Assessing Density of Alcohol Outlets, Other Outlets and Crime

描述（由申请人提供）：减少与酒精有关的问题（包括各种类型的犯罪）的潜在方法是通过改变环境因素（如酒精的可获得性）来降低总体饮酒率。我们的目标是评估酒精场所的密度——可用性的一种衡量标准——是否与酒精相关的犯罪有关，以及其他物理结构（例如，非酒精企业、公园）的存在和社区活动的水平是否会缓和这种影响。我们建议在两个中西部城市进行一项为期三年的研究，以评估：(1)不同类型酒精场所的密度是否与各种与酒精有关的犯罪（例如暴力犯罪、财产犯罪）呈正相关；(2)非酒类企业和其他社区物理结构（即公园、学校和宗教机构）的密度以及社区活动水平与犯罪率相关；(3)这些社区结构和活动调节了观察到的酒精场所密度与不同类型犯罪之间的关联。以前的研究已经评估了酒精场所密度与犯罪之间的关系，但受到评估的犯罪结果类型和/或缺乏对空间自相关性的控制的限制。此外，研究人员还没有评估潜在的调节作用，如社区物理结构或社区活动。我们将使用档案数据，包括以下数据：(1)酒精场所，(2)非酒精企业，(3)公园、学校和宗教机构，以及(4)UCR第一类和第二类犯罪。为了进一步评估公园，我们将对这两个城市的所有公园进行观察。为了评估社区内的积极性，我们将对社区协会进行电话调查。我们将使用贝叶斯分析方法来解决每个研究问题，控制可能混淆观察到的关系的社区和人口统计和执法变量（通过电话调查收集）的空间自相关性。本研究的结果将促进研究文献的发展，并为政策和社区发展提供信息。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Potential method to reduce alcohol-related problems, including various types of crime, is to decrease overall drinking rates by changing environmental factors such as the availability of alcohol. Our goal is to evaluate whether density of alcohol establishments' -- one measure of availability -- is related to alcohol-related crime and whether the presence of other physical structures (e.g., non-alcohol businesses, parks) and levels of neighborhood activism moderate this effect. We propose to conduct a three-year study in two Midwestern cities to assess whether: (1) densities of different types of alcohol establishments are positively related to a wide range of alcohol-related crimes (e.g., violent crime, property crime); (2) densities of non-alcohol businesses and other neighborhood physical structures (i.e., parks, schools, and religious institutions), and levels of neighborhood activism are associated with crime rates; and (3) these neighborhood structures and activism moderate the observed associations between densities of alcohol establishments and different types of crime. Previous studies have assessed the relationship between density of alcohol establishments and crime but are limited by types of crime outcomes assessed and/or lack of control for spatial autocorrelation. Additionally, researchers have not assessed potential moderating effects such as neighborhood physical structures or neighborhood activism. We will use archival data, including data on: (1) alcohol establishments, (2) non-alcohol businesses, (3) parks, schools, and religious institutions, and (4) UCR category I and II crimes. To further assess parks, we will conduct observations of all parks in the two cites. To assess activism within neighborhoods, we will conduct a telephone survey of neighborhood associations. We will use Bayesian analytical methods to address each research question, controlling for spatial autocorrelation across neighborhoods and demographic and enforcement variables (collected through a telephone survey) that may confound the observed relationships. Results from this study will advance the research literature and inform policy and neighborhood development.