Are Alcohol Tax Hikes Fully Passed Through to Prices?

描述(申请人提供)：阿拉斯加州即将：将麦芽饮料的税收从每加仑0.35美元提高到1.07美元；将葡萄酒的税收从每加仑0.85美元提高到2.50美元；将烈性酒的税收从每加仑5.60美元提高到12.50美元。法律修订的净效果是，啤酒、葡萄酒或烈性酒的标准饮品将按每种标准饮品约10美分的价格征税。拟议的创新研究项目将利用这个时间有限的机会来研究一个非常基本的问题：增税对酒精饮料的价格有什么影响？该项目的第一个具体目标是全面描述阿拉斯加增税对酒精饮料价格的影响。我们将比较增税前后的价格，以确定增税对平均价格的影响程度，以及它是否改变了价格的范围。将在增税前后检查平均价格和价格范围：(1)跨饮料类型(啤酒、葡萄酒、烈性酒)；(2)跨品牌；(3)跨店类型(店内、店外)。该项目的第二个具体目标是对增税对价格的影响程度进行初步调查，以期因市场状况不同而有所不同。对税收转移的经济研究表明，根据市场竞争力，税收以不同的税率转嫁到价格上。我们将对加税前后的物价进行计量分析，以检验两个预测：a)加税完全转嫁到竞争激烈的本地零售市场的消费价格；b)加税以不同的速度转嫁到竞争不完全的本地零售市场的价格。为了完成该项目的具体目标，研究小组将收集阿拉斯加州酒精饮料价格的主要数据。我们建议对该州酒店内和酒店外酒类零售机构的普查进行电话调查。拟议中的调查将与目前正在进行的一项调查相同，该调查将提供增税前酒精饮料价格的数据。由于人们对酒类税上调对价格的影响知之甚少，这些探索性数据和初步分析将为政策以及未来酒类研究和经济学的研究提供信息。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The State of Alaska is about to: increase taxes on malt beverages from $0.35 per gallon to $1.07 per gallon; increase taxes on wine from $0.85 per gallon to $2.50 per gallon; and increase taxes on spirits from $5.60 per gallon to $12.50 per gallon. The net effect of the legislated changes is that a standard drink of beer, wine or spirits will be taxed at approximately 10 cents per standard drink. The proposed innovative research project will take advantage of this time-limited opportunity to study a very basic question: What is the impact of the tax hike on the prices of alcoholic beverages? The project's first specific aim is to describe comprehensively the impact of the Alaskan tax hike on alcoholic beverage prices. We will compare prices before and after the tax hike to determine the extent to which the tax increases prices on average and whether it changed the range of prices. The average and range of prices will be examined before and after the tax hike: (1) across beverage types (beer, wine, spirits); (2) across brands; and (3) across premise type (on-premise, off-premise). The project's second specific aim is to conduct a preliminary investigation of the extent to which the impact of the tax hike on prices varies due to different market conditions. Economic research on tax shifting suggests the hypothesis that taxes are passed through to prices at different rates depending upon market competitiveness. Econometric analysis of prices before and after the tax hike will be conducted to test two predictions: a) that the tax hike is fully passed through to consumer prices in competitive local retail markets, and b) that the tax hike is passed through to prices at a different rate in imperfectly competitive local retail markets. To complete the project's specific aims, the research team will collect primary data on alcoholic beverage prices in the State of Alaska. We propose to conduct a telephone survey of the census of on-premise and off-premise alcohol retail establishments in that State. The proposed survey will be identical to a survey currently in progress that will provide data on alcoholic beverage prices before the tax hike. Because so little is known about the impact of an alcohol tax hike on prices, these exploratory data and the preliminary analysis will be informative for policy and for future research in alcohol studies and economics.