Are Alcohol Tax Hikes Fully Passed Through to Prices?

描述（由申请人提供）：阿拉斯加州即将：将麦芽饮料税从每加仑0.35美元提高到每加仑1.07美元;将葡萄酒税从每加仑0.85美元提高到每加仑2.50美元;将烈酒税从每加仑5.60美元提高到每加仑12.50美元。立法变化的净影响是，啤酒、葡萄酒或烈酒的标准饮料将以每标准饮料约10美分的价格征税。拟议的创新研究项目将利用这一时间有限的机会研究一个非常基本的问题：加税对酒精饮料价格的影响是什么？该项目的第一个具体目标是全面描述阿拉斯加加税对酒精饮料价格的影响。我们将比较增税前后的价格，以确定增税平均提高价格的程度，以及是否改变了价格的范围。在加税之前和之后，将检查价格的平均值和范围：（1）跨饮料类型（啤酒，葡萄酒，烈酒）;（2）跨品牌;（3）跨场所类型（内部，外部）。该项目的第二个具体目标是对增税对价格的影响因市场条件不同而不同的程度进行初步调查。关于税收转移的经济学研究提出了一种假设，即税收根据市场竞争力以不同的税率转移到价格上。将对增税前后的价格进行计量经济学分析，以检验两个预测：a）在竞争性当地零售市场中，增税完全传递到消费者价格，以及B）在不完全竞争的当地零售市场中，增税以不同的速度传递到价格。为了完成该项目的具体目标，研究小组将收集阿拉斯加州酒精饮料价格的主要数据。我们建议对该州的内部和外部酒精零售机构进行电话调查。拟议的调查将与目前正在进行的一项调查相同，该调查将提供增税前酒精饮料价格的数据。由于对酒精税上调对价格的影响知之甚少，这些探索性数据和初步分析将为政策和未来的酒精研究和经济学研究提供信息。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The State of Alaska is about to: increase taxes on malt beverages from $0.35 per gallon to $1.07 per gallon; increase taxes on wine from $0.85 per gallon to $2.50 per gallon; and increase taxes on spirits from $5.60 per gallon to $12.50 per gallon. The net effect of the legislated changes is that a standard drink of beer, wine or spirits will be taxed at approximately 10 cents per standard drink. The proposed innovative research project will take advantage of this time-limited opportunity to study a very basic question: What is the impact of the tax hike on the prices of alcoholic beverages? The project's first specific aim is to describe comprehensively the impact of the Alaskan tax hike on alcoholic beverage prices. We will compare prices before and after the tax hike to determine the extent to which the tax increases prices on average and whether it changed the range of prices. The average and range of prices will be examined before and after the tax hike: (1) across beverage types (beer, wine, spirits); (2) across brands; and (3) across premise type (on-premise, off-premise). The project's second specific aim is to conduct a preliminary investigation of the extent to which the impact of the tax hike on prices varies due to different market conditions. Economic research on tax shifting suggests the hypothesis that taxes are passed through to prices at different rates depending upon market competitiveness. Econometric analysis of prices before and after the tax hike will be conducted to test two predictions: a) that the tax hike is fully passed through to consumer prices in competitive local retail markets, and b) that the tax hike is passed through to prices at a different rate in imperfectly competitive local retail markets. To complete the project's specific aims, the research team will collect primary data on alcoholic beverage prices in the State of Alaska. We propose to conduct a telephone survey of the census of on-premise and off-premise alcohol retail establishments in that State. The proposed survey will be identical to a survey currently in progress that will provide data on alcoholic beverage prices before the tax hike. Because so little is known about the impact of an alcohol tax hike on prices, these exploratory data and the preliminary analysis will be informative for policy and for future research in alcohol studies and economics.