Impacts of Future Environmental Change on Climate- and Air Pollution-Mediated Human Health

臭氧形成在大气层最低的10-15公里处，被称为对流层，是一种有害的空气污染物，已知会增加人类呼吸道疾病的发生率。事实上，欧洲最近2003年的热浪表明，人口容易受到臭氧暴露和极端温度的影响。然而，研究和政策倾向于独立地关注臭氧和温度对健康的影响。未来气候的变化将通过其化学生产和运输的变化来改变臭氧，而臭氧本身则对未来的气候产生反馈作用。气候变化还将增加高温极端天气的发生率。此外，发展中国家的快速工业化趋势可能会导致未来臭氧本底水平的增加。因此，对于关注减轻气候和空气质量对人类健康影响的政策制定者来说，了解未来对流层臭氧和热波事件可能如何变化，特别是它们对人类健康的相互影响是极其重要的。这项提案汇集了环境和健康学科的科学家，为英国进行创新研究，以定量评估气候变化和臭氧产生气体排放对人类健康的未来影响。我们将使用最先进的高分辨率化学-气候耦合模型，并开发复杂的暴露-反应关系统计模型，以调查未来与温度和臭氧有关的健康影响。特别是，将调查各种易感人群对夏季极端温度(如2003年8月热浪中所经历的温度)与臭氧暴露与死亡率的关系的敏感性。然后将为未来的排放和气候情景估计未来臭氧浓度和温度极值的联合分布，并评估英国各城市相应的与臭氧相关的人口健康负担和空气质量超标。这项工作将提高我们对气候和空气污染造成的健康负担目前和未来变化的理解。它还将为政策制定者提供关于未来是否有必要修订与臭氧空气质量标准有关的现行政策的见解。

Ozone formed in the lowest 10-15km of the atmosphere, which is called the troposphere, is a hazardous air pollutant, known to increase the incidence of human respiratory diseases. Indeed, the recent heat wave of 2003 in Europe has demonstrated population vulnerability to ozone exposure and temperature extremes. However, research and policy has tended to focus on health impacts of ozone and temperature independently. Future changes in climate will modify ozone through changes in its chemical production and transport, whilst ozone itself feedbacks on future climate. Climate change will also increase the incidence of high temperature extremes. In addition, rapid industrialisation trends in the developing world are likely to lead to increased background levels of ozone in the future. Understanding how tropospheric ozone and heat wave episodes may change in the future, and, in particular, their interactive effects on human health, is therefore an extremely important for policy makers concerned with mitigation of the impacts of climate and air quality on human health. This proposal brings together scientists in environmental and health disciplines to perform innovative research towards a quantitative assessment of future impacts for human health of changes in climate and emissions of ozone producing gases, for the UK. We will use a state-of-the art high resolution coupled chemistry-climate model and develop sophisticated statistical models of exposure-response relationships to investigate future health impacts related to temperature and ozone. In particular, the sensitivity of ozone exposure-mortality relationship to summertime extreme temperatures such as those experienced in the August 2003 heat wave will be investigated for various susceptible population groups. Future joint distributions of ozone concentrations and temperature extremes will then be estimated for a future emission and climate scenario, and corresponding ozone-related population health burdens and air quality exceedences across UK cities evaluated. This work will improve our understanding of present-day and future changes in health burdens as mediated by climate and air pollution. It will also provide insight for policy makers as to whether a revision of current policy related to ozone air quality standards is warranted in the future.