Impacts of Future Environmental Change on Climate- and Air Pollution-Mediated Human Health

臭氧形成于大气最低10-15公里的对流层，是一种危险的空气污染物，已知会增加人类呼吸系统疾病的发病率。事实上，2003年欧洲最近的热浪已经表明，人们容易受到臭氧暴露和极端温度的影响。然而，研究和政策倾向于单独关注臭氧和温度对健康的影响。未来的气候变化将通过臭氧的化学生产和运输的变化来改变臭氧，而臭氧本身也会对未来的气候产生反馈。气候变化也将增加极端高温的发生。此外，发展中国家的快速工业化趋势很可能导致未来臭氧本底水平的增加。因此，了解对流层臭氧和热浪事件在未来可能如何变化，特别是它们对人类健康的相互影响，对于关注减轻气候和空气质量对人类健康影响的决策者来说是极其重要的。这项建议将环境和健康学科的科学家聚集在一起，为英国开展创新研究，以定量评估气候变化和产生臭氧的气体排放对人类健康的未来影响。我们将使用最先进的高分辨率耦合化学-气候模型，并开发复杂的暴露-反应关系统计模型，以调查与温度和臭氧有关的未来健康影响。特别是，将对各种易感人群调查臭氧暴露-死亡率关系对夏季极端温度的敏感性，例如2003年8月的热浪。然后，将根据未来的排放和气候情景估计未来臭氧浓度和极端温度的联合分布，并评估英国各城市与臭氧相关的相应人口健康负担和空气质量超标情况。这项工作将增进我们对气候和空气污染介导的健康负担的当前和未来变化的理解。它还将为政策制定者提供见解，说明今后是否有必要修订与臭氧空气质量标准有关的现行政策。

Ozone formed in the lowest 10-15km of the atmosphere, which is called the troposphere, is a hazardous air pollutant, known to increase the incidence of human respiratory diseases. Indeed, the recent heat wave of 2003 in Europe has demonstrated population vulnerability to ozone exposure and temperature extremes. However, research and policy has tended to focus on health impacts of ozone and temperature independently. Future changes in climate will modify ozone through changes in its chemical production and transport, whilst ozone itself feedbacks on future climate. Climate change will also increase the incidence of high temperature extremes. In addition, rapid industrialisation trends in the developing world are likely to lead to increased background levels of ozone in the future. Understanding how tropospheric ozone and heat wave episodes may change in the future, and, in particular, their interactive effects on human health, is therefore an extremely important for policy makers concerned with mitigation of the impacts of climate and air quality on human health. This proposal brings together scientists in environmental and health disciplines to perform innovative research towards a quantitative assessment of future impacts for human health of changes in climate and emissions of ozone producing gases, for the UK. We will use a state-of-the art high resolution coupled chemistry-climate model and develop sophisticated statistical models of exposure-response relationships to investigate future health impacts related to temperature and ozone. In particular, the sensitivity of ozone exposure-mortality relationship to summertime extreme temperatures such as those experienced in the August 2003 heat wave will be investigated for various susceptible population groups. Future joint distributions of ozone concentrations and temperature extremes will then be estimated for a future emission and climate scenario, and corresponding ozone-related population health burdens and air quality exceedences across UK cities evaluated. This work will improve our understanding of present-day and future changes in health burdens as mediated by climate and air pollution. It will also provide insight for policy makers as to whether a revision of current policy related to ozone air quality standards is warranted in the future.