The application of geostatistical analysis to the prediction and modelling of the decay dynamics of masonry materials

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Accurate prediction of the behaviour of masonry materials is crucial for building stone conservation and future building strategies. A long established body of research has provided increased understanding of the factors that trigger stone decay and an awareness of the unpredictability of decay dynamics. It is precisely this unpredictability of stone decay processes that can present significant problems when planning conservation and future stone building strategies. Previous research by the Weathering Research Group (WRG) at Queen's University Belfast, funded through EPSRC projects has centered on surface modification of building stones and feedback mechanisms in the decay of sandstones. This has provided a conceptual model of building stone decay This research aims to quantitatively test the conceptual model through 2D spatial analysis and 3D geostatistical modelling. Data recorded at a series of stages through weathering simulations, designed with the experience of established weathering studies, will be used to investigate trigger factors such as porosity, permeability, mineralogy and the mechanisms that perpetuate stone decay. Weathering simulations will be used to investigate the effect of salt surface concentration, salt penetration and accumulation at depth, to monitor and quantify relationships between variables, to ultimately predict and model the dynamics of stone decay. The field of rock weathering has yet to take full advantage of the field of geostatistics in terms of spatial prediction and simulation. In the light of this the proposed research project is aimed at providing a quantitative basis and predictive potency for the conceptual model of rapid sandstone retreat developed within the WRG and from established weathering studies. Geostatistical techniques will be used, in combination with geological and rock weathering interpretation, to facilitate the prediction and modelling of the dynamics of stone decay.