Latent Factor Representations of Dynamic Networks in Cyber-Security

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Statistical and data science techniques have an important role to play in the next generation of cyber-security defences. Inside a typical enterprise computer network, a number of high-volume data sources are available which could enable the discovery and prevention of cyber-attacks and other nefarious network activity. To improve the security of computer networks in government, industry and academia, both in the UK and worldwide, there is a requirement for developing statistical, probability model-based techniques for identifying the most subtle intrusion attempts using these data sources. The advantage of statistical approaches is their ability to learn, from historical data, complex patterns of normal computer and network behaviour, so that anomalies can be detected which would not stand out otherwise.The aim of this project is to build strong statistical models for understanding and predicting the existence of edges indicating pairs of internet protocol addresses which connect with one another, so that unusual new connections can be identified and calibrated. This first requires the use of any open sources of information available for internet domain ranges, country-to-country connections, and protocols, ports and services typically favoured by different addresses. Second, we would like to use statistical inference, based on historical connections which have been observed, to understand some of the latent underlying structure of the internet; in contrast, these are aspects which cannot be measured but will determine the propensity for particular edges to be formed.Complex, flexible latent factor models can be most effectively constructed through Bayesian nonparametrics, and there is a growing literature of the application of these techniques to dynamic network problems to build upon. However, Bayesian nonparametric methods are computationally burdensome, and will need adaptation to be appropriately applied to the high dimension and frequency of real cyber-security data collected within an enterprise computer network. Part of this process will be effective screening and triage of these high data volumes, identify interesting or informative sections or partitions of network traffic data.As a research topic, statistical cyber-security lies within the EPSRC growth area of Statistics and Applied Probability, and relates to the themes of Global Uncertainties and Digital Economy. The potential impact of research to improve cyber-security spans across strengthening both national security and the position of the UK as a digital economy, through to the societal impact of safeguarding civil liberties, as having access to the internet is increasingly considered to be an emerging human right.