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Computational Models of Infectious Disease Threats

传染病威胁的计算模型

基本信息

批准号：
7458835
负责人：
DONALD SCOTT BURKE
金额：
$ 50.36万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2004-05-01 至 2009-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7458835
关键词：
AIDS therapy AIDS/HIV problem Academy Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Affect Airborne Particulate Matter Algorithms American Americas Animal Experimentation Appendix Archives Area Arthropod Vectors Award Bacteria Beds Bioinformatics Biological Biometry Biotechnology Bioterrorism Books Borrelia Climate Clinical Clinical Research Clinical Trials Collaborations Collection Communicable Diseases Communities Complex Computer Simulation Computer software Condition Contact Tracing Data Data Analyses Data Set Decision Making Decision Theory Demography Dengue Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Detection Development Dialysis procedure Disease Docking Doctor of Medicine Doctor of Philosophy Earthquakes Ecology Economics Educational process of instructing Ehrlichia Emergency Situation Emerging Communicable Diseases Encephalitis Engineering Environmental Engineering technology Environmental Health Epidemic Epidemiologic Methods Epidemiologic Studies Epidemiology Event Evolution Facility Construction Funding Category Faculty Foot-and-Mouth Disease Frequencies Game Theory Genetic Genetic Programming Geographic Information Systems Geography Glass Goals HIV Hantavirus Head Health Health Policy Healthcare Hepatitis E Human Human Resources Hygiene Imagery Immunity Immunology Incidence Individual Infectious Agent Infectious Disease Epidemiology Influenza Informatics Information Services Institute of Medicine (U.S.)Institutes Institution Interdisciplinary Study Internal Medicine International Internet Intervention Joints Journals Knowledge Laboratories Laboratory Research Laboratory Study Lead Legal patent Leptospira Libraries Location London Lung Machine Learning Maintenance Malaria Maryland Master&apos s Degree Mathematical Biology Mathematics Measles Measures Mechanics Methods Microbiology Military Personnel Modeling Modified Smallpox Molecular National Institute of General Medical Sciences National Security New York Nonlinear Dynamics Nonparametric Statistics Observational Study Oceanography Outcome Paper Pattern Physical Dialysis Play Policies Policy Maker Population Positioning Attribute Predisposition Pregnancy Outcome Prevention strategy Preventive Principal Investigator Prion Diseases Procedures Process Provider Proxy Public Health Public Health Schools Public Policy Publications Publishing Purpose Quarantine Rate Recording of previous events Reference Standards Relative (related person)Research Research Institute Research Methodology Research Personnel Rickettsia Risk Assessment Rodent Role Route Schedule Schools Science Scientist Screening procedure Security Series Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Signal Transduction Simulate Smallpox Social Network Social Sciences Societies Software Tools Space Flight Statistical Computing Statistical Models Structure Students System Systems Analysis Testing Theoretical model Time Time Series Analysis Training Tropical Medicine U-Series Cooperative Agreements Uncertainty United States United States National Academy of Sciences United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration Universities Vaccination Variant Vector-transmitted infectious disease Violence Viral Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers Virus Virus Diseases Visual Weather West Nile virus Work base biosecurity c new college computer science concept design disease natural history disease transmission disorder prevention disorder risk editorial experience improved indexing infectious disease model insight interest mathematical model member microbial models and simulation network models pathogen peer predictive modeling prevent professor programs remote sensing respiratory simulation skills social social organization sound theories tool transmission process user-friendly vaccination strategy

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Microbial threats, including bioterrorism and naturally emerging infectious diseases, pose a serious challenge to national security in the United States and to health worldwide. This proposal describes the creation of a center for computational modeling of infectious diseases at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, with the collaboration of key experts at the Brookings Institution, the National Aeronautic and Space Administration, the University of Maryland, and Imperial College (London). The overarching aim of this project is to integrate the most advanced and powerful techniques of epidemiological data analysis with those of computer simulation (agent-based modeling) to produce a unified computational epidemiology that is scientifically sound, highly visual and user-friendly, and responsive to biosecurity and public health policy requirements. Data analysis will be guided by the insight that epidemic patterns over space and time can be approached as nearly decomposable systems, in which frequency components of the incidence signal can be isolated and studied. Wavelet transforms, and empiric mode decomposition using Hilbert-Huang Transforms, will be used to sift nonlinear, nonstationary epidemiological data, allowing frequency band patterns to be defined. Isolated frequency modes will then be associated with external forcing (weather, social contact patterns) and internal dynamics (Kermack-McKendrick predator-prey models). Results of the epidemiological data decomposition analysis, along with the knowledge of infectious disease experts, will instruct the creation and development of agent-based models. Such models feature populations of mobile individuals in artificial societies that interact locally with other individuals. Features of the basic model include variable social network structures, individual susceptibility and immunity, incubation periods, transmission rates, contact rates, and other selectable parameters. After the agent-based model is calibrated to generate epidemic patterns consistent with real world epidemiology, preventive strategies including vaccination, contact tracing, isolation, quarantine, and other public health measures will be systematically introduced and their impact evaluated. Methods will be developed for assessing the utility of individual models, and for making decisions based on combined results from more than one model. Infectious diseases to be studied initially include smallpox, SARS, dengue, West Nile, and unknown but hypothetically plausible agents. As part of a Cooperative Agreement, the Center will work with other research groups, a bioinformatics core group, and the NIGMS to develop data sets, software and methods, agent-based models, and visualization tools. In an infectious disease epidemic emergency the Center will redirect its activities to serve the nation's security, as guided by the NIGMS.

描述（申请人提供）：微生物威胁，包括生物恐怖主义和自然出现的传染病，对美国的国家安全和全球健康构成了严重挑战。该提案描述了在约翰霍普金斯彭博公共卫生学院建立传染病计算建模中心的情况，该中心将与布鲁金斯研究所、美国国家航空航天局、马里兰州大学和帝国理工学院（伦敦）的主要专家合作。该项目的总体目标是将流行病学数据分析的最先进和最强大的技术与计算机模拟（基于代理的建模）相结合，以产生一个统一的计算流行病学，它在科学上是合理的，高度可视化和用户友好的，并响应生物安全和公共卫生政策的要求。数据分析将遵循这样的观点，即空间和时间上的流行模式可以近似为可分解的系统，其中可以分离和研究发病率信号的频率分量。小波变换和经验模式分解使用希尔伯特-黄变换，将被用来筛选非线性，非平稳的流行病学数据，允许频带模式被定义。孤立的频率模式，然后将与外部强迫（天气，社会接触模式）和内部动态（Kermack-McKendrick捕食者-猎物模型）。流行病学数据分解分析的结果，沿着传染病专家的知识，将指导基于主体的模型的创建和开发。这种模型的特点是人工社会中的移动的个体群体与其他个体进行本地交互。基本模型的特征包括可变的社会网络结构、个体易感性和免疫力、潜伏期、传播率、接触率和其他可选参数。在基于代理人的模型被校准以产生与真实的世界流行病学一致的流行病模式之后，将系统地引入预防策略，包括疫苗接种、接触者追踪、隔离、检疫和其他公共卫生措施，并评估其影响。将制定方法来评估各个模型的效用，并根据一个以上模型的综合结果作出决定。最初要研究的传染病包括天花、SARS、登革热、西尼罗河病毒和未知但假设合理的病原体。作为合作协议的一部分，该中心将与其他研究小组，生物信息学核心小组和NIGMS合作开发数据集，软件和方法，基于代理的模型和可视化工具。在传染病流行的紧急情况下，该中心将根据国家传染病管理局的指导，调整其活动方向，为国家安全服务。