Global scale impacts of climate change: a multi-sectoral analysis

气候变化的全球范围影响：多部门分析

• 批准号: NE/E001815/1
• 负责人: Nigel Arnell
• 金额: $ 13.57万
• 依托单位: University of Aberdeen
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2007 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FE001815%2F1
• 关键词: Global; scale; impacts; climate; change

Climate policy should be informed by robust and credible information on the impacts of climate change across the global domain; a global perspective also places local and regional impacts in context, and helps identify potential 'hotspots' for further scientific investigation. The project assesses the global-scale impact of climate change using a range of linked impact modules and impact indicators, representing impacts on water resources, flood risk, food production, biodiversity and human health and well-being on land, at the coast, and at sea. The project will synthesise and aggregrate across sectors and regions, using a variety of approaches, and allow the identification of the risks of specific impacts occurring at different rates of climate change. The methodology and results of the project also provide a framework for the assessment of the impacts of defined climate policies. First, it allows detailed geographically-explicit assessments of specific climate scenarios or climate policies, using the suite of linked models. Second, it allows the more rapid assessment of a very large number of climate outcomes (based for example on a probabilistic assessment of the climate effects of an emissions policy) using regionalised functions relating climate impact to indices of climate forcing. The project will be undertaken by a consortium of twelve lead partners, all with international reputations in the field of climate impact assessment.

气候政策应了解全球范围内气候变化影响的可靠信息;全球视角还将地方和区域影响置于背景中，并有助于确定进一步科学调查的潜在“热点”。该项目使用一系列相互关联的影响模块和影响指标，评估气候变化对全球范围的影响，这些模块和指标反映了对水资源、洪水风险、粮食生产、生物多样性以及陆地、沿海和海上人类健康和福祉的影响。该项目将使用各种方法综合和汇总各部门和各区域的情况，并能够确定在不同的气候变化速度下发生的具体影响的风险。该项目的方法和结果还为评估已确定的气候政策的影响提供了一个框架。首先，它允许使用一套链接模型对特定的气候情景或气候政策进行详细的地理上明确的评估。第二，它允许更快速地评估大量的气候结果（例如基于排放政策的气候影响的概率评估），使用区域化函数将气候影响与气候强迫指数联系起来。该项目将由一个由12个主要伙伴组成的联合体实施，这些伙伴都在气候影响评估领域享有国际声誉。

项目成果

Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments

• DOI: 10.5194/hess-15-897-2011
• 发表时间: 2011-01-01
• 期刊: HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Arnell, N. W.

A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change

• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1793
• 发表时间: 2013-05-01
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Arnell, N. W.;Lowe, J. A.;Warren, R. F.
• 通讯作者: Warren, R. F.

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7
• 发表时间: 2016-02
• 期刊: Climatic Change
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: N. Arnell;Sally Brown;S. Gosling;J. Hinkel;C. Huntingford;B. Lloyd‐Hughes;J. Lowe;T. Osborn;R. Nicholls;P. Zelazowski

Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1277-y
• 发表时间: 2016-02-01
• 期刊: CLIMATIC CHANGE
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Dawson, Terence P.;Perryman, Anita H.;Osborne, Tom M.
• 通讯作者: Osborne, Tom M.

Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0925-y
• 发表时间: 2016-02-01
• 期刊: CLIMATIC CHANGE
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Brown, Sally;Nicholls, Robert J.;Hinkel, Jochen
• 通讯作者: Hinkel, Jochen