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An Econometric Analysis of Cigarette Price Search and Tax Incidence

卷烟价格搜索和税收发生率的计量经济学分析

基本信息

批准号：
7693801
负责人：
Donald S. Kenkel
金额：
$ 13.86万
依托单位：
CORNELL UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2008
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2008-09-26 至 2011-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Cigarette taxation is a well-established part of tobacco control policy. To further improve our understanding of the consequences of cigarette taxes, the broad objective of the proposed research is to conduct an exploratory economic analysis of cigarette price search. The proposed project will use national data from the 2003 Tobacco Use Special Cessation Supplement to the Consumer Population Survey. The 2003 TUSCS contains novel data on price search behavior including: the price paid for cigarettes; whether smokers usually buy packs or cartons of cigarettes; whether their last cigarette purchase was in some other state than their state of residence; and whether their last cigarette purchase was over the internet or some other means. To explore border crossing in more depth, we also propose to analyze data from the New York State Adult Tobacco Survey. Similar to the TUSCS, the NYS-ATS contains measures of border crossing and the prices paid for cigarettes. New York is a good "laboratory" to study border crossing because it includes New York City, which has a high local cigarette tax, and a number of Native American Reservations, which are important sources of low price cigarettes for many New Yorkers. Specific Aim 1 is to estimate econometric models of the impact of border crossing on the price paid for cigarettes. We will use distance to the border as the key instrumental variable to identify an endogenous treatment effect model and an endogenous switching regressions model of the impact of border crossing on prices. Border crossing is an important form of price search that might have a major impact on the price paid for cigarettes. Estimating the magnitude of its causal impact is important in its own right and will shed light on broader questions about the role consumer search behavior plays in consumer responses to tobacco control policies. Specific Aim 2 is to use the econometric results to conduct a novel analysis of how the burden of cigarette taxes is distributed across different groups of smokers. The analysis will extend the standard analysis of tax incidence across income groups to explore how price search changes tax incidence. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Cigarette taxes are often seen as way to prevent smoking, the leading preventable cause of death in the U.S. The proposed project will explore actions consumers take to find lower price cigarettes even in the face of high taxes. By improving our understanding of this behavior, the project will contribute to more effective tobacco control policies.

描述(由申请人提供)：烟草税是烟草控制政策中公认的一部分。为了进一步加深我们对卷烟税收后果的理解，本研究的总体目标是对卷烟价格搜索进行探索性的经济分析。拟议的项目将使用2003年《消费者人口调查烟草使用特别戒烟补充资料》中的国家数据。2003年TUSCS包含了关于价格搜索行为的新数据，包括：香烟的支付价格；吸烟者通常购买香烟包还是纸盒；他们最后一次购买香烟是否在他们居住的州以外的其他州；以及他们最后一次购买香烟是通过互联网还是通过其他方式。为了更深入地探索边境口岸，我们还建议分析纽约州成人烟草调查的数据。与TUSCS类似，NYS-ATS包含边境口岸的衡量标准和卷烟价格。纽约是研究边境口岸的一个很好的“实验室”，因为它包括纽约市，它有很高的当地卷烟税，以及一些美洲原住民保留地，对许多纽约人来说，这是廉价香烟的重要来源。具体目标1是估计过境对香烟价格的影响的计量经济模型。我们将以边境距离作为关键的工具变量，识别跨境对价格影响的内生处理效应模型和内生转换回归模型。越境是一种重要的价格搜索形式，可能会对香烟的价格产生重大影响。估计其因果影响的大小本身就很重要，并将揭示更广泛的问题，即消费者搜索行为在消费者对烟草控制政策的反应中所扮演的角色。具体目标2是利用计量经济学结果对香烟税负担如何在不同吸烟者群体之间分配进行新的分析。这项分析将扩展对不同收入群体的税收发生率的标准分析，以探索价格搜索如何改变税收发生率。与公共健康相关：香烟税通常被视为防止吸烟的方法，吸烟是美国主要的可预防死亡原因。拟议中的项目将探索消费者即使面对高税收也要采取行动，以找到价格更低的香烟。通过提高我们对这一行为的理解，该项目将有助于制定更有效的烟草控制政策。