82% of all households in India as of 1961 and 76% in 1981) covering the period 968-1981, area-specific information on programs, prices, land use (including forest area and density), temperature, and rainfall, based on weather-station records, governmental surveys and satellite information. We will exploit the multi-level and longitudinal aspects of the data not only to identify the mechanisms by which population, economic growth propelled by technical change, and program interventions alter land use patterns but to assess the ability of the estimates to explain the evolution of these outcomes over time and across areas. The data will also be used to quantify the effects of educations in forest area and temperature changes potentially induced by global warming on agricultural productivity and on fertility rates, to test for the existence and potential effects of population externally associated with public land use regulation and incomplete factor markets, and to identify potential interventions that may affect the environmental impact of population growth on forest degradation. The results of the project will provide quantitative evidence on the relative importance of economic growth nd increased population size in affecting environmental change.