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Econometric Study of Schooling, Information, and Smoking

学校教育、信息和吸烟的计量经济学研究

基本信息

批准号：
7522462
负责人：
Donald S. Kenkel
金额：
$ 20.15万
依托单位：
CORNELL UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2006
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2006-05-10 至 2010-03-31
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This is a supplemental application to significantly expand the scope our currently funded study of schooling and smoking. In the currently funded parent grant, we are investigating the relationship between schooling and smoking as a case study to shed light on more general questions about the links between schooling and health. One causal pathway is through health information, where general schooling helps consumers respond to new information about the health consequences of behaviors such as smoking. Alternatively, the association between schooling and health may not be causal, but may instead reflect hard-to- observe differences between people with different levels of schooling. In the parent grant's Study 2 we are using the econometric method of instrumental variables (IV) to identify the causal impact of schooling on smoking. The overarching goal of this supplemental/revision application is to enhance the econometric analysis in the parent grant's Study 2. The goal is motivated by recent simulation studies that show that failing to account for inherent nonlinearity in regression contexts involving endogeneity can result in substantially biased estimates of causal effects. To meet its goal, the work proposed has three specific aims. Specific Aim 1 is to develop a robust conditional mean regression model of the duration of smoking among former smokers to include ordinal endogenous schooling dummies. This model will extend the econometric methods being used in the currently funded grant in several ways. We will implement this estimator in the Stata 10 programming language and disseminate the new software. Specific Aim 2 is to further develop the model of the duration of smoking among ever smokers. In data on ever smokers, it is necessary to correct for bias due to right censoring of observed durations. About half of ever smokers are former smokers, and the other half are current smokers who by definition continue to smoke beyond the time of the interview so their durations are right censored. We will extend the model and method developed for Specific Aim 1 to account for potential bias due to the presence of right-censored duration observations in the analysis sample (the current smokers). Here, as under Specific Aim 1, corresponding Stata 10 software will be produced and made publicly available. Specific Aim 3 is to evaluate the performance of the new estimators to be developed under Specific Aims 1 and 2, using simulated and real data. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The proposed study focuses on the link between schooling and smoking. Smoking contributes to more than 400,000 deaths annually in the US, and has been called the leading preventable cause of death. If we find more evidence of a causal link between schooling and smoking, we will strengthen the case that investments in schooling also improve public health.

描述（由申请人提供）：这是一个补充申请，以显着扩大我们目前资助的学校教育和吸烟研究的范围。在目前资助的家长补助金中，我们正在调查上学和吸烟之间的关系，作为一个案例研究，以阐明关于上学和健康之间联系的更一般性问题。一个因果途径是通过健康信息，其中一般学校教育帮助消费者对有关吸烟等行为的健康后果的新信息做出反应。或者，教育和健康之间的联系可能不是因果关系，而是反映了不同教育水平的人之间难以观察的差异。在父母补助金的研究2中，我们使用工具变量（IV）的计量经济学方法来确定学校教育对吸烟的因果影响。此补充/修订应用程序的首要目标是加强在父母补助金的研究2中的计量经济学分析。这一目标的动机是最近的模拟研究表明，未能考虑到固有的非线性回归环境中涉及endoeconomy可能会导致实质上有偏见的估计因果关系的影响。为了实现这一目标，拟议的工作有三个具体目标。具体目标1是开发一个强大的条件均值回归模型的吸烟持续时间之间的前吸烟者，包括顺序内源性的学校假人。这一模式将以几种方式扩展目前资助赠款所使用的计量经济学方法。我们将在Stata 10编程语言中实现该估计器，并分发新软件。具体目标2是进一步开发曾经吸烟者的吸烟持续时间模型。在关于曾经吸烟者的数据中，有必要纠正由于观察持续时间的正确删失而导致的偏倚。大约一半的吸烟者是以前的吸烟者，另一半是现在的吸烟者，根据定义，他们在采访结束后继续吸烟，所以他们的持续时间是正确的。我们将扩展为特定目标1开发的模型和方法，以解释由于分析样本（当前吸烟者）中存在右删失持续时间观察结果而导致的潜在偏倚。在这方面，与具体目标1一样，将制作相应的Stata 10软件并向公众提供。具体目标3是使用模拟数据和真实的数据，评价在具体目标1和2下开发的新估计量的性能。公共卫生相关性：拟议的研究重点是学校教育和吸烟之间的联系。在美国，吸烟每年导致40多万人死亡，并被称为主要的可预防死亡原因。如果我们能找到更多的证据证明上学和吸烟之间存在因果关系，我们就能更有力地证明，对上学的投资也能改善公众健康。