Assessing Density of Alcohol Outlets, Other Outlets and Crime

描述（由申请人提供）：减少酒精相关问题（包括各种类型的犯罪）的潜在方法是通过改变环境因素（如酒精的可用性）来降低总体饮酒率。我们的目标是评估酒精场所的密度--一种可用性的衡量标准--是否与酒精相关的犯罪有关，以及其他物理结构（例如，非酒精企业，公园）和邻里活动的水平缓和了这种影响。我们建议在中西部两个城市进行一项为期三年的研究，以评估：（1）不同类型的酒精场所的密度是否与各种与酒精有关的犯罪呈正相关（例如，暴力犯罪、财产犯罪）;（2）非酒精商业和其它邻近物理结构的密度（即，公园，学校和宗教机构），以及邻里活动的水平与犯罪率相关;（3）这些邻里结构和活动缓和了酒精设施密度和不同类型犯罪之间的观察到的关联。以前的研究已经评估了酒精设施的密度和犯罪之间的关系，但有限的类型的犯罪结果评估和/或缺乏控制的空间自相关。此外，研究人员还没有评估潜在的调节效应，如邻里的物理结构或邻里的积极性。我们将使用档案数据，包括：（1）酒精设施，（2）非酒精企业，（3）公园，学校和宗教机构，以及（4）UCR I类和II类犯罪。为进一步评估公园，我们会对两个城市的所有公园进行观察。为了评估社区内的行动主义，我们将对社区协会进行电话调查。我们将使用贝叶斯分析方法来解决每个研究问题，控制可能混淆观察到的关系的邻里和人口统计和执法变量（通过电话调查收集）的空间自相关。这项研究的结果将推动研究文献，并为政策和社区发展提供信息。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Potential method to reduce alcohol-related problems, including various types of crime, is to decrease overall drinking rates by changing environmental factors such as the availability of alcohol. Our goal is to evaluate whether density of alcohol establishments' -- one measure of availability -- is related to alcohol-related crime and whether the presence of other physical structures (e.g., non-alcohol businesses, parks) and levels of neighborhood activism moderate this effect. We propose to conduct a three-year study in two Midwestern cities to assess whether: (1) densities of different types of alcohol establishments are positively related to a wide range of alcohol-related crimes (e.g., violent crime, property crime); (2) densities of non-alcohol businesses and other neighborhood physical structures (i.e., parks, schools, and religious institutions), and levels of neighborhood activism are associated with crime rates; and (3) these neighborhood structures and activism moderate the observed associations between densities of alcohol establishments and different types of crime. Previous studies have assessed the relationship between density of alcohol establishments and crime but are limited by types of crime outcomes assessed and/or lack of control for spatial autocorrelation. Additionally, researchers have not assessed potential moderating effects such as neighborhood physical structures or neighborhood activism. We will use archival data, including data on: (1) alcohol establishments, (2) non-alcohol businesses, (3) parks, schools, and religious institutions, and (4) UCR category I and II crimes. To further assess parks, we will conduct observations of all parks in the two cites. To assess activism within neighborhoods, we will conduct a telephone survey of neighborhood associations. We will use Bayesian analytical methods to address each research question, controlling for spatial autocorrelation across neighborhoods and demographic and enforcement variables (collected through a telephone survey) that may confound the observed relationships. Results from this study will advance the research literature and inform policy and neighborhood development.