Econometric Study of Schooling, Information, and Smoking

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We propose to investigate the relationship between schooling and smoking behaviors as a case study to shed light on more general questions about the links between schooling and health. One causal pathway is through health information, where general schooling helps consumers respond to new information about the health consequences of behaviors such as smoking. Alternatively, the association between schooling and health may not be causal, but may instead reflect hard-to-observe differences between people with different levels of schooling. In Study 1 we econometrically analyze data on individual life-course smoking histories that span the period from the 1920s through the end of the 20th century. Study 1 will examine Hypothesis 1: The link between schooling and smoking initiation in multiple birth cohorts depends on the smoking health information available during adolescence and early adulthood. Major innovations will be to examine Hypothesis 2: The link between schooling and smoking cessation in multiple birth cohorts depends on the smoking health information available later in the life course when cessation decisions are made; and Hypothesis 3: The relationship between schooling and smoking cessation will be the strongest in the cohorts who initiated smoking before the spread of smoking health information. Study 2 will use the instrumental variables (IV) method to identify the causal impact of schooling on smoking initiation and cessation. There is substantial variation across states and over time in educational policies that provides natural or quasi-experimental variation in completed schooling outcomes. The state-level policy variables will be used as IVs for schooling to test Hypothesis 4: Completed schooling has a causal impact to reduce smoking initiation and increase smoking cessation. Our application of the IV method carefully considers whether the proposed IVs (a) can be excluded as direct determinants of the smoking outcomes; and (b) have sufficient explanatory power as determinants of schooling.